Monday Night Risk Reward Week 4

Slide5

By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 4 

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 4 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.


Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 


Predicted Total Game Points

2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green


Monday Night Risk Reward Week 4 Slide1


Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 4 Slide23


Figures 3  Week 4 TEAM PLAYER Counts by Risk Levels

Slide16

Note WAS has the Second Highest High-Risk Player Counts this week!  

However, KC has an above average player count of risky players as well!


High Scoring Games Predicted for Monday Night

The risky player counts (Figure 3) and the defenses involved add to the uncertainty of this game for me. The game is predicted to be a high score game with total game points near 50.


Monday Night Game

KC vs WAS


KC vs WAS

The Chiefs, are facing a tough defense giving -2.3 DAP overall. This may be the toughest test yet. They are playing at home and that always adds a TD extra to the mix!

Smith has been a surprise for me this year and again faces a tough -3.5 QB DAP! He should score 2 TDs! I have him at a high risk 49 ranking!

Hunt the phenom RB faces a -2.2 DAP and will have an average game which is still good! 2TDs are expected even against a tough DAP! I have him at low-risk 100 ranking!

This should be a Kelce week and he faces a +3.1 DAP. He scores once and will grab 6 catches! He could stretch into 2 TDs when looking at his TE DAP! I have him as a 96 and low risk!

The WRs, mainly Hill faces a super tough -8.8 DAP! If he can produce this week he is matchup proof! I have him at mid-risk at 87! Maybe a score! The other WRs might luck out and get a score but they are high-risk!

KC has Hunt as it game fulcrum! Their fate is linked to Hunt’s performance tonight!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 4 KC


Monday Night Risk Reward Week 4 KC vs WAS

————————————————————————————————————————-

 

Tonight WAS has ALL its major players at High to Mid Risk! I do not remember a situation as this!

WAS faces a slightly tough defense at -0.6! Cousins is going into a fight with a -1.6 QB DAP! I have him 69 but high risk! He could score 0 to 4 TDs! The definition of Risk is Kirk Cousins!

Jordan Reed/Vernon Davis battle a -1.5 TE DAP. It is unclear what happens. Given Reed’s injury issues he could suck up playing time from the healthy Davis and though both are limited! They are both High Risk and ranked at 77 to 62 (Reed to Davis). They could score 2TDs or zero!

The WRs cross swords with the Chiefs +0.9 WR DAP. It is unclear who steps up? Crowder is Mid-Risk ranked at 75! Proyor is High-Risk and at 67!

Finally, the WAS game fulcrum is the RBs especially Chris Thompson! He faces a +1.5 RB DAP. This KC defense weakness might lead to an upset! WAS upsets if Thompson scores 2TDs! I have him at Hisk-Risk 78! Kelly/Perine could add a score as well!

————————————————————————————————————————-

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 4 WAS

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>