NonPPR Ranks and Risk Skew Week 2

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by John Bush

NonPPR Ranks and Risk Skew Week 2

My rankings are not simply numbers on a page or column. I have to include my metric based risk assessment and a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.

I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a ranking range skew number. I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the positions within the teams.

Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player range of possible outcomes.

High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.

Figure 1. Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis. 

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Figure 2. Outcome Range Skew

I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).

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As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations. In Figure 3, I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in week 2, High, Mid or Low-risk players.

For example, this week JAC has over half its ranked players at high risk (47%)! My rankings must be considered a best case. MIA and PIT have only 1 player at predicted high risk! Use to evolve your views.

FYI to finish my week’s picture, I consider game scripts, DAPS, Risk, Range Skew and rankings. I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion! Blindly following numbers is not the best way!

Figure 3. Week 2 Team Risk Landscape

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I use the team positional data in Figures 4 to further modify my “feeling” about each team’s risk this week!

Figure 4. Week 2 Team Positional Risk Landscape

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I use the ranking as a best case and modify my DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of game scripts, DAPs, Risk, and Range Skew. Good Luck!

NonPPR Ranks and Risk Skew Week 2

Defense and Special Teams

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Kickers

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Quarterbacks

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NonPPR Running Backs

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NonPPR Tight Ends

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NonPPR Wide Receivers

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