Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4

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By John Bush

Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 Games Edition

My Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Two High Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Below is my Sunday Game Groups by Game Script Segmentation. I will suggest you use these game in DFS as well as tiebreakers for close decisions. These two games are predicted to have game totals at 50 or higher points.

HIGH SHOOTS FIG

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NO vs MIA

A nice game script for lots-o-scoring! Play many in here! 

MIA vs NO

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When MIA is on offense, They face a very easy NO defense! Culter gets healthy against a +1.4 DAP overall and an insane +6.9 DAP! He should get you 4 TDs or so! Culter is mid risk and ranked 60.

Ajayi is actually the only way that the passing game is not over the top! Ayayi is going into a +6.4 RB DAP! Expect 1 or 2 TDs from the RBs!

The WRs face an easy DAP of +4. Each of the 3 should get 1 TD. Parker could grab 2 TDs! Landry and Parker are low risks and 87 ranked. Stills is high risk and a flex player type!

No TE action is really expected!

MIA

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MIA vs NO

Brees and company win and score close to 4 TDs! Brees is ranked 92 low risk vs a -1.2 DAP (average Brees away game). If he was at home he would score 6 TDs!

The RBs face a -1.6 DAP and I do have Ingram at high risk ranked 75! Hard to see him getting more than one score if at all!. I have Kamura at low risk ranked 63! This pass catcher will get one TD! T

The WRs add Snead back and face an average +0.4 DAPIt’sts a lot of folks to feed! I expect Thomas 97 ranked low-risk WR to score 2 TDs! If Snead if ready he scores or Ginn gets a long TD score!

Fleener has a favorable DAP of +2.4 and is 77 high risk in PPR. He should have 6 catches and maybe a score!

NO

NE vs CAR

NE continues against a tough opponent!

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HIGH SHOOTS FIG

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NE vs CAR

When NE is on point, they should own the CAR team! Brady will get us 5 TDs. He is going against the CAR defense and -5.5 DAP. This does concern me! I still have him a low risk and 97 ranking!

The NE RB crew faces a tough -5.2 DAP and will struggle to score. I have White and Gillislee as mid risk and near a 70 ranking! If Brady take the game over early them these RBs score!

The NE WRs vs a -2.9 DAP. Brady will be using Cooks and Hogan. One will get you multiple scores! They are in a PPR,  mid-risk between 70 to 83 ranking.

Finally Gronk vs a -4.7 DAP.  He is a low-risk TE and rated 100 (top). He will benefit with Brady throwing the ball all over. Expect a score or two!

NE

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NE vs CAR

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Cam Newton will face an apparent easy NE defense. That statement seems kinda weird as we are used to a strong NE defense! Cam faces a +9 DAP and he should get 2 TDs! The main show will be McCaffery the RB going against a +9.7 DAP. I have him as 90 ranked and low risk! I expect multiple scores! The WRs are going against a +4.3 and maybe one of

The main show will be McCaffery the RB going against a +9.7 DAP. I have him as 90 ranked and low risk! I expect multiple scores! The WRs are going against a +4.3 and maybe one of

The WRs are going against a +4.3 and maybe one of them scores. Benjamin and Funches are both mid risk 60 to 70 ranked! I am not confident! The TE should score but given its Dickson, I rank him at 40 but low risk!

The TE should score but given its Dickson, I rank him at 40 but low risk!

CAR

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Four Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Below there are 4 Sunday Game Groups by above-average action. I will suggest you maybe use these games in DFS as well as tiebreakers for close decisions. These four games are predicted to have game totals at 46 to 49.

Above Average Scoring Game

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ATL vs BUF

ATL crushes the Bills! 

ATL vs BUF

Ryan faces a tough DAP of -5.6 and yet I rank them 91 and low risk! He should get 3 TDs! Freeman will score against a tough -7.2 DAP. I have Freeman at 92 mid risk because of the DAP!

The WRs and JJ will score multiplies. He faces a -4.9 defense! I have him low risk 99! The other two WRs might get a score as well. Hooper the TE vs a -3.3 DAP. He may get 4 grabs!

ATL

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ATL vs BUF

Can Taylor slip into the end zone this week? He will need a rushing TDs to help his owners! The Bills will be playing catch up and will need all their weapons! Taylor is lowly ranked at 43 mid risk. I have concerns against even an average DAP of -0.2. McCoy vs +4.7 DAP and thus figures for multiple scores and will be the engine for any Bills upset! He is low risk and 94 ranked in PPR!

McCoy vs +4.7 DAP and thus figures for multiple scores and will be the engine for any Bills upset! He is low risk and 94 ranked in PPR!

Clay vs a -2 DAP. If McCoy gets the ATL defense attention, Clay could score via misdirection!

The WRs are also fighting a -1.9 DAP and are lowly ranked and risky players! Not expecting much!

BUF

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DAL vs LAR

Dallas spanks the RAM! Case closed!

LAR vs DAL

When DALs is going, they face a stout Defense of -5 DAP. The main game fulcrum is Elliot facing a +9 DAP. Multiple scores expected and he leads the Cowboys to win. He will grind on the defense and can loosen up the passing defense of LAR!

DAK faces a -2 DAP and still will score later in the game! His TE Witten vs a -1.5 and Dez and WRs face a tough -1.7. Witten is a nice low risk 87 ranked. He continues to score this week!

Witten is a nice low risk 87 ranked. He continues to score this week!

Dez is a low risk 91 ranked and can catch later in the game a score or two! Beasley and T. Will grab 10 balls between them and a score! Both are mid risk low ranked!

DAL

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LAR vs DAL

When LAR is on, they face an average DAP of 0. Geoff has a chance to score 3 or so TDs and can redeem himself! He faces a +1.5 DAP. I rank him however as a high risk at 31. That may be his ceiling!

Gurley will come back to earth and but still get us an average game with a score or two. No hat-trick this week!  He faces a -0.6 DAP and is low risk 96 ranked!

The TE will be hidden this week vs a -0.7 and is at mid-risk!

Finally, the WRs group have the best chances for several TDs vs +2.8 DAP! Watkins scores once and is the best WR this week at 81 but at high risk!

LAR

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LAC vs PHI

Close game. Flip a coin! Scoring expected

LAC vs PHI

LAC this week is facing a tough overall defense of -2 DAP. Rivers the old general will face a +2.6 and can carve up the PHi defense! Expect 3 TDs.

Gordon the RB faces a tough go of -2.5 DAP. I ranked him a low risk 87 ranked. One score seems right!

The excellent WRs will catch the 3 TDs from River. Allen and Co go against a +3.9 DAP. Nice! Allen is mid risk at 92 though! Multiple TDs are Allen’s goal this week!

LAC

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LAC vs PHI

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PHI is going up into a +0.4 average game script. PHI wins with Wentz throwing 3 TDs at his WRs and maybe TE! He goes against a -0.5 DAP.

The PHI RBs go against a -0.6 DAP and we will see if Smallwood brings his large game! Blount can score as well in the red zone! I expect up to 2 TDs! Smallwood is high risk at 58 and Blount a low ranked 47 at mid- risk!

Ertz should deliver and will be the game’s fulcrum. If he multiple scores the PHI team wins. He is ranked a nice low risk 97 TE this week. He can shock the chargers this week!

PHI

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DEN vs OAK

This game is a coin flip!

OAK vs DEN

Siemian will be facing an easy defense of +1.4 Overall DAP! He will score multiples vs a +3.7. His tandem of WRs face a -0.8 DAP and should still produce for Siemian! I rate Siemian a mid-risk 62 ranking. Thomas and Sanders are low-risk types ranked about 90. I expect they will score 3 TDs between them.

The rushing game will face a +0.6 DAP. All running backs are low risk and CJ is at 85 and Charles is at 55!. Scoring is possible but I expect the passing game is the winner for the Team!  TEs face a -0.4 DAP but they will be quite this week!

DEN

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OAK vs DEN

The OAK team has the players to win but their top WR Crabtree may not play! Goff is a low ranked high risk given the situation! Goff does see an easy +1.2 DAP and that is how the OAK team wins!

Lynch the RB faces a tough tough DAP of -7.7! I expect little from the ground game. I rank Lynch as a mid-risk type ranked at 65! Maybe the other two RBs catch a pass for a score in the red zone?

The TE Cook is the key for victory. He is a nice ranked TE at 79 low risk. He faces a +2.9 DAP and should score once or more. If he delivers multiple scores the OAK team might beat DEN!

Finally, the WRs for OAK are facing a -1.2 DAP. Cooper should generate multiple scores if he does not drop the ball! Crabtree should also score if he plays! I, however, assign him a high-risk player ranked at 73!

OAK

Four Below Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Below there are 4 Sunday Game Groups by above-average action. I will suggest you not use these games much in DFS. These four games are predicted to have game totals at 42 to 45.

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Below Average Scoring Games

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ARI vs SF

ARI Wins and Scores Multiples in here!

ARI vs SF

Palmer should get the victory and have an average game for him (3 TDS). He faces an overall +2.4 DAP and is going into a +0.1 QB DAP! All signs support Palmer having a nice passing game!

CJ2K should lead the charge and get 2 TDS! He faces a +4.9 DAP! Nice! He is ranked though mid/high-risk and ranked 47 to 57 (PPR to NPPR). This is a case that the past should lead you to rank a player lower but going against a nice +4.9 DAP and his history, the numbers may be underestimating him this week! I also think Ellington will score by pass catching a score!

Larry Fitz the future Hall of Famer WR gets a nice +3.3 WR DAP. Expect 2 of 3 TDs from Palmer are his. I rank him low risk 92 WR this week! JJ Nelson could if healthy score as well but is low to mid risk WR!

The TE is quiet this week vs a -5 DAP!

ARI

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ARI vs SF

SF faces an average game at a +0 DAP! Hoyer has an opportunity to score! He faces a nice +3.2 DAP and I rank him at a low risk but at a 5 rank. He is so up and down, I have concerns! The strength of this team, the rushing game, is going against a -3.4 DAP. One Team’s strength vs a Defense’s strength! A test indeed! Hyde FYI has injuries and may not play! SF wins if Breida breaks out!

Hyde FYI has injuries and may not play! SF wins if Breida breaks out! Hyde is a low risk once and if he plays and would be ranked at 85! Be cautious!

Garcon should score if Hoyer can perform! Garcon is low risk and 80 ranked!

Kittle the TE faces a -3.5 DAP and will not produce. A few grabs likely only!

SF

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HOU vs TEN

A close game that TEN wins! 

HOU vs TEN

Mariota should win this game but the HOU is a tough D and presents the TEN team a -0.6 overall DAP! Mariota is a high risk ranked at 68 QB this week! He should get you 2 TDs. Mariota’s WRs face a nice +3.4 DAP. They as a group are the key to victory! Can Decker, Matthews or Taylor catch a score or two? Decker and Matthews are low

Mariota’s WRs face a nice +3.4 DAP. They as a group are the key to victory! Can Decker, Matthews or Taylor catch a score or two? Decker and Matthews are low risk ranked around 60 this week. Hard to predict the scoring. Matthew will be a nice PPR play and get a lot of catches. They should lead to the red zone opportunities!

Walker the TE is going against a +0.4 and wills core this week! If he scores two score that seals the deal for TEN! Walker is low risk and ranked 89!

Finally, the most variable position for TEN is the RBs! They face a tough -2.6 DAP. If HOU defense bottles up the rushing game that might lead to an HOU upset! In PPR, I have Murray is a mid risk vs that -2.6 DAP and ranked 75! Henry figure to be quiet this week! He is high risk ranked at 53!

TEN

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HOU vs TEN

HOU will have to work to win but the route is clear vs a +2.0 overall DAP! Watson is mid-risk QB at 37 ranking! He may surprise all vs a +5.4 DAP and having Fuller the WR coming back adds to the intrigue of this game!

The WRs see a nice +5.9 DAP and Hopkins, the top WR is ranked at a high risk 89. Fuller is ranked at high risk 25! These risk values are due to the QB Watson!

The TE, Griffin, is going into a +0.4 DAP and can score. He could surprise the TEN defense!

Finally, the rushing strength of HOU is going against the TEN Defense’s strength! Miller goes into a -2.6! He is low risk and ranked 72 in PPR. Maybe he scores! Ervin could grab a catch or two and the X factor is Foreman low risk ranked at 41! If HOU rushers multiple scores then HOU wins!

HOU

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NYG vs TB

Close game. U pick em! 

TB vs NYG

NYG faces a -0.8 DAP and will have to fight to win! Eli is always mid to high risk and ranked at 29. Not a strong play this week! Eli does get a personal +5.6 QB DAP. He has the tools to score and should get 3 TDs! The WRs face a +15! That is very easy DAP and will lead to multiples! OBJ is low risk and ranked 99 and will score 2X!

The WRs face a +15! That is very easy DAP and will lead to multiples! OBJ is low risk and ranked 99 and will score 2X! Marshall is an unknown variable here. he is high risk and ranked 51! Shepard should be the WR to collect grabs and a score. He is low risk and at 72 ranking!

Engram is a very nice TE but has a tough DAP of -4.9 DAP and is expected to be quiet!

The mysterious NYG rushing game faces a -1.6 DAP and will be present to keep the TB defense honest so ELI can pass and pass! All the RBs are mid to high risk and lowly ranked!

NYG

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TB vs NYG

TB faces an easy +1.7 DAP and thus this game is theirs to lose! Winston is a low-risk QB at 61!. He should get 3X scores!

Evans and Jackson should be able to overcome a -7.7 DAP! That does limit the situation! Evans is a low-risk 94 ranked WR! Jackson could surprise at 72 ranking but a mid-level risk!

Everyone is running to get C Brate the TE because he is going against the weakness of the NYG defense generating a+4.3 DAP. Winston should connect 1X or 2X. That will open up the game for the WRs to score later in the game!

Finally Rodgers the RB has to do it this week. He faces a +1.2 DAP. He should score! He is the fulcrum of the TB game. If he scores the TB team wins! That forces the NYG defense to play for the run and eases the pressure on Evans etc!

TB

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DET vs MIN

Toss up game!

MIN vs DET

Keenum is low risk but low ranked at 19! He should score multiples in spite of his skills because of his strong WRs!  He faces a tough -1.4 DAP to limit him and makes this game close!

The MIN RBs have an opportunity and will win the game for MIN! D Cook goes against a +1.5 DAP and will lead to 2X scoring! That opens the passing game up for Keenum!

The WRs of Diggs and Thielen should get 2X TDs or more! The game totals may be higher than thought!

Rudolph is a good TE but Keenum has not targeted him much! He will fight into a -0.8 DAP. He is in a best case a low risk 92 ranking. Keenum must get him in the game to ensure a win!

MIN

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MIN vs DET

DET should beat the MIN but they face a tough team especially because the MIN WRs These MIN WRs make this game closer than most think! Stafford goes into an easy +2.0 overall DAP and faces a +1 QB DAP! He is still high risk and ranked at 51. This may be a harsh ranking but

Stafford goes into an easy +2.0 overall DAP and faces a +1 QB DAP! He is still high risk and ranked at 51. This may be a harsh ranking but it’s an away game for DET!

Golden Tate has been gold in PPR and has to compete against a +7 DAP. That should give him a shot at a TD hat-trick! Tate is low risk and high ranked WR at 85! Not expecting much from the other WRs! These will need to active enough to get TATE open!

The TE Ebron vs a +1.2 DAP will lead to a score! I have him as a nice low risk ranked at 76 this week!

The downside for the DET team is the RBs. They face a tough tough -9. Abdullah will just need to keep the MIN defense honest! He is a high risk though and 66 ranking! I like Riddick this week to score and I consider him a mid risk 69 ranked. The DET passing game will give Riddick opportunity to collect a TD or two. He is the fulcrum of victory!

det3.png

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Three Low Scoring High Defense Games

Expect good defensive plays here! Total game points below 40 ish. 4 to 5 TDs total at best for both teams together!

Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4  LOW Scoring Games

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Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 BAL vs PIT

Very Murky Game!

PIT vs BAL

BAL go into a tough game of a -0.3 DAP. Flaco has been uninspiring and I rank him a low risk but ranked at 5! He goes to a QB DAP of -6.6! Does he even pass for a score? maybe?

BAL RB are the only hope for a BAL victory! They face a +4.3 That favors the 3 headed group of West, Allen, and Collins. Determining the scorer of the group is going to be interesting!  Allen is mid risk and ranked ay 73. Allen gets one TDs or two. West is West and I ranked him safer but at 45! The excitement for me is Collins he could be the spark needed for a BAL wins. He is still a high risk!

The TE and WRs face a -1 and -11 DAP. Watson the TE should score but is still at mid risk! The ragtag WRs will need to keep the PIT Steelers busy so the RBs and TEs can score. Maclin will be a PPR play only! he is 67 ranked and low risk! If Maclin scores the BAL can win!

BAL

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Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4  PIT vs BAL

Big Ben is away from home and that usually means a poorer game for him! He has the best tools in the league with Bell and Brown, the killer Bs! Yet I have him at high risk and ranked at 49.

Bell does battle against a BAL -0.3 DAP. He should be able to score 2X and lead the team to victory. He has the keys to this game! As he goes so goes the PIT team! Bell is low risk and ranked at 98.

Brown and Bryant content against the BAL DAP of -7.5. That should take the wind out of the victory sails early. They score later in the game if Bell shakes up the BAL defense! Brown is low risk at 100. He should score 2X! Bryant is low risk at 69! He can score late!

James the TE has a clear advantage of +7.2. If Ben is in trouble I see JJ getting multiple scores! His ranking is 51 but low risk!

Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 PIT

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CIN vs CLE

CIN should win! Multiple Scoring! Could be a higher scoring game than thought!

CIN vs CLE

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Dalton is a high-risk QB ranked at 59! He crosses swords with the Brown defense giving out a +1.4 DAP. That is the reason that the Bengals are favored. Dalton is going against a -0.4 and should give us an average game. The issue is what is Dalton’s game now? I have concerns here! 3X scoring is expected.

AJ Green and the CIN WRs will be dueling against the Browns defense of a -1.1. A tough game. Green will score 1X or 2. I have him at 99 ranked and low risk. I do not think the others WRs score!

The TE Kroft will have to resist a +3.2 DAP and should score. Surprise TE this week! I still see him as a high-risk TE!

Mixon the RB should be taking over the rushing game and will fight into a -1 DAP. He will produce yards and scores. He softens up the CLE defense and allows others to score later! Mixon is ranked 80 low risk!

Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 cin3.png

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Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 CIN vs CLE

Kizer has a tough go this week vs a -1.3 DAP. I rank him a high risk at 22. Does he pass for a TD? The CIN defense will give all positions a tough struggle this week   Johnson and Crowell contends into a -3DAP an

Johnson and Crowell contend into a -3 DAP and will be pressed to score! Both are mid risk in PPR and ranked near 70. A score is possible?

The TEs see a battle against a -2.4 DAP. Njoku may a noise in PPR but scoring is not expected. High-Risk TE  at 51!

The WRs have been inconsistent and are mid risk and ranked 47! Not expecting much.

Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 CLE

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JAC vs NYJ

JAC continues their winning ways! Expect 5 TDs in the game.

JAC vs NYJ

The underdog JETs will have to defy the defensive gods going against a -4.3 DAP. This might be the toughest game they have faced so far. The JAC Defense should spank them early and often!

McCown is, of course, ranked 0 and mid-risk! I may have been generous! He faces a -7 DAP. I expect he scores for the other team more than his team!

Powell the RB has a softer game vs a -0.5 and will have the game on his back! I rank him a 57 low risk. He should score the points for the JETS! Interested to see if McGuire can spark the offense. He is on my watch list for next weeks waiver wire!

ASJ the TE has the easy +4.7 DAP and any long passing score is from him. Powell will get red zone passing attention. I rank ASJ a mid risk 61 ranking! His DAP is the reason for his higher ranking and better risk profile. He is a lottery ticket in big money contest DFS!

Anderson and Kearse have traded big weeks and  I ranked Kearse higher this week and believe he could score. Anderson is mid risk at 41 WR. They both will try to contest an overwhelming -11 WR DAP from JAC defense!

Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 NYJ

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Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4  JAC vs NYJ

Bortles gets to continue his improvement!  and will crash into a +2 DAP overall and +0.7 QB DAP! I expect 3xTDs.

Hurns and Lee the tandem WRs have a nice slate against a +5.9. they provide the 3 TDs. I rank both in PPR near 63 and Lee is low risk and Hurns at a mid-risk!

The rushing game also has a nice game script vs a +3.1. Fournette is a good going to great RBs and will score 2X or a hat trick!  If he goes off that can allow a spread to others for scoring. He is the key to victory!

The mystery of the game is Lewis the TE. He has to withstand a -0.8 DAP. I do not see a score but I was surprised last week. Another DFS lottery ticket for you!

Risk and Reward Sunday Week 4 JAC

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