Risk and Reward Sunday Analysis Week 1

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By John Bush

Risk and Reward Sunday Games Edition

My Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

The data shown in Figure 1 shows the following:

Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 2 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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FIGURE 1  Complete Week Thumbnail Overview

Risk and Reward SundaySlide02

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Figure 2 Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 3. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

Risk and Reward SundaySlide23

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Three High Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Below is the first of my Sunday Game Groups by Game Script Segmentation. I will suggest you use these game in DFS as well as tiebreakers for close decisions. These three games are predicted to have game totals at 50 or higher points.

See my Analysis Below

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Risk and Reward SundaySlide04

ATL vs CHI

ATL

ATL has their first game as an away game. Their RBs are given a +0.6 DAP and a slight advantage. Julio is facing a slightly tough DAP of -0.6, nothing to greatly fear. Ryan also has a near average DAP to face. Hooper the TE may not shine as bright here vs -0.9 DAP.

CHI

CHI finds an easy target for a first game. CHI players are facing easy DAPs across the board. Howard has a nice DAP of +2.1 to go against! Glennon also has an opportunity to start off fast against a +2.7 DAP.  CHI WRs and TEs also have nice DAPs to face as well. This could really flatter many of the CHI players.

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TEN vs OAK

TEN

Ten should be scoring early and often using their RBs as well as WRs and QBs. Walker the TE will also be heard from in this shootout. Play liberally in your DFS stacks

OAK

Oak will also have their firepower on display. Carr and his two WRs will tilt the scoring board. Lynch has to face a -3.9 DAP and will need to show his old form. He will do better in the passing game vs straight away rushing. Note the OAK defense has an easier time vs the TEN defense.

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GB vs SEA

GB

GB drew a tough game one going against SEA. They are playing against high negative DAPs. Their WRs have the best game to keep them afloat here. Montgomery will need his passing skills to have an impact here.  He faces a tough-2.4 DAP. The GB TE also have a tough fight as well. Expect Rodgers to fight to give you his average vs a -2.6 DAP.

SEA

For the Seahawks, Wilson and Baldwin’s show is expected. Play them in your DFS stacks. The murky RB situation faces a tough go at a -2.5 DAP. I suggest no clear answers in the RB hierarchy will be forthcoming from this game.  Mr. Graham has a slightly positive +0.6 DAP to face and will get you those points for your lineups.

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Three Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

The next three games are predicted to have game totals near 48 points. These game are still good not great for finding your DFS sleepers and solid lineup players. Pay attention to positional DAPs in the matchups.

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WAS vs PHI

WAS

The DAP analysis favors strong the success of the WAS WRs. Expect nice production from them and Cousins. The RBs and TEs have the toughest battle at a – 2.5 and -3.5 DAP. Reed should be played but this figures to be not his best game on 2017. A RBBC might happen given the tough rushing DAP and the pass catching RBs could be more in the mix than usual.

PHI

The Eagles face a positive overall DAP of +0.7 and the RBs will excel. Blount and Sproles with even Smallwood should get their chances vs an easy +3.1 DAP. The WRs will project at an average game. The TE Ertz goes up against a +1 DAP. He will also add to your points this week. Maybe a play in DFS as well.

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DET vs ARI

Risk and Reward SundayDET

Stafford and his WRs will lead the Lions Attack going up against a -0.2 and +2.5 DAP respectively. The RBBC and TEs, however, faces a tough test for rushing vs a -4 DAP. Expect Riddick to be catching passes more than usual. Ebron will not help his image much this week.

Risk and Reward SundayARI

Palmer and the Cardinals will face a nice overall average DAP of +0.3. Johnson facing a -2.2 DAP and will be expected to overcome that by his prowess at pass catching. Fitzmagic and crew will collect points for you as well as they face a nice +1 DAP. Finally, an ARI TE may surprise and get a score as they are positionally favored vs a +2.2 DAP.

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CAR vs SF

Risk and Reward SundayCAR

The Panthers show light it up from all positions especially from the RBs (McCaffery) who faces a +9 DAP (walk-over easy). Key in your DFS and Lineups all day long. Olsen and the WRs should also give you need points. They could bust out and generate into a high scoring game.

Risk and Reward SundaySF

Amazingly the 49ners couldn’t ask for a better opportunity to engage into a shootout game. Hyde, however, faces a tough go and will need to catch passes to contribute vs a -2.2 DAP. The 49ners WRs and TEs all have nice DAPs of +1.9 and 2.9 and will score. Has the making of a surprise shootout game.

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Two Below Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

These games should have game totals between 42 to 45 total game points. Certainly, you early round players can be counted on but caution is suggested for other players from these games in DFS and your lineups.

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I usually focus on the higher scoring games. These seem to be true favorites take the points and I would proceed accordingly.

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PIT vs CLE

Risk and Reward SundayPIT

Risk and Reward SundayCLE

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LAR vs IND

LAR

IND

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Three Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

I predict that we will see three low scoring defensive type games. The game totals should be below 42 points. Certainly, super stud players have to be played but the next level players should be treated with caution. Few deep sleepers will come from these games. Extreme caution suggested for fringe players in these three games.

I would focus on the data and be cautious in DFS for sure.  Few bright spots are here for us in these games. BAL has a TE DAP and NYJ has an RB DAPs that invite some action.

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BUF vs NYJ

BUF

NYJ

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HOU vs JAC

HOU

JAC

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CIN vs BAL

CIN

BAL

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