Do Not Panic on your WRs!

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By John Bush

Do Not Panic!

Here are my 2 figures to remind all of us, not to panic early in the season. Dropping good players to get the flavor of the week could hurt more than help you! Do not panic!

You are being pulled by several cognitive biases in the early days week 2 of 2017 season

Hindsight Bias: This bias will pull Fantasy Players to believe after the fact that player performances were predictable and obvious whereas, in fact, the events/performance could not have been reasonably predicted. (Everyone knew that! ?). Do not panic!

Self-attribution Bias: Fantasy Players who suffer from self-attribution bias tend to believe their successful drafting and lineups were only due to their own actions. All poor choices were due to external factors or bad luck. This bias is a means of self-protection or self-enhancement in Fantasy Football.  Overconfidence or failure to stay the course can result. I have to drop that player or bid all my FAAB on them! Do not panic!

Vividness/Sensational Bias: When Fantasy Football players perceive (see or hear) information directly, it has the greater impact than information FF players receive secondhand (reading about)– even if the secondhand information has more substance. (Seeing is believing – not always!). Do not panic!

Availability Bias. Recent events in the weekend games feed into well-known conjectures for you and provide “convenient not necessarily true” explanations. For Fantasy Football players this is the concept that a “well known” idea about a player or positional usage is a bias trap. Everyone knows it to be true? Warning bells should sound. Do not panic!

Figure 1.  2016 WEEK 1 Top 40 WRs vs their End of 2016 Season Rankings

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Figure 2.  2016 WEEK 2 Top 40 WRs vs their End of 2016 Season Rankings

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Roughly 43% (based on 2016 Data) Top Week 1 and 2 WRs may not be in the top of the end of 2017 Season! 

Biases and Panic are not your friends! 

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