Hey Peterman, Check Out Channel 9! Superflex Dynasty Trading Post: Week 1

Source: MentalFloss.com

With roughly 16-20 current NFL quarterbacks who can be reliably projected as the franchise signal caller for their team for the next 2-3 years, nearly half of the teams in the NFL have some degree of uncertainty regarding their short and long term QB situations. The same is true of your leaguemates in superflex dynasty fantasy football leagues.

One of the most intriguing elements of this particular format is the increased value of the QB position, both in the weekly production they provide in your lineup, and in the trade capital they command in the marketplace. By paying close attention to dynasty average draft position (ADP), weekly QB production and team depth charts, savvy owners can reap significant rewards by participating in the QB trade market early and often. More and more, the QB position is being incredibly highly valued in these leagues, leading to trades like this:

Give: Colin Kaepernick
Get: 2017 1st (became Joe Mixon)

Give Derek Carr, Quincy Enunwa
Get: Allen Robinson, 2017 1st (became Corey Davis)

Give: Matthew Stafford
Get: Todd Gurley

…and so on.

This column is intended to provide advice on how to navigate this trade market, identifying proactive buys, sells, stash and avoid QBs to accrue value to strengthen your dynasty teams, capitalize on hype and maximize your roster spots. Let’s dive right into it for Week 1:

Buy: Dak Prescott

Source: SI.com

Source: SI.com

Dak Prescott was an out of nowhere rookie sensation for the Dallas Cowboys in 2016, quickly becoming the new gold standard for a late round QB hit for the NFL and Superflex owners alike. While his ADP has spiked dramatically following the conclusion of his rookie season, he still remains firmly below the upper echelon of young QB stars as well as a handful of the old guard QBs just years from retirement. According to Dynasty League Football’s August ADP*,  Prescott’s ADP places him as QB12, behind Jameis Winston,  Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan. This is just two spots ahead of fellow 2016 rookie Carson Wentz, whose rookie season, while initially showing some promise, was significantly less impressive.

QBGames StartedCmp%YdsTDsIntsAY/AQBRTotal Fantasy Points/PPG (Rookie Year)Post-Rookie Season August ADP
Dak Prescott1667.8%3,6672348.681.5354 PPR, 22.12 PPGQB12
Marcus Mariota1262.2%2,81819107.451.6337, 21.09 PPGQB9
Jameis Winston1658.3%4,04222157.160.9340, 21.23 PPGQB5
Derek Carr1658.1%3,27021125.545.7253, 15.79QB14
Carson Wentz1662.4%3,78216155.752.8268, 16.76QB14

Prescott’s ADP is lower than it should be. This time last year, as they entered their sophomore seasons, Winston’s ADP put him at QB5, and Mariota QB9 – despite statistically inferior rookie seasons to Prescott. Yes, Winston and Mariota had better draft capital and inferior supporting casts, but shouldn’t a stronger offensive line and armada of weapons help, not hurt dynasty value? Prescott belongs nearer to the Winston/Mariota tier ADP-wise based on his rookie season performance, supporting cast and future prospects – not the Carr/Wentz tier.

Prescott’s ADP is bound to catch up – but I expect it will be mid or late season until it does. The Cowboys are widely perceived to have a much more difficult schedule this season, and in particular, their first four games this year feature stout defenses in the New York Giants, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams. A slow start to the Cowboys offense would serve to continue to depress Dak’s value, and present an even more tantalizing buy opportunity. Buy Dak Prescott now, or wait a few weeks to make inquiries. If by the end of the season, if Dak is a late first/early second round startup pick in superflex dynasty leagues, I would not be surprised..

Sell: Jameis Winston

Jim Mone - Associated Press

Jim Mone – Associated Press

Jameis Winston currently occupies the consensus “no-brainer breakout candidate” at the QB position for the 2017 season, boosted a fair amount by the addition of new weapons Desean Jackson, OJ Howard and Chris Godwin. Since his rookie year, he has quickly rocketed up 2QB dynasty draft boards, and at this point, it is not uncommon to see Winston taken ahead in the mid-to-late first round of new 2QB dynasty startups: he’s currently QB4 in DLF’s August ADP. In a Superflex startup I participated in earlier this offseason, Winston was the first QB off of the board at 1.05, taken ahead of both Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers.

There’s reason to believe his ADP might be the highest it will ever be. There are legitimate reasons to get excited about the Tampa Bay offense this year, but his price is seemingly largely based off of his youth and supporting cast. According to FantasyFootballCalculator.com, Winston is being drafted in redraft as the 8th QB off of the board, which anticipates a jump of 7 spots from his 2016 finish. It’s rather bullish, especially considering the more balanced offense that Dirk Koetter implemented in the second half of the 2016 season to minimize Winston’s turnovers and keep the Tampa Bay Bucs in playoff contention. The Bucs are a trendy pick to contend for the NFC South this season, so it’s conceivable that Koetter might again opt to take the ball out of Winston’s hands down the stretch.

Capitalize on the extremely high trade value that Winston currently commands and sell him for a king’s ransom. Specifically, you might try to sidegrade to Marcus Mariota, or make the move a tier down (from an ADP perspective) to Dak Prescott + an asset or 2018 draft pick. Winston’s value will likely stabilize or go down from here, and there’s reason to believe he won’t finish as the QB1 he is currently being drafted as in 2017. Now’s the time to sell.

Bonus Sell: Consider selling Alex Smith after his huge Week 1 performance vs. the Patriots. There’s a solid chance he holds off Patrick Mahomes for the entire season this year, has value beyond 2017 as a starter somewhere, and his showcasing of a very high ceiling in this past game certainly doesn’t hurt his trade stock.

Hold: Nathan Peterman

Source: zimbio.com

Source: Zimbio.com

Pauvre petite Tyrod Taylor. As the Buffalo Bills continue to telegraph the 2017 season as a rebuild year, both Tyrod Taylor and Lesean McCoy are caught awkwardly in the middle. With new head coach Sean McDermott looking to angle the Bills towards a more west coast style offense, Taylor appears to be clearly on the outs. Despite being cleared from his pre-season concussion and likely to start Week 1, Tyrod Taylor – and his deep ball and plus mobility – will not start 16 games for the Bills this season.

The Bills drafted Nathan Peterman this year in the 5th round. While not exactly a significant draft capital investment, he’s a much better stylistic fit for the west coast offense and the current Bills receiver corps (pour one out for Sammy Watkins) than Taylor. Peterman has been the recipient of frequent praise from Bills brass as well, and is supposedly ‘ready to start.’ Tyrod’s days are numbered in Buffalo, and while Peterman may not be the true Bills QB of the future (*cough* Josh Rosen *cough*) , he’ll get at least a fair shot at the starting gig this season, which gives him a fair amount of value in superflex leagues.

Hang tight and hold Peterman until Tyrod gets benched or injured, then aggressively shop him around your league for a 2018 1st or 2nd round draft pick (or an asset of your choice). The middle of the season will bring benchings and injuries to QBs around the league, and as such, steeper trade prices on starting NFL QBs.

Avoid: Jacoby Brissett & Scott Tolzein

New England and Indianapolis drew side eye glances this past week when they completed an increasingly less rare these days player-for-player trade. The Patriots sent 3rd string QB Jacoby Brissett to the Colts in exchange for the Grigson-era 1st round WR Philip Dorsett.

With Andrew Luck still on the mend and with no timetable for return, the temptation to take a stab at his stop-gap replacement is strong.
Brissett looked decent in his two starts for the Patriots, but likely won’t be ready to step in for Andrew Luck right away – after Luck returns, he’s, well, the backup to Andrew Luck. As for Scott Tolzien, he is clearly on team #NotGood, with a career adjusted yards per attempt (AYA) of 5.2  and 2 TD/7 INT ratio. Welp, see ya later. Let your leaguemates spend their FAAB money.

Deep Stash: Josh Dobbs
Last month, I talked about Josh Dobbs as a high upside stash in superflex formats. The early pre-season results have not been exactly inspiring, but the opportunity in Pittsburgh remains extremely lucrative, with a great offensive line, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Not to mention, the greatest of them all – newly acquired TE Vance McDonald. Supporting cast aside, here are a few others reasons why Dobbs is worth a look as a low-risk, high-reward stash in deeper leagues:

  • Ben Roethlisberger has missed a lot of time recently, and is close to retirement.
  • Landry Jones has not made an extremely compelling case for the backup gig.
  • Dobbs is cheap – if not completely free.
  • Accuracy issues aside, his rushing ability can add a dimension to the Steelers offense if forced into a start.

Have you acquired, sold or dropped any of these players? Or seen them traded? Post a comment and share the deals that have gone down for Prescott, Winston, Peterman and Dobbs in your leagues!
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*2QB/Superflex ADP is not readily available, so these numbers are based off of start 1 QB dynasty ADP. As such, I’ve focused on charting the relative value of QBs compared to others at the position rather than their absolute value in terms of ADP.

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