NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Blake Bortles and Co. will need to discuss how to stop the Watt & Clowney pass-rush.

Blake Bortles and Co. will be needing plenty of time-outs to discuss how to stop the Watt & Clowney pass-rush.

Football is back and I think I speak for the entire world when I say that we are more than ready for this! I’ll be bringing you my three favorite picks each week against the spread with some commentary as to why I think it’s a smart pick (emphasis on think) and my confidence level of the pick. You may want to use these to throw some money on the games, in your ATS pick ‘em league, or to just have an interesting perspective on a couple of games each week. Use them as you see fit, and I hope they help you whether you play or fade my picks!

These spreads were taken from http://sportsbook.ag as of 9/6/17.

Houston Texans -6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

This seems like the easiest pick of the week. That’s not a great intro to a betting article that will talk a lot about public opinion and Vegas playing against that, but Houston is going to come out strong for this one. Hurricane Harvey just rolled through the city causing distress and destruction (please consider donating to the recovery efforts if you haven’t already). They are at home and will be playing for their city. Additionally, the team is fully healthy. JJ Watt and Clowney should terrorize the Jags mediocre offensive line, leaving little room for Fournette to run and no time for Bortles to find an open man.

New York Jets +8.5 @ Buffalo Bills

This hurts. It really does. And I’m perfectly fine with you going against me here, but hear me out! Who has been the laughing stock of the preseason? Who has been said to have the worst offense in the NFL, and potentially league history? The answer to all of these questions is the Jets. Vegas knows this and makes their money playing off the public opinion. Do I think the Jets stand a chance in this game – no, I don’t. However, the Buffalo Bills aren’t the most put together team right now. They are clearly in rebuilding mode and their quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, missed most of the preseason with a concussion. Jordan Matthews has been out all preseason as well, but is expected to start this game. Outside of McCoy rushing the ball 20+ times for ~100 yards, there are no sure things with this offense behind their paltry line. This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game in which I will almost always take the points when it’s over a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Oakland Raiders

I liked this line better when it opened at less than a field goal, but I’ll take Mariota and the Titans in their home opener. I have big aspirations for Marcus Mariota. He made some great improvements in his 2nd year and passes the eye-test as a high-caliber NFL quarterback. Their offense line is one of the best in the league and the 1-2 punch of Murray and Henry is going to be lethal in terms of wearing down the defense and controlling the clock. Many are predicting a shootout for this game (not surprisingly) but I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a ground and pound scheme with Lynch making his comeback. Worst-case scenario: Tennessee wins by a field goal in the final 2 minutes. I’m calling the under here if you want to parlay or add in another bet to make this game an even better watch.

That’s all I have for this week! It’s going to be a thrilling week of football whether you have money on the line or not. Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of the picks! @MoreThanFantasy

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