Sunday Risk Reward Week 3

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By John Bush

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3: 

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3 will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3 has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.


Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  1. Predicted Total Game Points
  2. 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
  3. Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3Slide1


Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3 Slide23


Figures 3 and 4. Player Counts of High, Mid and Low Risk by Team (Graph and Table)

The risky teams are listed to the left to right. Risker Teams are WAS, IND, PHI, TB, NYG, and TEN. Use this to break ties in lineups or fade players in DFS games!

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Sunday Risk Reward Week 3Slide03

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Table of Each Team with Player Counts of Player Risk Levels

 

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3Slide01

 


Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

The next five games are predicted to have game totals near 46 to 49 points. These games are still good not great for finding your DFS sleepers and solid lineup players. Pay attention to positional DAPs in the matchups for further plays. An opportunity exists here but requires a deeper dig into the data.


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ATL vs DET

This game seems to be one that could have a lower game than commonly thought. DET has a very strong defense and ATL has a strong defense.

I list 2017 vs 2016 data as week only have 2 data points to determine Defense Against the Positions.

 

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When ATL is on offense, they figure to face a very tough show but the DET defense gives a TE DAP of +2 (using 2016 or 2017). Hooper (+79 Ranking with Mid Risk) has a nice opportunity to score and I would not shy away for him.  Assuming the DET defense is the 2017 defense then DET RB DAP is at +0.2. Freeman figures for an average game. I have him ranked 93 and low risk. A solid play! The issue I see is the DET WR DAP of -2.7 means that Julio will be fighting for points. I think Ryan will use Freeman and Hooper over Julio. I have JJ as a 99 high rank and low risk. He should score but his ceiling is limited this week. Not sure of the other WRs they are Mid risk.

ATL

When DET has the ball, they figure to attack the positions. The 2017 RB +15 DAP is amazingly weak. This will give Abdullah the best chance to score maybe even twice. Stratford will be attacking using Riddick vs a +0.2 to +1.2 WR/Passing DAP. I expect Tate, Jones, and Golladay to have a nice but not great day. Ebron also has an easy game and can score vs +1.5 DAP to TEs. DET will have to fight all four quarters as ATL is an offensive production team!

DET

 


CAR vs NO

I expect the game total will be nice (48 pts). CAR has the advantage vs a +3.3 DAP while NO faces a +0.4 DAP for its away game.

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3Slide05

When CAR is on offense, Newton (+79 but High Risk) has the best chance to be the old CAM! He will be passing and running all day long vs a +13.5 QB DAP. This DAP implies CAM nails 4 TDs. The High Risk is assigned to him because of his loss of Olsen and his previous week’s productions! The game flow seems to support McCaffery (+81 Low Risk) to collect and collect points, yards, rushing and passing TDs. The WRs face a +15.9 DAP and we SHOULD see multiple TDs to Benjamin (91 Low Risk), Funchess (62 Mid Risk) and maybe a surprise from Samuel or Shepard. Dickson is replacing Olsen and faces a +6 DAP. Is still rated a high risk 57. If you are looking deeply he might score!

CAR

The NO team playing away tends to not do as well! Brees is a low risk but ranked as a +87. That is maybe his lowest rank so far as he is facing a -8 DAP. Caution is suggested. Maybe a fade in DFS? The RBs face a -6.7 DAP. All are mid risk players this week! Thomas and Ginn are facing a-12.3 DAP.  Maybe the tough panther Defense forgets about Coleman! He could surprise. Every DAP screams to lower expectations!

NO


CHI vs PIT

Game script favors PIT! Total game points at least 48.

 

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The CHI team will have to go against a tough defense vs a -0.5 DAP. However, all positions face high negative DAPs. Glennon is rated 13 at mid level! He is not a viable start this week. Be cautious! The TE Zach Miller at mid-risk 64 may have the best path to a passing score vs a -1.7 DAP. All the WRs are mid-level risky players and Wright is the highest ranked at 65. Finally, the RBs face a -3.6 and if Howard plays I would be cautious! I rate him at +63 Mid-Level Risk. Cohen is the best RBs to score rated at +77 low risk! Howard softens the PIT defense so Cohen scores!

CHI

The PIT team seems to have a nice matchup vs a CHI overall DAP of +2.3! Big Ben is rated +78 but a mid-level risk! This away game is one reason for the Risk level. Ben is facing a -0.9 which is slightly below average QB DAP! Levon Bell faces a -1.0 to +0.6 DAP. I still will support Bell who I rate 100 and low risk! Bell will need to show his game as he has not been what he could be. I expect him to score maybe twice! The Killer Bs should also score both are inline for TDs. A have Brown +100 low risk and Byrant at 81 mid-level risk. The outlaw Jesse James is rated at +61 mid risk! He should score but is not the first mouth to feed and he may miss out this week!

PIT


 KC vs LAC

I expect an above average scoring. KC seems favored by DAP vs a +0.9 DAP vs the LAC face a -0.5 DAP. KC is favored as well.

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3Slide10

KC faces an easy time as well. Hunt faces a -8 DAP and is rated +97 low risk! A great RBs vs a tough defense! Hunt has his toughest test yet at an away game! He should score once maybe twice! Hill the WR faces +8.9 and is rated 89 low risk! Kelce the TE is going against a -1.9 DAP. It may not be a Kelce week! The KC team is very straightforward and it will be its main players scoring this week!

KC

When LAC has its chances, they face a suspect KC. The 2017 DAPs are easy vs the 2016 Defense. Assuming the KC defense that gives up the points then the QB, RBs, and WRs are facing +3.2, +2.2 and +3.3 DAPs respectively! Rivers seems to be a nice play this week and a chance for 4 or so TDs! Rivers is rated +71 mid-level risk because of the past variation in the passing games for LAC! Melvin Gordon will rush for scores! he is rated +91 low-level risk. While that is occurring Allen will catch his due for multiple TDs and he is rated a +93 with a low-level of risk. The TEs for the LAC face a harder DAP of -1 to -1.5 and maybe Gates scores. I expect a balanced offense that scores.

 

LAC


Below Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

These games should have game totals between 42 to 45 total game points. Certainly, you early round players can be counted on but caution is suggested for other players from these games in DFS and your lineups.


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HOU vs NE

The confusion from the 2017 DAPs from both teams is the 2016 data has not been replicated in 2017!

Sunday Risk Reward Week 3Slide09

The NE team is on a roll and faces a tough defense in some DAPs! Brady (+96 Low ranked) should out-race the Hou Defense. Brady will attack using his plethora of RBs and WRs! Gronk is 100 and Low risk/Mid Risk depending on PPR or Non-PPRR scoring ranked! He will score maybe 2X even when facing the -7.1. The RBs group face a nice +1.7 and I expect multiple scores. Gillislee is +80 low risk, while White is at mid risk at +64. They should score unless we get Lewis or Burhead! Gillislee is the safest play as we know the red zone is his specialty! Hogan and Cooks (+77 and +93 low risk) can score but later in the game as the RBs knock the Hou Defense off its game early!

 

NE

HOU has a nice overall DAP of +2.3 and is not the favorite because they will not be able to keep up with the NE team. Expect garbage time scoring to save your day using the main players!  Miller (+73 Mid-Level Risk) time faces a -3.7 to +17.9 DAP and should score if the 2017 DAP is real!  Hopkins (+86 but HIGH Risk) the WR faces a +11 to -1.8 DAP. HE should score but could also get you a goose egg!  Are the 2017 DAPs the reality from the NE defense? The TE was not even rated since CJ is out!

HOU


NYG vs PHI

PHI figures as the nice favorite as the NYG team is chaos now! PHI faces a +2.3 (2017) DAP vs the NYG faces -3.9 DAP.

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The NYG Team faces a-3.9 overall DAP. Give their poor plays so far, it is hard to imagine a sudden change! Eli is ranked a low-risk +32. He can score but it may not happen. The NYG RBs face a +0.3 but who is your guy? Vereen should collect an RB scoring ranked at 47 mid-level risk! All the WRs are mid to high-risk players. OBJ is a complete gamble (High Risk – NonPPR vs Low Risk in a PPR)! He should score vs -4.4 DAP but WTF? I have no clue. The bright spot is Engram vs a +4.4 DAP and should score once or more!

NYG

When the Eagles are on the stage they see across a series of hard DAPs at RB -4 and WR -7. Sproles is the highest ranked RB at +55 and mid-level risk! The other RBs are high-risk players! Blount is confetti now! Wentz is facing a -0.5 DAP (Average Game). He is ranked +63 high-risk player. The WRs are facing a -7 DAP. Jeffery is rated the highest at +85 low risk! He may score! Agholor might repeat as Jeffery draws tougher coverage! (+58 High Risk to Mid Risk). The only bright spot is Ertz! He is going against a +5.6 DAP and will score once and maybe twice! He is +97 TE near the week’s top TE and at a low risk! He is a good play this week.

PHI


 CIN vs GB

Both Teams face easy DAPs. This game could be a high shootout than thought!

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CIN has been struggling and they are going against +1.4 DAP.  The Bengals could show more in this game! Dalton is still a high risk at +43 vs a -3.9 DAP. AJ Green is ranked at +98 low risk! He is going against -1.5 DAP. The mystery here is which RB take advantage of a -0.1 DAP (average game). I still like the high-risk Mixon at +63 but Bernard at +48 mid-risk player can get the score! Kroft the TE faces a -7.8 DAP and is rated a long-shot of 11 mid-level.

CIN

Rodgers for GB as its QB is going against a -4.1 and as a top QB will score but has a limited ceiling! If the RB, Montgomery, scores more than many think then that will free QB Rodgers later in the game! Monty is going against +2.1 DAP and should score 2X! I rank him at +93 with a Low Risk!   The GB WRs face a -13.3 DAP! This could mean that Nelson has an average game with 1 TD. Adams is also figuring and can score. Look for Allison to score if Cobb does not go! The TE is going against a-10 DAP and Bennett could be quiet here.

GB


SEA vs TEN

A lower scoring game but each team does face positive DAPs of +0.9 to +1.4 for TEN and SEA.
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TEN has an opportunity here to win the game! Mariota is mid-level risk ranked at +55 and because he faces a -5.3 DAP. This is the toughest test for the TEN team this year! The TEN RB and WR face -0.5 to -0.8, so not too bad and does fuel their win! Matthews the WR is mid-level/low risk at +66/54. He figures to score 1X with two fists full of catches in your PPR leagues! Walker the TE faces a tough DAP at -6.8 and may not score this week. Maybe later in the game as the RBs and WRs have softened the SEA Defense up! Finally, the RBs (which one?) figure to score 2X vs a -0.8 DAP.

TEN

When SEA has the ball, Wilson who is +68 but high risk rated faces a +1.1 DAP and wills core multiples! His WRs go against + nice +9.6 DAP. Baldwin (+91 Low Risk)  scores maybe 2X! The other two are mid risk rated and could surprise score as well. 3 TDs for Wilson here! If Graham the TE plays, he is going to be in a fight at -6.8 DAP (+81 high risk). Carson is the new darling RB at SEA is ranked at +61 but high risk, he faces -1.3 DAP!

SEA


Low Scoring Game Scripts imply defensive based games below 42 total game points (5TD ish)

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BAL vs JAC

A low Scoring game which is not suggested for DFS for sure.

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BAL on the ball goes against a -5.8 DAP and Flacco is a high-risk +25 type of player! The RBs face +0.9 and Allen will win this game for the BAL team! Allen a mid-risk +78. Expect 1x to 2x TDs! Ben Watson vs +7.5 TE DAP can continue his improvement and goes against a nice +69 but high-risk rated this week! Expect catches and scoring! The WRs however, may be quiet in the game as they go against -10.4! I would only use Maclin who is still a +72 mid-level risk rated player!

BAL

The JAC team faces a tough test this week! Bortles ranked at +15 but low risk is having to get across a-3.2 DAP. It is hard to guess the number of TDs he might score. They will need Fournette ranked at 83 but a mid-level risk because he is going into a tough DAP of -5.8. Can he show he is a good as some think! A question mark for sure. Lee and Hurns are also risky vs a -8.2 (Both ranked +60 ish mid to high-risk players). If the JAC had a good TE they would in line to score vs a +0.8 DAP. So if you want a lottery ticket, Lewis might accidentally score!

JAC

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MIA vs NYJ

This game pits two teams vs nice +3 overall DAPs. It could go over the game totals predicted!

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When the Dolphins are going, they also face an easy DAP of +0.7 to +3.3. Culter is a mid-risk +59 ranked. He goes at a +4.7 DAP and should deliver 2X scores! The main weapon is Ajayi, he is a low-risk player ranked at +99 and faces a +14 DAP to RBs. He should Score 2X. The WRs are also going against a nice +5 DAP and As group should produce 2X scores. It is unclear the pecking order for scoring but Landry should give you a 2 fist full of catches. He is mid-risk and ranked at +85. Parker is the mystery WR given his injuries and could be limited. I have him at Mid to High Risk ranked +80 ish! An even gamble in this game is Stills ranked at +58 to +40 (NonPPR /PPR). He is more valuable in Non_PPR league!  Finally, can the Dolphin’s TE, Thomas get in on the action? I have him mid to high-risk and+58 to +68. I think he can score or give you zero points? If Ajayi takes over then his scoring chances go down!

MIA

 

The JETs on offensive faces an easy defense giving a +0.9 to 3.8 DAP overall. This seems to set up for scoring from this team. McCowan is still rated as a Mid Risk and +17 ranking. He faces a +2 DAP and is still inline for 2X TDs or more. The confusing RBBC of Powell and Forte are ranked close (+50) and Powell is a lower risk than Forte. They face a +1.9 DAP. I expect a score from either one. Hard to determine which one. I would lean to Forte but that is a guess! The WR are facing a +0 to 2.7 DAP. Kearse has been the man and I expect a score from him and some nice yards and catches. He is low risk and ranked +68. The other WRs do not figure and are high and mid-risk types of WRs. The surprise could be the TE, ASJ, who is playing is the first game off of suspension. This game is his to take as he goes against a +14 to 1.9 DAP. He has all the possible chances to score 1X. Another score is his ceiling! He is still unknown and is ranked 61 to 54 and at mid-level risk! He is a high ceiling but low floor upside this week at the TE!

 

NYJ

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CLE vs IND

We have two bad teams with nice positive DAPs. We could see more scoring than thought!

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IND has been a sad story and they have a shot in here to win. They are facing +1.8 DAP overall. Scoring is predicted! Let’s go to the weakness of the CLE defense and Jack Doyle is the “Hit-Man” in this B Movie. Doyle faces a +11.6 DAP and will score 1X or 2X. Play him all day long in DFS etc. The QB and RB will face a +1 DAP and score as well. Old Man Gore will be able to fall into the end zone! He is mid-risk +60 RB this week. RB2/3 ish! The WRs may collect a score as well but it remains unclear as to who. Hilton is the best talent but must deal with that -5 DAP! I have him low-risk +70 WR this week!

IND

CLE faces a path for its Qb and WRs to score multiples as they face +1.7 and +10.9 Daps! Expect Kizer to score 2X or more but he is still mid-risk rated! The WRs to collect on this easy DAP are Higgins and the others as a group. I picked up Higgins all I could this week because of this DAP! I have him ranked a Low -risk +60 ish player. A solid WR3 with WR2 upside. He should give us 2X scores! Njoku the TE has a tougher go an is ranked at high-risk +50 ish. The RBBC of Crowell and Johnson. These two in a NON_PPR are rated Low and Mid-Risk but in a PPR ranked Mid and High Risk. They go against a -1.9 DAP and I expect Johnson to catch a score. Crowell is an enigma wrapped in a risk blanket in PPR! Toss-up if he scores.

CLE

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BUF vs DEN

This is a true defensive based game and the risk level for scoring any points is high. Use Defenses in DFS but extreme caution in the players.

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DEN faces a tough away game! I think Siemian comes back to earth facing a -3.9 DAP! I still have him as +49 QB (15th ish QB this week) but high-risk! CJA faces a tough test vs a -8.0 DAP and will struggle! The nice WR tandem of Thomas and Sanders vs a -5 WR DAP also will be tested in this game. The TEs will be mostly silent in here. In DFS, I would fade this game and DEN players!

DEN

BUF faces a tough Den Defense at -2 -1 DAP overall. McCoy the RB has the toughest go this week against a -6.6 DAP. He will score by pass-receiving only! Taylor the QB will pass for 2X scores vs a +3.4 DAP but still a high-risk player at +24. The BUF WRs face a +6 to -8.5 DAP. I am always worried seeing two extremes in data. If the +6 WR DAP is real then Mathews and or Jones scores. They are still though risky players at mid-levels. Clay the TE faces a +2.6 and can score 1X. I have him as a low to mid-level risk player.

BUF

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MIN vs TB

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When TB is offense, they face an easier time vs +3.3 overall DAP. The main scoring will come from Winston and Evans! Winston faces a +0.7 QB DAP and Evans sees a +8.9 DAP. I expect Evans to collect 2X or more scores from JW! Evan is a WR1 low-risk type this week! The RBs for TB however, face a -4 DAP and will not produce much on the ground! I rate Rodgers as an RB2/3 at +74 low risk. He must pass receive to score! TB TEs are mid risk types this week at 14th or so in the TE hierarchy! They face -0.5 DAP. They will be quite this week!

TB

The MIN team is without Bradford and thus will be less productive in passing. They face a -5.8 to +0.5 overall DAP. TB has only given us one game so the DAPs for 2017 are not as real yet! Dalvin Cook faces a -6.5 to +1 DAP? I have him as a low-end RB1 low -risk but the TB defense does worry me. I would not invest heavily in DFS! The WR tandem of Thielen and Diggs has the main scoring opportunity vs a +12.9 to +1.5 WR DAP. I expect 2 to 3X scores. I still rank them a mid-risk because of the QB situation. Rudolph the TD reindeer faces a-1.9 DAP and may not produce as much as expected!

 

MIN

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