MLB DFS: 7/25 Pitching Notes

Denny Medley - USA TODAY Sports

There are plenty of pitchers to choose from in our 14-game, MLB DFS slate tonight. Keep an ear out for the newest episode of our 60 Feet 6 Inches podcast by clicking the image below.
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Madison Bumgarner (SF vs. PIT)

Moneyline: -120

Over/Under: 7 1/2

FanDuel: $10,200/DraftKings: $9,700

Bumgarner is trying to get his bearings back after being on the DL for most of the season. It’s rare that we see a run total this low, along with his price on DK. Those two reasons should warrant some exposure tonight, which may be tough because there are so many ways to go with pitching. Bumgarner’s starting against the Pirates tonight, who really tagged up Matt Cain and Josh Osich. This game is a different scenario, as Bumgarner’s trying to pitch himself back into elite status. Overall, he has better numbers at home, which includes strikeout and walk rates, and xFIP just to name a few. On the other side, Jameson Taillon gets the start but he hasn’t been one to pitch very deep into games this season. If the Giants can score a few against him, Bumgarner should outlast him to pick up the win.

 

Charlie Morton (HOU @ PHI)

Moneyline: -160

Over/Under: 8 1/2

FanDuel: $8,600/DraftKings: $8,800

When it comes to the Astros, you know they’re going to hit. When it comes to their pitching, you can feel confident that that’s the reason they’ll get the win. It also means that there’s a chance they’ll give up some runs in the process because they don’t have to be perfect. The most strikeouts by Morton came in 2014, with 126. He’s currently at 83 and looks like he’ll surpass that and can surely do it with the help of the Phillies’ bats. His former team has the seventh highest K-rate over the last 30 days, at 23.4%. Morton may give up a few runs here, but strikeouts and the win can make up for his cost.

 

Jordan Montgomery (NYY vs. CIN)

Moneyline: -168

Over/Under: 9 1/2

FanDuel: $7,300/DraftKings: $5,900

Montgomery’s probably a better play on DK, where he’s the sixth cheapest pitcher and you can pair him up with a more reliable first starter. He has a better K and walk-rate at Yankee Stadium, and also performs better against left-handed batters there too (although, Joey Votto may be an exception). The Reds have shown power and have speed on the bases, yet, they still fall into heavy offensive struggles. They rank in the middle in most of the offensive categories amongst all MLB teams, but they remain in last place in a competitive division. There’s a chance for Montgomery tonight, despite what DK’s price tag on him makes it seem.

 

Sonny Gray (OAK @ TOR)

Moneyline: -110

Over/Under: 9 1/2

FanDuel: $9,100/DraftKings: $10,700

Gray has strung together a few strong starts and his salary on both sites really shows it. As trade talks heat up, this is likely an audition for teams in hopes he’ll be in a contender’s uniform sometime soon. The ballpark for his start tonight isn’t ideal, as he’s pitching in Toronto and previously had four straight starts at home. In their last 10 games, the Blue Jays have only scored five or more runs twice. Their offense hasn’t gotten a chance to click this season, making them a target for opposing pitchers. Gray has gotten more consistent velocity on his fastball compared to last season, which is probably due to his injury. This opens up the door for his effectiveness with other pitches and this start at Rogers Centre should be another addition to his string of strong starts.

 

Jon Gray (COL @ STL)

Moneyline: +105

Over/Under: 8 1/2

FanDuel: $6,900/DraftKings: $9,000

Another Gray, this one doesn’t have to pitch at Coors Field tonight. He gets the start at Busch Stadium, as the underdog. DK has him priced up way more than FD, but you may want exposure to him on both sites. The park shift is a huge plus, and the Cardinals will probably put out a righty heavy lineup. When healthy, Gray is filthy. Getting into the double-digits in strikeouts is always a possibility, and the Rockies’ offense can surely back him up. For the season, they’ve scored 542 runs which is good for second-most in MLB, behind the Astros. The Rockies aren’t just winning at home, but they also have a winning record on the road. Anytime Jon Gray is pitching outside of Colorado, he’s worth a look.

 

Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!


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