NFL Week 1 DFS Strategy

Lions Golden Tate

playdraftYep, that is almost exactly how I feel.  So I am going to give you some stats to remember, and some players you might want to think about putting in your DFS lineup.  But first, let’s remember some very, important facts:

1. Free games!

There are games that you can get in for free on both DraftKings and FanDuel.  DraftKings the free entry is for a billion dollars for a perfect lineup.  The FanDuel has the stipulation of you depositing dollars and then you get a free play.  So whether you are wanting to play FanDuel and are going to deposit anyway or you want to start off you season with a billion dollars…play on playa.

2. Use your money wisely.  

There are two different types of games and you will need two different strategies for each:

3. Game Types

Cash games are the 50/50s, double up, and head to head games.  50/50s cash games pay out the top 50% and it’s not about finishing first (although seriously it is always about finishing first) the top 50% get paid the same.  That being said you are picking the team with the highest floor possible.  It is okay if everyone has picked, say running back David Johnson, you pick him too.  You don’t want that one player that will differentiate your lineup, you want to be in the top 50%.

Double-ups have the same basic principle as 50/50s.  Except the winning field is slightly lower than 50% and those who do win receive double their money.  Multipliers you win a multiple of your entry fee.  So if you “buy in” with $5. and you are in a 3X multiplier you win $15.

Remember, cash games are the best way to build your bankroll and that’s what it’s about.

Tournaments or GPP (guaranteed prize pool) are usually top heavy in the payouts.  This means you need to finish in the top 1-5% to get paid.  In order to do this you want players with high ceilings.  You want to find that diamond in the rough that nobody else is thinking about to slide into your roster with the players who are obviously going to score high.  Tournaments are going to have high prize pools and a lot…a lot of people entered.  Play wisely.

Now for the important stats you need for your week one plays:

Highest over/unders

– Tennessee Titans v Oakland Raiders 51 o/u Titans a 2 point favorite

– Green Bay Packers v Seattle Seahawks 50 o/u Packers 3 point favorite

– Minnesota Vikings v New Orleans Saints 47.5 o/u Minnesota 3.5 points favorites

Why is this important?  High over under means high scoring and with the first three games at least a close spread means both teams will be scoring.

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GPP Targets

Brian Hoyer   

Not only is Hoyer coming in at a reasonable price but he will play at home against the 28th ranked pass defense from 2016.  The over under for the game is 48.  The line is Carolina by 5.5.  This means that the 49ers will be playing from behind and Hoyer will need to put it up.

Todd Gurley    

This not only proves that I am one to forgive and forget but…well that’s about all it proves personally.  Anyway, the Colts are the 30th ranked defensive unit from 2016.  They will be playing without Andrew Luck, their offensive line is in shambles and they didn’t do much to improve…anywhere.  So yes, Luck is on the offensive side of the ball, but without him you have to know that the Rams’ offense will be spending quality time on the field.  The over/under for this game is 42 with the Rams being a three point favorite at home.

Just an aside, you might want to think about playing the Rams defense, sorry Scott Tolzien.

Pierre Garcon

The stack, if you are playing Hoyer he is going to have to chuck it to someone, and good money is on Garcon.

Reasons Why

These of course are players you will be watching for GPP games.  Remember in cash games you are going for consistency.  Don’t try to be cute in cash games, you just want to finish in the top half.  In GPP it is all about the diamonds in the rough.

Little Reminder

DraftKings allows for last minute replacements.  So if your player hasn’t started yet and you need to make an adjustment, you can.  Put that “iffy” player in your flex position, so your options are more flexible.  And with two Monday night games flexibility is what you want.

Good Luck and after start let me know how your DFS week one went.


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