Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

Mike Daniels

By John Bush

NFL Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

Introduction

The question to be considered in the first section concerns the effects of NFL Offensive Line Sacks Allowed on other team metrics.  Does the number of sacks allowed altered the team’s running or passing production or balance? A number of fantasy football pundits suggest the answer to this question is; Yes in teams where more sacks occur you will expect to see less passing efficiency and/or production. 

Methods

I gathered the raw data from the years 2014 to 2016 of offensive line’s sacks allowed as well as a series of running, passing and points scored results. These data are presented within Figures 1 to 3. These figures are grouped by high, med and low offensive line sacks allowed and colored coded from red, yellow and green (Worst to Best Offensive Line Sacks Allowed).

These figures besides the sack amounts also list the year, team, passing yards per game (P YDS/G), rushing yards per game (R YDS/G) and total points scored per game (PTS/G). These data were also coded by colors noting high to low production numbers.

NFL Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Statistical Analysis

Statistical analysis was used to investigate the effects of sacks on each of these 3 metric categories. I will not bother to show negative data but the ANOVA testing for all three comparisons: Sacks vs P YDS/G, vs R YDS/G and PTS/G were all above the probability value of 5%. Thus we can not eliminate any differences from levels of sacks as due to randomness. Simple correlations supported no apparent association with a NFL Team’s offensive line sacks allowed and the running, passing or points productions.

This will be a surprise to many, myself included. Some thoughts I have are to add to the sample size by gathering more years data before 2014.  It is possible that the effects are only for some teams only while other teams are not able to fight through a bad offensive line.

This question seems to answered for now. Note that a simple counting of poor production in each group by metrics showed first within the P YDS/G, the high sack situations had 13 poor performances, the middle sacks area had 9 poor performances and finally in the best conditions of low sacks allowed the poor performances were at also at 9. Increased sample size could tease this out.

In the Rushing Yards per Game, were see in the high sacks 14 poor performances, middle sack situations had 10 poor productions, and in the lowest sack conditions we had only 8 poor rushing productions. Suggestive but still not real as of now.

The points per game was 10, 11 and 11 high to low sacks. Nothing suggestive there as well. I leave this analysis feeling a need for deeper data digging but needed to get these findings out.

The answer is that no association exist between offensive line sacks allowed and the tested metrics! 

Figures 1 to 3. NFL Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis High, Medium and Low Sacks Allowed. 

 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

Slide3 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

Team Sacks Allowed by Years: Concern Levels Indicated! 

As the statically analysis was finished (above) I found I had more to present and begin showing each Team’s Sacks allowed by years 2014 to 2016. Figures 4 to 7 show the Sacks allowed over the three years (color coded High to Low: Red to Green). I also simply marked which teams had more concerns in their offensive lines (Red X) vs team’s that had a strong offensive line and gave me low concerns for 2017 (Green Box)

The team’s that concern me are:

Arizona, Carolina, Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle and Tennessee.

I would monitor the preseason and early season to confirm these concerns. Use this information in trades for redrafts for sure. I might also be cautious of WR2s and 3s from these teams. I would not reach for those players and wait for the right price.

Figures 4 to 7.  Offensive Line Sacks Allowed from 2014 to 2016 (color coded High to Low: Red to Green).

Slide4 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

Slide5 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

Slide6 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

Slide7 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

Final Metrics of NFL Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis.

The next series of data focuses onto deeper aspects of the passing game as I still wish to explore this data. I also added rushing yards per attempt to see if sacks seem to effect that metric. I think is always good to look at data in multiple ways for increased understanding

I decided to color coded all the data categories and look at the team by year sacks allowed. I tried to focus on the passing yards per attempt as sack rate might lead to more poorer passing attempts.

I used red and green arrows to highlight those teams that had been move down (red arrows high concerns) vs green arrows for those teams moving up (green arrows less concerns)

The teams that seems to be moving into 2017 on a positive note are:

 Buffalo, Carolina, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Oakland, San Francisco, and Washington.

I suggest WRs from these teams get extra attention especially deeper in the depth charts. I realize that data as well as economists can point in opposite directions. The previous data on sack increases over 2014 to 2016 pointed to Carolina and Green Bay as teams of concern. They remain a concern but this data (increasing passing yards per attempt) might be pointing on just those two teams having players that have or will have to adjust to higher sack levels and yet are making and will need to make the plays!

Figures 8 to 15 Sacks vs Rushing Yards/Attempt, Passing Yard/Attempts, Passing Yards/Catch and Passing Efficiency 

Slide8 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

 

Slide9 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

 

Slide10 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

 

Slide11 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

 

Picture12a Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

 

Slide13 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

 

Slide14 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

 

Slide15 Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis

 

 

Conclusions from NFL Offensive Line Sacks Allowed Analysis.

What everyone accepts as gospel might not be! Teams can be successful even with porous offensive lines

Be concerned about these team’s having higher sacks allowed in 2017 by their offensive lines; Arizona, Carolina, Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle and Tennessee.

These teams for 2017 might improve in their passing yards per attempts; Buffalo, Carolina, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Oakland, San Francisco, and Washington.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>