Fantasy Football Week 4 Buy/Sell: Jay Ajayi Will Bounce Back

Jay Ajayi

It looks like I went three-for-four last week with my Buy/Sell column. Russell Wilson went off whereas Derrick Henry and Martavis Bryant struggled. My biggest miss was buying on Javorius Allen, but I’m chalking that up to the entire Baltimore Ravens team not showing up for their London game. I realize that it’s hard to make judgments based off of one week, but so far I hope you were able to buy low and sell high on those players.

Let’s look at who I’m buying and selling as we head into Week 4.

Buy

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA

The Miami Dolphins looked like the Dolphins from HBO’s TV Series “Ballers” more than a real NFL team on Sunday. They got manhandled by a not-so-good New York Jets team. The final score was 20-6, but the Dolphins only scored the last touchdown in garbage time as time expired.

The game script was not in Ajayi’s favor on Sunday b the offensive line didn’t do him any favors either. The Dolphins ran the ball 14 times out of 62 snaps, which was only good for 22.6% of their plays. On the bright side, Ajayi dominated the backfield touches. He out-touched the next closest Miami running back Damien Williams 13 to three. Concerns surrounding his knee seemed to be overblown, but the bigger issue was his offensive line.

The OL created -0.33 yards before contact per attempt in Week 3, which was a stark contrast to their 0.84 number in Week 2 against San Diego. The Jets were one of the worst run stopping defenses in the league up until this past Sunday, so the final judgment on the Miami line remains to be seen. The entire offense struggled to get any type of rhythm going, as they converted their first third down in the fourth quarter.

There aren’t many running backs that will have the type of workload that Ajayi does, so I still view him as a low-end RB1 that can be had for cheap.

Amari Cooper, WR OAK

Cooper and the entire Oakland Raiders offense struggled Sunday night in their first ever visit to FedEx Field. Whether it was the Sunday night primetime game or an extra motivated Redskins defense, Cooper finished with just one reception for six yards. To make matters worse, the number of drops Cooper has had is becoming a cause for concern.

There is still reason for optimism. The Oakland offense had been humming prior to Sunday night’s debacle, putting up 71 points in their first two games. Cooper’s volume has also been there. Even in a game in which he struggled, he still ran 80.6% of Oakland’s passing routes, and led the team with three deep ball targets.

There have been multiple websites that have begun to view Michael Crabtree as a wide receiver with similar value to Cooper, but I think Cooper’s upside is still much higher. I’m making offers on him wherever I can.

Sell

Todd Gurley

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Todd Gurley, RB LAR

Gurley had a fantastic game this last Thursday, finishing with a whopping 33 touches which he turned into 149 combined yards and three total touchdowns. He’ll continue to get the lion share of work in the Rams backfield, but his effectiveness is what worries me.

On Thursday, he had six carries inside the 5-yard line, but only converted on two of them. Of those opportunities, one of them came 49ers tight end George Kittle saved a would-be pick six by Nickell Robey. The other came after a fortunate pass interference call in the end zone. I know that yards per carry is a frowned upon stat to use to gauge how effective a runner is, but it still needs to be noted that Gurley is averaging 3.8 yards per carry so far this season. That’s worse than his career average.

His upcoming schedule is also quite brutal. He faces some of the toughest run defenses in his next seven weeks, including the Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings. If you can get someone like an A.J. Green or package him in a deal for Le’Veon Bell or Ezekiell Elliott, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

T.Y. Hilton, WR IND

Hilton nearly doubled his production from Weeks 1 to 2 by posting 21.3 fantasy points against the Cleveland Browns. Jacoby Brissett hooked up with Hilton for his first NFL passing touchdown as the Browns defense was left in Hilton’s wake. That was very poor defense by the Browns, and proper tackling would have prevented the 61 yard score.

I’m not comfortable relying on an unproven quarterback that’s leading a shaky offense. The Browns are still one of the fantasy friendliest defenses in the league, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into Hilton’s great game.

There’s still no timetable for QB Andrew Luck‘s return, and that’s ultimately what will determine Hilton’s fantasy value. This might be the best chance Hilton owners have to unload him for a similar value to which they paid on draft day.

Who are your buy/sells?

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