AFC Defense Against the Position Part 2

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By John Bush

Defense Against the Position (DAP)

In our current drafts, a consideration of a Team’s journey through the 2017 season must be calculated. The so-called strength of schedule (SOS), is a measure of such investigations. Are the Teams running on sand or concrete? Easy vs Hard times expected? The concept of SOS is usually a big overview using such metrics as Total Fantasy Points Allowed by a defense. Thus 2017 team’s facing a large amount of defenses that allow many yards and receptions is said to be easy SOS. The opposite situation is said to be a hard SOS.

I have used a deeper metric Defense Against the Position (DAP), which gives a clearer picture of a team’s future journey for all its positions (QB, RB, TE, WR, K and DEF). Calculating the points allowed by positions from defenses is a better way to predict 2017’s Team journeys.

2016 DAP Data Analysis

Figure 1 and 2 present first the average positional points allowed by each team’s defense in 2016. The variables measured include Total Pts Against/Allowed (SOS) as well the positional DAP averages. The raw number averages are shown in Figure 1and color coded by easy vs hard defenses to face. The 2016 season’s easiest overall was 49ners and Browns and hardest was the Broncos.

Denver was the hardest on QB and the falcons were the easiest. The RB position had a field day against the 49ners and struggled going up against the Titans. The TEs scored alot of points against the Browns and were most likely shut down by the Cardinals. Wide receivers wanted the Packers defense to face and wanted to avoid the Broncos.

Figure 2 shows the raw data scaled to the league average in order for us to “see” a truer data set of DAPs. The averages used are below the table in Figure 1 and colored in yellow highlights. Team DAP were then shown as above or below average in each positional category

Figure 1. DAP Raw Scoring Averages by Team for 2016

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Figure 2. Scaled to League Average DAP by Team for 2016

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This is the second of four articles on the predicted DAPs for the 2017 Season. I will cover 2 team blocks in the AFC to begin. These predictions are based on the 2016 DAPs which is what we have to work with now. In week 4 2017, I will generate the 2017 DAPs and each week the data will get more accurate for usage.

Part 1 Link AFC DAP Part 1 North vs East

 

Explanation Diagram of DAP Figures

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Figure 3. AFC Defense Against the Position South vs West

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The Diagram above highlights the key elements of each Team’s DAP Figure and Graph for 2017.

You must do you own interpretations vs being spoonfed my opinions!

Focus Elements for 2017 TEAM DAP:

  • Home/Away Strength- Focus on the numbers your player’s team must face

  • Playoff Weeks- Draft for you playoffs. Good Tiebreaker

  • Overall 2017 Landscape -See Trendline- Nice way to “see” bigger picture Early vs Late

  • Overall Number of Super Hard to Easy Games. Focus on worst and best case games

 

Figure 4. AFC SOUTH – HOU DAP Analysis 2017

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Figure 5. AFC SOUTH – IND DAP Analysis 2017

IND

Figure 6. AFC SOUTH – JAC DAP Analysis 2017

JAC

Figure 7. AFC SOUTH – TEN DAP Analysis 2017

TEN

Figure 8. AFC WEST – DEN DAP Analysis 2017

DEN

Figure 9. AFC WEST – KC DAP Analysis 2017

KC

Figure 10. AFC WEST – OAK DAP Analysis 2017

OAK

Figure 11. AFC WEST – SD (LAC)  DAP Analysis 2017

LAC

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