PPR Rankings With Risk Analysis Updated

PPR Rankings and Risk

By John Bush

Positional Drafting Landscapes

The next four figures present my own way to “see” your draft.  This illustrated metric is a combination of symbols and colors to represent the current ADP of the scoring system I am looking at.

Questions to Think About Using These Figures

  • Where are the first players from each position being drafted?
  • Where is the Position’s First Sector of 12 players occurring?
  • Are there “runs” on the position and if so where are they occurring by draft picks?

How do you use these landscapes? I use them in my predraft homework. (Yes the professor encourages you to do your homework unless you are in my league. Then forget about it. Just drink a lot of alcohol and hit the autodraft button).

I use them to predict where runs are going to happen. In Figure 1 looking at the TE position for example, in picks 84 to 96 of the draft 5 TEs are on average drafted. That is a natural run. Before Pick 84 only 6 TEs have been grabbed. You then know by the 96th pick the first 11 or 12 TEs are going to be gone. If you have decided to go late TE you now know that at near the 96th pick the late TEs are left to be taken. If you like the top 6 TEs then you must make your move before the 84th draft pick!

This is one example of the draft landscape’s usage! Figure 1 gives you the complete view of the draft. I use this to get a sense of the patterns of positions and the runs to be projected and when. Figures 2 and 3 break it down to rounds 1 to 10 and 11 to 20. Moving from the top down.

 

Figure 1. Rounds 1 to 20 Draft Landscape

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Figures 2. (Rounds 1 to 10) and 3. (Rounds 11 to 20)

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Figure 4 presents a quick shorthand view. This figure gives your a specific draft symbol for the 1st of that positional picks and then the next block of 12 players are shown and so forth. You can see the different blocks of 12 of each position and where each block begins.

In Figure 4, one can predict that the first 12 WR are gone by the 24th pick, the first 12 RBs gone by 30th pick, the first 12 TEs gone by 106th pick and first 12 QBs gone by 96th pick. Predraft homework is based on when and where do you strike? Be ahead of your league!

Divide your draft into multiple acts. Early Mid and Late. I predict that the quick heuristics of picking are different as we go through the draft! You might study your draft patterns to see if improvement is in order. That is a good off-season exercise.  Divide your plans using these patterns and how you will approach these 3 acts in your drafting play!

Figure 4. Shorten Draft View by Positional Sectors in Blocks of 12 Players per Position

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PPR Rankings and Risk By Position

I present my PPR based rankings in the following Figures 5 to 15. The player, team, position and bye week are listed. The PPR rankings are my own metric rankings from 100 (high green) to 0 (low red). Listing each player on a similar scale allows you to compare between positions. Again your predraft work can use these scaled rankings for planning. The next metric is my own Risk level. I use broad analysis to achieve this risk ranking. (Low Risk, Mid and High Risk).

I included aspects of the team, team historical positional usages ( see links below) variations in draft opinions etc. Think of my risk as projections.

(http://www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/10/positional-ppr…2013-16-part-1/)

(http://www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/12/positional-ppr…2013-16-part-2/ )

( http://www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/14/positional-ppr…2013-16-part-3/),

Note low risk does not necessarily mean the best! A low ranked RB5 could have low risk because the price you paid is about the price that player is. The opposite is a low ranked RB5 with high risk is one that has a broader range of outcomes from not playing or could moved up due to skill or injury the team’s RB depth chart.

For example in drafting Defenses, the top 3 have a higher risk than KC. Translate this to mean KC defense is the safest of the top 4 but may not ever be better than fourth. Denver could be the best defense but given their players, SOS, team coaching they could as be lower than KC. Its a measure of chance do you draft in a risky way or are you more conservative? My ranking can be used to fit your style of play!

Figures 5 to 15. PPR Rankings with Risk Analysis.

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Deeper Team Risk Analysis Player Aggregation Metric.

Figure 16 illustrates each team’s overall risk pool.  I aggregated all the draftable players, assigned risk levels and constructed this table with a simple player count within each risk level (High, Mid,and Low Risk). The grand total is the total player count by team. The % H and % L are the percentages of team players in the high vs low risk levels. I finally give you a H/L metric for your top-down view of each NFL teams higher risk player pools. For example CHI has the highest player risk pool with 40 while GB has a nice low 1.4. On average players drafted from CHI are 40X as risky as GB players!

 

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Figure 17 shows the H/L area graph of each team. This area graph clearing shows the levels of player risk across the spectrum (high to lowest). Use this to break ties in similar ranked players!

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Team View of Player PPR Rankings and Risk Category

The final set of figures (Figures 18 to 29) sort each player into their team for a team comparison. You can in a glance “see” the player and where they fit into the Team’s depth chart. Also their risk level is shown by either being in the High Risk, Mid Risk or Low Risk Column.

Use these data to think about WR crowding (see link below), team risk pools (Figures 16 and 17) and tie breaking decisions.

(http://www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/06/wr-crowding-an…17-predictions/ ‎),

Figures 18 to 29

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