Week 1 Wrap Up! Dynasty Edition

DeSean Jackson

Before You start, I need to throw out a disclaimer here.  This is not a recap article of each game.  You can find recaps on any site or any sports news source you want.  This is specifically a fantasy (mostly dynasty) perspective on each game.  I plan to have six specific points from each game to include a positive, a negative and a future outlook from each team.  Enjoy!

NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

               Jets Positives:  Ugh, this is tough.  Jermaine Kearse looked to pick up the jets playbook The immediately as he pulled in 7 of his 9 targets while only maintaining an average separation distance of 1.34 yards.  That’s all I got.. This team is a dumpster fire.

Jets Negatives:  Where do I start?  Josh McCown is not a threat,  the entire backfield couldn’t crack 50 yards and this was all against a terrible defense.

Future Outlook:  Unless Forte gets traded or hurt and Powell steps in as the work horse, there is absolutely no one on this team that should be starting for your fantasy lineup.  I hope that Bryce Petty is named starter when he is fully healthy which could possibly give the speedsters such as Robby Anderson a little bit of a boost but I’m not holding my breath.
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Bills Positives:  Charles Clay.  The late round flyer at TE looks like he’s going to be a favorite target for Tyrod and it benefits that he is a very good run blocking TE as well so he won’t leave the field.

Bills Negatives:  The Handcuff situation.  Most dynasty owners were heartbroken over the departure of Jonathan Williams leaving us empty handed for a handcuff for Shady.  Mike Tolbert is not the answer here.  He vulture a touchdown from shady and that is what we should expect from him on a weekly basis.

Future Outlook:  I think there are some interesting pieces to this offense.  I expect them to be trailing most games which will be beneficial to Jordan Matthews and Zay Jones along with the aforementioned Charles Clay.

 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

               Ravens Positives:  A positive game script let us see that a committee between Terrance West and Buck Allen is not just serviceable, but may be something RB needy teams want to think about.  Also, Both Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace averaged more than three yards of separation on routes, well above the league average.

Ravens Negatives:  Danny Woodhead.  Most analysts pegged Woody to be a low end RB2 in PPR leagues after Dixon went down for the year.  This hamstring injury seems to be one that’s going to affect him long term and we will see his dynasty value plummet as a result

Future Outlook:  For this season, I’m still not touching this backfield.  This was a unique game script that won’t happen to often and if West and Buck weren’t anything to own before, they still aren’t now.  Maclin will be the clear WR1 of this team and I look for him to finish as a low end WR2.

Bengals Positives:  This game was gross and I am really stretching for positives here.  AJ Green is still a WR1.  Despite Andy Dalton not having any time to breathe in the pocket, he was still able to target AJ 10 times as he came up with five of those catches for 74 yards.  Also, it may be due to the negative game script but Gio Bernard looked explosive and certainly healthy enough to explain why he out touched Hill.

Bengals Negatives:  Everything else.  This offensive line is a disaster and it needs to change.  Joe Mixon looked shell shocked and Jeremy Hill looked slow.  Behind AJ Green, there isn’t a wide receiver that I would even think about touching.

Future Outlook:  John Ross is slated to return and that will help open up the field a bit for this team.  If they can get away with a semi-decent passing attack then it may lead to bigger holes and opportunity for Mixon.  I expect Gio to lead the backfield in PPR points this year but it will be the last year that he does.

              

Raiders vs. Titans

               Raiders Positives:  Beast Mode.  Lynch ran with the tenacity and strength that we all remember he had.  I never expected his touches to eclipse 20 per game but if he keeps running like this, they will continue to feed him.  Also, we finally saw some red zone targets for Amari Cooper.  This has been years in the making but I remain hopeful that Carr looks for Amari early and often inside the 20.  Which leads me to my negative.

Raiders Negatives:  Seth Mother F’ing Roberts.  This guy has one catch and it’s another end zone vulture from someone who may actually have fantasy relevance.  Other than Roberts, I don’t have many negative things to say about Oakland.

Future Outlook:  I’ll be the first to admit that I expected a committee backfield from this team but it looks like they are committing to Lynch for at least this year.  Jared Cook looks like a viable TE option and with an increase in red zone targets, Cooper could finally find himself in the category with the likes of OBJ, Brown, Julio and Evans.

Titans Positives:  Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis.  This is a bright future for a team that’s supposed to be focused on the run.  Davis averaged an AMAZING 3.36 yards of separation on his routes but even when he was blanketed, he came down with the ball.  These two have just started but it is easy to see how bright the future is.

Titans Negatives:  Exotic run my ass… Demarco was successful between the tackles but struggled outside of the box and the team as a whole only tallied 69 yards on the ground (not including Mariota).

Future Outlook:

I figured this team to repeat what they did last year and expected Demarco to be an easy top 10 RB but games like this won’t help that argument.  I still expect the Titans to run the ball 25-30 times a game and with the added threat of a good WR corps, they shouldn’t see loaded boxes.

              

Jaguars vs. Texans

Jaguars Positives:  Leonard Fournette.  We were told they were going to run him into the ground and they certainly look to be doing just that.  Totaling 29 touches and 124 yards is certainly impressive but this could again be a case of the game script.  Regardless, Fournette looked good between the tackles as well as outside of the box.

Jaguars Negatives:  Allen Robinson and the rest of the passing game.  As if A-Rob’s stock wasn’t already plummeting… The start Wideout suffered a torn ACL in Sundays game which could result in an updated ADP that I could not even begin to imagine.  With that being said, Blake Bortles is still the QB and I don’t want anything to do with Marqise Lee or Allen Hurns.

Fantasy Outlook:   SILVER LINING! Buy Dede Westbrook.  The former Heisman candidate had an outstanding camp and is scheduled to come off the IR by week 8.  Dede could step into the role vacated by Robinson for the rest of this year and beyond.  Lets not forget the A-Rob is a free agent following the year.

Texans Positives:  We got to see Watson earlier than expected?  He looked very good 15 yards and in and targeted NuK often which is always good to see.

Texans Negatives:   Lamar Miller and the Offensive Line.  Its tough to tell if this offensive line was bad or if the jaguars defensive line is that good.  Regardless, they need to make some holes and buy some time for Watson.

Fantasy Outlook:  I don’t think NuK will ever be a top 5 WR again.  HOWEVER, I think he finishes this year as a WR1.  The guy is on pace for 250 targets so we can expect regression there but I think that a rookie QB has to lean on someone so it might as well be him.

Eagles v. Redskins

               Eagles Positives:  Nelson Agholor.  Is the USC wideout what we expected Jordan Matthews to turn into?  Busting free on a scrambling touchdown plus 5 more catches totaling 86 yards is a welcome slot for the slot receiver.

Eagles Negatives:  Carson Wentz to the outside receivers.  This one may be a reach but bare with me.  Alshon only saw 7 targets with 3 receptions, Torrey Smith saw just 3 targets and 1 catch.  That compared to the numbers that Nelson put up with plus the massive stat line from Zach Ertz has me concerned that Wentz ignores the outside to often.

Fantasy Outlook:   Zach Ertz is finally going to finish as a top 6 tight end.  Nelson will stretch the field from the slot but Ertz is going to occupy the shallow middle of the field and make for a target hog for Carson.

Redskins Positives:  Redskins tight ends.  Jordan Reed looked healthy both him and Davis averaged about 3 yards of separation per route ran.  As long as Reed is healthy, he will benefit in the red zone.

Redskins Negatives:  Fat Running Backs.  Rob Kelley is terrible and football but they don’t trust Samaje Perine.  Stuck between a rock and a fat place.  Chris Thompson is the most talented back on this roster but he only sees the field on 3rd down.  Thompson might be worth a roster spot in PPR leagues but no other back is worth a 2nd look.

Fantasy Outlook:  I still want all of the Cousins, Pryor and Crowder shares I can get.  This team is going to have to lean on the vertical passing attack and there aren’t many better combinations in the league than Cousins and Pryor.

Cardinals vs. Lions

               Cardinals Positives:  This was worse than the Jets… John Brown was healthy, that’s my positive.

Cardinals Negatives:  The entire offense not named Fitz.  Carson Palmer looks completely done but more importantly is the David Johnson injury.  If DJ goes on IR, it will single handedly destroy many fantasy teams this year.  There is no one worth picking up to replace him and this offense becomes one with little to no pieces worth owning.

Fantasy Outlook:  Kerwynn Williams is not a thing, Carson Palmer is only a streaming option in super flex at this point.  Fitz remains a WR3 option but this team scares the hell out of me.

Lions Positives:  Come on… You knew it was coming.  Kenny Golladay is the truth.  At first I thought he was just a 3rd receiver, then maybe a red zone target… I was so so wrong because he is the #1 on this team.  The combination of him, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones along with some of the best pass catching backs in the NFC makes this offense formidable.

Lions Negatives:  Eric Ebron.  I don’t want to put Ebron here because I like his future, but for now he will have to do.  Stafford loves airing the ball out and at this point, I just don’t know if it will ever come together for Eric.

Fantasy Outlook:  I want all of the Lions.  Stafford is set to have an easy QB1 year, they have three solid WR’s and I still really like Ameer Abdullah as a RB2.

Steelers vs. Browns

Steelers Positives:  Antonio Brown.  Of course he’s the positive.  He is matchup proof and will probably be the WR1 by the end of the year.

Steelers Negatives:  Vance Miller.  Where was he?  Jesse James won’t be on this field long after trading for Miller but it concerns me that he was only targeted one time.

Fantasy Outlook:  If the Leveon Bell owner is worried about this game, good lord go out and offer him a trade.  This won’t last long and with the DJ injury and possible Zeke suspension… The Steelers could easily have the RB1 and WR1.

Browns Positives:  Kizer and Coleman.  Kizer looked poised (with exception of one terrible INT to mini-watt) and confident in the pocket.  He had a connection with Corey Coleman and CoCo looks poised to breakout after finally landing a QB that can air it out.

Browns Negatives:  Duke Johnson.  No carries?!? What… He is NOT a slot receiver, he is a pass catching back and the browns and screwing with him.  He is another target that I would make a cheap offer for.

Fantasy Outlook:  I would personally go out and buy Duke Johnson because its just a matter of time until the browns find a set role for him.  It may be to late to buy CoCo and Kizer but if the owners are looking to off-load for vets, it is something to consider.

Falcons vs. Bears

               Falcons Positives:  Austin Hooper.  I am not saying to expect 120 yards and a touchdown every game from this guy because he is not going to come close to that.  The thing that impresses me is that he was on the field for 80% of the offensive snaps.

Falcons Negatives:  The running game.  The bears don’t have that good of a front 7 yet Freeman and Coleman only managed a combined 53 yards on 20 carries.  I don’t think this will continue but I also wouldn’t expect many 100 yard rushing games from either one of these guys due to the committee factor.

Fantasy Outlook:  Matt Ryan is still a top 10, Julio will be a top 10, Freeman will be a top 10.  I compare this offense to that of the Lions in which I want any piece I can get.

Bears Positives:  Tarik Cohen.  Man o’ man is this guy going to eat into Jordan Howards workload.  This is Darren Sproles in his prime type of stuff. He can run, catch and probably throw if he needed to.  If you don’t own a piece, its probably to late to get one.

Bears Negatives:  Jordan Howard with special guest appearance by Kevin White.  We probably just witnessed Jordan Howard lose all 3rd down responsibility and that 4th quarter drop on the goal line didn’t help.  I was never high on Jordan and I still rank him as a low end RB 1 to high end RB2.  Oh, and Kevin White is broken again… shocking…

Fantasy Outlook:  Maybe I’m on an island here but I would sell Howard to the Tarik owner.  I am not a believer and the lack of WR’s on this team will just cause defenses to load the box on 1st and 2nd downs.

Ravens vs. Bengals

               Ravens Positives:  Jeremy Maclin.  3.77 yards of separation per route is insane and that is exactly what Maclin did.  He was also recorded as the fastest player on the field so I think its fair to see he is the Ravens clear WR1.

Ravens Negatives:  Danny Woodhead.  Poor Woody.  We expected Danny to bounce back this year and finish as a RB1 in PPR leagues but it looks like a hamstring injury is going to keep him out most of the year.  That injury turns this backfield into a pile of trash.

Fantasy Outlook:  Buck Allen or Terrance West.  That’s the argument we’re having now?  The answer is No.  None of them.  They had good numbers thanks to the insane positive game script on Sunday.  This is going to be a pass friendly team so give me all of the Maclin and Perriman shares.

Bengals Positives:  Gio Bernard.  Gio looked healthy, fast and twitchy.  He needs to be the starting RB on this team but they refuse to let the Jeremy Hill experiment go.

Bengals Negatives:  O-Line.  This offensive line is the worst in football and it is going to show on everyone else’s fantasy numbers. Dalton doesn’t have time to throw and there are no holes in the middle for the running game.

Fantasy Outlook:  Joe Mixon is going to be used much more just so Dalton can check down to him.  I expect to see some dual backfields with him and Gio just to try and confuse defenses in hopes of slowing down the pass rush.

Seahawks vs. Packers

Seahawks Positives:  Paul Richardson.  Yes, this is a reach because he didn’t do much but I want to reiterate that I think Richardson is going to do great things this year.  With coverage focusing on Graham and Baldwin, Richardson will eat if the O-Line can give Russ some time.

Seahawks Negatives:  O-Line and Running Backs.  Just like the Bengals, this offensive line is dog shit.  They aren’t giving Russel anytime to throw and they are making the committee of terrible running backs useless.

Fantasy Outlook:  I still love me some Russel Wilson because of his ability to scramble but this O-line is making it hard.  I will continue to drive the Paul Richardson Fan Bus.

Packers Positives:  Marty B.  Bennett was solid in his first game with Green Bay and he is going to absolutely eat up the middle of the field with A-Rod.

Packers Negatives:  Backup RB’s?   Ty-Mont is the truth and will continue to be the work horse of this team.  Any debate during draft season of which backup to own is going to fall on deaf ears.

Fantasy Outlook:  Where’s Jeff Janis?

Panthers vs. 49ers

Panthers Positives:  The running game.  I understand that the box score may not show up to well for J-Stew and CMC but the way the Panthers handled it was great.  Mixing them in and playing them both, especially on Stewarts touchdown, was genius and I hope to see more of it.

Panthers Negatives:  Cam Newtons Arm.  Not necessarily his arm strength, that is still there.  But good god his accuracy was awful.  I hope this is due to the lack of game speed he had during the off season but if this continues to be a problem then we have to worry about every other skill position on the team.

Fantasy Outlook:  Cam Newton was my dynasty QB2 coming into this year.  Im debating that but I am holding firm still.   I think as the season goes on, he will get his accuracy down which will make Olson, Benjamin and especially CMC more useful.

49 Positives:  Carlos Hyde.  Three Down Backs are hard to come by and Hyde is going to be that all year long.  I would love to buy a piece of him in any league whether its PPR or not.

49 Negatives:  Brian Hoyer.  He is just not good and the WR’s are paying for it.  Not much else to say to that.

Fantasy Outlook:  I was all about the Pierre Garcon fandom at the beginning of the year but I am having 2nd thoughts.  I want Garcon to do well but I don’t trust Hoyer to get him the ball.

 

Colts vs. Rams

               Colts Positives:  Marlon Mack.  In the brief time that Mack came in for Gore, he looked great.  He was quick and shifty and a clear change of pace for the veteran.  I would buy him anywhere I can before he blows up because they are going to have to lean on this run game until luck comes back.

Colts Negatives:  Everything else.  This offense was terrible to watch and will remain terrible to watch until Andrew Luck comes back.  If he comes back.

Fantasy Outlook:  Buy Marlon Mack in dynasty… Sell TY Hilton the first game he breaks 100 yards.

Rams Positives:  Jared Goff.  Goff actually looked like a number 1 pick.  His throws had accuracy and power and continued to eat up the colts defense.  Now, I want to see him against a real team.

Rams Negatives:  Todd Gurley.  Even without the defense stacking the box, Gurley was unable to average more than 3 yards a carry.  I hope this changes but it is quickly starting to become a trend with him.

Fantasy Outlook:  This WR corps is nice!  Watkins, Kupp, Higbee and Everett is going to be something that defenses have to scheme against.  All of that will hopefully lead to less people in the box and bigger holes for Gurley.

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