Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 2

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By John Bush

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 2 Edition: 

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game’s DAPs

My Sunday Night Risk Reward Analysis will include:

  • ·         Game Script
  • ·         Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • ·         Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • ·         My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  •  Predicted Total Game Points
  •  2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
  •  Complete Week Thumbnail Overview
  • Favorite vs Underdog
  • Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 2 Slide1

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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ATL vs GB

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This Sunday night game is expected to be a high-flying game with 50 or much points or 6 TDs or so up for grabs between 2 strong offensives with softer defenses as judged by 2016 data.

 Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 2 Slide16

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ATL at an away game is the favorite but that is questionable! The GB defense can produce a +1.2 DAP an above average easier defense overall. GB give opposing QBs a +2.5 DAP to shoot at! Nice for the M. Ryan Show while the GB (2016) gave the WRs a +6.4 DAP. We can call that a 1/2 punch. I expect multiple WRs scoring. Jones gets

I expect multiple WRs scoring. Jones gets his and maybe Gabriel or Sanu also collect! This issue is that those WR2/3 types are high-risk type because it is not clear the pecking order!  The last note is that the GB Defense 2017 week 1 was not the 2016 version and generated for QBs a-6.8 and WR get a -6 DAP. This is such a turnaround and thus I lean to the 2016 data. It’s so good it not believable and in DFS please keep that in mind!

Freeman and Coleman face a harder situation and will need to catch passes to score against a -2.5 to -11.3 DAP! It’s a little confusing here.

The miracle week 1 TE was Hooper. He faces +0.6 to -4.7. A score is expected but not 2 TDs. He is Mid-Risk TE material this week!

 Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 2 ATL

GB faces an easy defense as well facing a +1.1 DAP (2016). Rodgers seems to have a running game now with TY who is facing a nice +2.1 to+13 DAP. This seems to be the source of the dagger to the Falcon’s heart. If TY gets his due then the usual passing TDs will pluck the falcons! Expect TY to get multiple TDs. Use early and often in DFS!

The GB TEs face a +0.5 to +1.6 DAP and Bennett can deliver a score as well. Finally, the GB WRs facing a +1.2 (2016) or -10 (Week1 2017). This is a large range and does put some caution into my fantasy heart. Nelson is the clear WR1 and should score once or twice! I think TY will provide the pressure late in the game to the Falcon defense and open the passing for Rodgers and Nelson. I rate him low risk. I consider Cobb and Adams as Mid Risk. It is not clear to me which one is going to prosper here. Play them if needed but it could be the other one that goes off!

I see the 2 situations, TY takes over, opens the passing and the GB team wins easily! The other is that the Falcon come out hot and get ahead so that Rodgers can not use TY as a force for victory. If I was betting, I would take the longer odds team!

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 2 GB

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