Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards Week 2

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By John Bush

Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards Edition:

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

My Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards Analysis will include:

·         Game Script

·         Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

·         Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

·         My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points

  • 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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One High Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

Below is the first of my Sunday Game Groups by Game Script Segmentation. I will suggest you use this game in DFS as well as tiebreakers for close decisions. This game is predicted to have game totals at 50 or higher points. An excellent source for stacking in DFS etc. This game has the classic offensive fireworks flavor. Play all players in DFS. I expect the last team with the ball wins.

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NE vs NO.

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Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards Slide1

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The DAPs for NO is consistent form 2016 to 2017 week 1.

The NE QB and WRs should be the Patriot’s show. Hogan should reappear here! Gronk can get well as well. The running backs from NE should deliver as well.  Expect 30 ish points.

NE

The NE DAPs are clearly different from 2016 vs week 1 2017. Confusing data here. The variation in the NO team will be less predictable.  If week 1 NE DAPs are real, NO will score early and often. Expect 30 ish points as well. If the NE DAPs are back to 2016 levels then the NO will score 10 points or so less. 20 points ish then.

There is no way to predict but NE is still the favorite in Vegas.  NO players thus have more risk!

NO

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Five Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

The next five games are predicted to have game totals near 46 to 49 points. These games are still good not great for finding your DFS sleepers and solid lineup players. Pay attention to positional DAPs in the matchups for further plays. An opportunity exists here but requires a deeper dig into the data.

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KC vs PHI

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The PHI DAPs were consistent from 2016 vs week 1 of 2017. They have a solid DEF. They will be tested as the week 1 KC team look very good. I think Smith will come back to earth but may give you 2 to 3 TDs. Can Hunt also get you so much? Again the 2016 PHI was at -2.1 DAP. That is a tougher RB Defense! Hunt will also come back to earth as well. Klece may give you more than week 1 as the tough PHI defense, may give Smith more check-downs to his TE!

KC

The PHI team plays away and are legit underdogs. Wentz should be able to hit Ertz and Sproles out of the backfield. Aghor may also get nice opportunity to score. Blount also can score in the red zone as the week1 KC DAP was +14! I expect they can upset the Chiefs!

Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards PHI

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LAC vs MIA

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LAC faces an untried MIA Defense. The 2016 DAPS were not very strong! The MIA DAPS for QB, TE, and WRs was all above +1.8 and higher. They suggest we should expect Rivers to top his week 1 stats. The TEs should deliver a score this week! K Allen is a very strong play as well. He should give you 2 TDs or more for a big performance! Gordon will give an average game. The other positions will be more favored to score.

LAC

MIA faces a nice series of easy DAPs. This is why this game can reach 48 points or more. Cutler should give us multiple passing TDs and Alayi will also score this week. This seems to favor the last team to have the ball!

This game a is also a DFS stacking situation!

Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards MIA

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LAR vs WAS

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The WAS DAPs from 2016 and 2017 suggest that LAR have a nice match for all positions except the RBs. LAR should be the favorite and expect the WR tandem to score multiple times. Cook the TE can be expected to score as well. The LAR DEF will also have a nice match-up! Gurley (Mr. Volume!) will have an average game facing a broad +3 (2016) to-1.5 (2017) DAP. He will overcome any resistance by having a high volume! If the LAR gets ahead, Gurley may lead a grind down later in the game.

Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards LAR

WAS should have a stout DAP landscape. Cousins will have to step up against a stout D! I would downgrade all positions. I am playing only if I have to! The WAS team will score but will be behind later in the game which could lead to nice garbage time point accumulations! Do not watch the game till late if you are a WAS fan. WAS will have to get lucky to win!

WAS

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PIT vs MIN

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This game is predicted to be a nice scoring game but of all the games in this group, this is the game that could be less of score festival than many may think!

PIT Team faces a tough defense but weakness of the MIN Defense at the TE position! Jesse James has another game to do multiple scoring! I expect that to occur! If James is on the wire he figures to be a nice play and a play in DFS as well! Bell and Brown, the Killer Bs will have resistance from the MIN Defense. Expect an average game which is still ok!

Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards PIT

MIN faces a tougher than average MIN Defense. I see that the best chance for scoring is from Rudolph the TD reindeer! He faces a +0.6 to -.3 DAP. This is the best DAP for the Positions. He will be the reason for MIN to upset! D Cook faces a tough test and can the rookie do it? I have assigned mid-level risk to Diggs and Thielen. They face -2.9 to -3.9 DAP. It’s a stretch to see more than 2 TDs between them!

This game has a broad range of scoring level possibilities! A true risk-reward scenario.

MIN

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ARI vs IND

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The ARI team faces an easy defense across the ranges. Expect multiple scoring across the RBs and WRs. Even Gresham (believe it or not) could score in here! K Williams should be an ok DJ replacement and Ellington may be a nice surprise for your team and in DFS! I assigned a High to Mid risk level to them respectively. That is more do to unknowns for the offensive scheme without DJ. Can ARI adjust? This easy game should be there to take.

I also love Fitzgerald and JJ Nelson. I think these a solid DFS plays!

Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards ARI

IND is a disaster on the hoof! I have grave concerns about all players and am fading them in DFS! Their only chance is that the 2017 WEEK ARI Defense is real. If so then maybe Gore in the red zone or Mack breaks a long run!

This game will most likely hand IND the second loss!

IND

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Six Below Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

These games should have game totals between 42 to 45 total game points. Certainly, you early round players can be counted on but caution is suggested for other players from these games in DFS and your lineups.

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TEN vs JAC

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The TEN team faces a strict defense this week. Playing away from their home as well. The only position with a near average chance to score is TE Walker. He can be expected to score this week. He is ranked well and low risk! I think the RBs will need to work hard facing a -1.8 to -5 DAP. Not sure how much scoring they do. The TEN WR also face a stout defense of a -2.2 to -7 DAP. That is a tough go! Not expecting a lot of scoring with caution suggested in DFS for sure.

TEN

JAC faces a much easier time and I expect a possible upset here. Their game will be playing conservative and letting their defense bottle up the TEN team. Hurns and Lee, the WRs could be a score. The Fournette show continues against a tough DAP to RBs between -3.4 to -3.9. How good is he? If he can fight through here, it certainly would answer the question for fantasy players!

JAC

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TB vs CHI

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The TB team plays their first game and it’s an easy game to start with. They are facing a CHI defense average to easy rated (+0.2 to+11?). Expect nice scoring on the TB side from Rodgers (Mid Risk) and Sims (Mid Risk) facing a +0.6 to -1.9. Evans faces a -0.5 to -3.8 and should deliver a score or two even! The TE Brate could also scoring against a +12 to -0.9 DAP. Expecting 4 TDs is reasonable.

TB

CHI faces an away game against an average defense. The RBs should be able to keep up with the TB offense! I back Cohen at low risk but think Howard could score as well (Mid Risk). The TE face a -1.1 DAP and Z Miller has a Mid-level of risk and may have a quiet game! The collection of CHI WRs as a group faces a +1.5 DAP but all are at Mid risk or higher. This is because the CHI WRs are in flux as to whose show is it going to be. DFS risk is high based on picking the scoring WRs is going to be hard this week. Clarity awaits us!

Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards CHI

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CAR vs BUF

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CAR faces an average defense and based on 2016 RB DAP of +3.2 from the BUF defense should cede the scoring to the RBs! I rate McCaffrey as low risk and highly ranked. Play him all day long in DFS! Stewart will score in the red zone a TD! Olsen also has a better chance to get his first TD of the season facing a -.6 to -1.7 DAP. He will work for it though! The CAR WRs will also work for a score or two. Benjamin should be the show facing a -0.9 to -9.6 DAP. I am not confident in any CAR WRs though.

CAR

BUF faces an easy defense of a +1.1 DAP from 2016 data but last week the CAR Defense was tough! This game sets up McCoy for one TD facing a -2.9 DAP. He should be int he running for a passing TD as well. Clay can also score 1 TD or more facing an easy +2.9 DAP. The BUF WRs are a group mid-level risk in some ways a lot like the CAR WRs. Hard to figure the scorers in here!

This game is closer than folks may think! Could be fodder for DFS!

BUF

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OAK vs NYJ

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OAK faces a disaster of a team called the NYJ! They are against a +.7 to +10.8 DAP. It seems that OAK will score all day long! Expect flocks of TDs from RBs, TEs, and WRs. The OAK defense should also score! If Lynch does not score multiple TDs then there is an issue! Cook the TE will pass Go and collect his TD or two facing a+1.3 to +7 DAP. The WRs tandem will take turns ringing the TD bell!  Carr is a nice QBs this week. DFS stacking is suggested here.

Sunday Afternoon Risk Rewards OAK

NYJ is a hoofless disaster! Their RBs face a DAP from either -9 to +2.2. That means both Powell and Forte are Mid Risk or worse! If the NYJ had a good TE maybe a score would result. The WRs are a gamble to play any of them! Chaos and garbage time scoring is the NYJ friend!

NYJ

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DAL vs DEN

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DAL is the legit favorite and faces a tough DAP of -2 to +0.4. Traditionally the RBs face +0.2 to -0.9 DEN RB DAP. I expect Elliot to score a hat trick? DFS special here! I am aggressive in my DFS plays. Witten will score as well maybe once or twice. Excellent DFS play! The issue for me is the WRs, not expecting as much in here as all as rated as Mid-Risk or worse.

DAL

DEN with it weak QBS faces a tough Defense from -2.0 to +0.4! My thought is CJ can score but faces a -3 to -8 DAP. That is tough! The WRs are led by Thomas facing -1 to -7 DAP and maybe get a score. Hard to see where scoring comes from in the DEN offense.

DAL spanks them hard!

DEN

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SEA vs SF

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The SEA Team is favored as the face +.5 to 2.5 DAP! The RBs and WRs will collect TDs like easter eggs! The RBs face a +5 to +9 which is piss-easy! The problem is who is the man? All SEA RBs are Mid-Risk because it is far from clear who is the leader! Rawls should play and most likely is the lead RB

Baldwin faces a +2.8 to -2.9 WR DAP and will score for your team maybe twice! Graham the TE needs this game to be relevant again but faces a tough +0.1 to -4.7 DAP. Maybe he scores but has a Mid-level risk!

SEA

SF faces an all-day battle, Hyde is Mid-level risk RB and faces a -2.4 to +1.4. He has the chance to score. The WRs face a -0.8 to +8 DAP. This could be the weakness of the SEA defense. Garcon should score and be the lead dog! He is a low risk! I do not have high hopes for the TEs against a -2.1 to -0.4 DAP. Garage time scoring expected for SF!

SF

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One Low Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday Afternoon

I predict that we will see one low-scoring defensive type game on Sunday Afternoon. The game total should be below 42 points. Certainly, super stud players have to be played but the next level players should be treated with caution. Few deep sleepers will come from these games. Extreme caution suggested for fringe players in these three games.

I would focus on the data and be cautious in DFS for sure.

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BAL is favored and should be as they play at home. The question is the rushing game for BAL. I favor Allen to score in the passing game as the WR and TE face +2 to +9 DAPs. The game script favors the WRs and TEs but because of week 1, I rated all WRs as Mid-Risk! The question of who’s your man is the question here. Maclin should score but the other WRs is a question for me! If the BAL team had better TEs, I would be searching there but that is not the case.

BAL

CLE faces a tough defense and all players are a volume play only. The RB Crowell is Mid-Risk and faces a -2.5 to -4.9 DAP! Coleman is the main WR to have a scoring chance! CLE WRs face +1.5 to -8 DAP. Scary DAP! Nothing should come for the TEs.

Give the weak rookie QB, the CLE might be hard press to score at all. Not happy playing any CLE players!

CLE

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