Monday Night NFL Analysis

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By John Bush

Monday Night NFL Analysis – Risk and Reward Game Edition

My Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

·         Game Script

·         Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

·         Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

·         My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

My Monday Night NFL Analysis. I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

Figure 1 Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Monday Night NFL Analysis Slide1

Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Monday Night NFL Analysis Slide23

GAME 1

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MIN vs NO Overview

The DAP landscape is shown above. The data clearly shows that MIN has a nice game ahead facing an overall +1.6 DAP. They should collect on the ground and air. NO has a tougher on the road game vs a -1.5 DAP. Brees has a known weakness on the road!

The game total is predicted to be above average at near 48 or so points.  Nearly 7 TDs could be scored. A good game to harvest some DFS points and enhance your redraft line-ups. Expect a below average game for the NO team but since they were the No 1 offense in 2016 that could mean a very good offense still.

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MIN Analysis

Monday Night NFL Analysis MIN

MIN QB. Bradford faces a nice +1.4 DAP and will score nicely by passing to his WRs, RBs and TEs.

MIN RB. Super Rookie Dalvin Cook is predicted to follow his nice college work with scoring in his first NFL game. He faces a whopping +4.3 DAP. He is in line to be one of week 1’s multiple scoring machines. I rate him at 86. DFS and Redraft hero!

MIN WR. Given the +2.2 DAP, I expect the WRs to do multiple scores. Diggs is ranked at 81 and Thielen (63)  may also collect for you. Not sure about Treadwell (21) but his opportunities won’t be much better this season.

MIN TE. Rudolph should bring Christmas early for his DFS and redraft friends. Multiple Redzone Scores is not out of the possibilities.

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NO Analysis

Monday Night NFL Analysis NO

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NO QB. Brees has had a weakness in away games. He is facing a -1.9 DAP. He will have to really work to pass to his receivers. Expect 2 TDs for sure.

NO RBs. Peterson should have the Big Mo going against his former team. He faces a -2.3 Ingram will also be in the mix in this RBBC. I have Ingram at 69 and Peterson at 63. The pass catching Kamara could reward backers but figures to have limited opportunities.

NO WRs. As a group, they face a strong -3.9 DAP and must step up for the Saints! I have Thomas at 92 and Ginn at 53. Certainly, in DFS Thomas is a safer play but I expect at best an average game for him.

NO TE. Fleener has the easiest DAP of -0.5. That is near average. He could be the surprise here. I have him at 72. Play him if need but I see a limited ceiling for him.

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GAME 2

DEN vs LAC Overview

The overall game total is near 43 points. Maybe 5  TDs to be scored. No big fireworks are expected and a more defensive game may ensue. DEN faces a slightly easier game vs an overall +0.7 DAP. Nice. That should allow them the edge here in a closed game. Expect a slow but steady game. LAC with Rivers and Co will face a stout -2.0 DAP and will need all his veteran tricks to achieve victory.

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Monday Night NFL AnalysisSlide09

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DEN Analysis

Monday Night NFL AnalysisDEN

DEN QB. Siemian has a nice DAP to face of +0.5. He has 2 great WRs as well but he will still underwhelm here. He is ranked a very risky 26.

DEN RB. CJ Anderson ranked at 81 and facing a +2.2 DAP (easy) will be the show for Denver. Charles may surprise as well. I expect those two RBs to give the game to DEN.

DEN WR. D Thomas is ranked 89 and Sander a riskier 77. They could score a TD each but face a -1.6 DAP and they will be limited in ceiling value for your DFS and lineups.

DEN TE. Derby is lowly ranked at a risky 36 and faces a -0.7 DAP. Nothing much to see here.

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LAC Analysis

LAC

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LAC QB. Rivers faces a strong -4.6 DAP and will be very pressed all night long. He will struggle to get relaxed enough to score deep. Expecting his short game to be on display.  Ranked at a mid risk of 33.7. Not his day.

LAC RB. Gordon has the main opportunity to win this close game for LAC. He faces a nice +0.2 DAP and is ranked at 91.2! He is way for a LAC win to happen

LAC WR. These WRs are facing an insane -8.5 DAP. Allen is ranked 74 and Williams at 62, both at a mid risk level. Hard to see too much from them.

LAS TE. Gates and Henry are the best LAC hope for a passing score or two. Facing a -0.2 DAP they should be the go to players for River’s short game. Gordon gets them to the red zone and then the TEs could collect. Ranked at 79.1 and 59 for Henry and Gates.

Close game due to the DEN QB lack of strength.

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