Risk and Reward-Thursday Night

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By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition

I wished to give my take on the NE vs TB.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

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Figure 3 Thursday Night NE vs. TB Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 46 points) NE 35 vs TB 28

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Looking at the data, the total points for this game should be near 55 points or higher of scoring (Shootout?)  I see a higher total near 63 points!

I envision a skewed game where NE scores 35 and the TB team are 28  point producers. The defenses will be easy (Figure 3) and the last team with the ball could win. Thursday games have been lower scoring than usually thought but for FF lets think of this as a normal fought game with high scoring! Note that Gronk has some issues of injury and check to see if he plays. Allen the TE can be a useful sub if needed!


Figure 4. NE Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk 

When Brady (low risk 98 ranked QB) has the ball he faces an easy defense of +25 Overall DAPs. Nice! He faces a personal +10.3 QB DAP! He should score 4 TDs against this defensive landscape!

The NE WRs are going to feast tonight going into a +17.9 WR DAP. Expect all to score. Hogan might get you 2 TDs! Hogan Cooks and Danny are all low-risk types this week! Ranked 88, 94, and 73 respectively!

Gronk (100 ranked Low Risk) has a little tougher DAP of -0.5. Its an average game for him and I TDs is expected!

The mysterious NEs will see the toughest go battling a -3.4 RB DAP. They will just need to keep the Tampa D honest to help Brady pass and score! White is a mid-risk ranked at 78! Gillislee is also mid-risk and 75 ranked. I would not play them in DFS. Stick to the QB, TE (Gronk) and WRs this week!

The game key is the NE RBs abilities to do the check-downs and rush enough to free up the WR and TE crews to score! 


NE

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Figure 5. TB Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk

Winston the QB is ranked at 91 and low risk because the NE defense has been so kind to QBs! He faces a +9.2 QB DAP. Expect him to get 3 to 4 TDs!

The TB WRs are crossing swords against an + 10.3 DAP. Feast of TDs for them as well! Evans is at 100 and low risk! Jackson however, in this great matchup remains at mid-risk and at 78. He has not integrated into the TB WRs yet. Humphries the check-down WR has an opportunity to grab 5 catches and a score! He is high risk and 50 ranked!  DFS tournament play?

The TEs of Brate and Howard have that thunder and lightning theme going! I ranked Brate at 89 and mid-risk. Howard is a low risk but at 61! They both have scoring potential vs a sweet +7.3 TE DAP. DFS plays both this week! Howard, if you are in a bind, can be a TD savior!

The RB crew is mid risk all because Martin is coming back. He will be as per the coach “significantly in the mix” but others are there as well. Martin is at 68, Rodgers at 51 and Sims at 31! Maybe Sims gets more catches/score as Martin could get rushing defense attention! They all face an easy +5 RB DAP and can score!

The game fulcrum for the TB is based on the TE production. If they can get 2 TDs or more, the TB team can win!


TB

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