MLB DFS: Targets for 7/7

Jake Roth - USA TODAY Sports

There are a couple of early games today, so we’ll cover the 13-game MLB DFS slate as we head into the All-Star break.
60-feet-6-inches-web-bannerPitchers:

Zack Greinke (ARI vs. CIN)

Moneyline: -190

Over/Under: 9

FanDuel: $9,700/DraftKings: $11,200

Greinke’s posting better numbers at home, which we wouldn’t expect. He has a better ERA and WHIP, lower slugging percentage and BABIP, and striking out more batters at Chase Field. His opponent, the Reds, are leaving Colorado to play in Arizona, and that could keep their offense quiet. Another encouraging sign for Greinke is the run total in this game. It’s currently at nine, with the Reds projected to score less than four runs. With a lot of pitching to choose from tonight, rostering Greinke could be the way to go, especially in GPPs on DK.

 

Carlos Carrasco (CLE vs. DET)

Moneyline: -250

Over/Under: 9 1/2

FanDuel: $9,500/DraftKings: $11,000

Carrasco and the Indians are currently the highest favorite to win tonight. Overnight, the moneyline jumped from -205 to -250. He’s facing the Indians in back-to-back starts, and won his last start by pitching seven innings and striking out seven batters in Detroit. Carrasco’s pitched well against them this season in two other starts, and there’s no reason to think he won’t pitch well again. He’s pitched six innings or more in five of his last eight starts, and struck out seven or more batters in five of these games during this span. Carrasco feels like the “safer” play, if you’re choosing between he and Greinke, with Greinke’s start at a hitter’s park.

 

James Paxton (SEA vs. OAK)

Moneyline: -160

Over/Under: 8

FanDuel: $9,200/DraftKings:$8,500

Paxton’s price on DK makes you feel like you need to play him, and you may not be wrong. Expect high ownership of him tonight, as he gets the start against the A’s at home. If you’re a fan of pitching, this should be a fun game to watch between two southpaws, since it has the lowest run total of the night at eight. Paxton got off to a slow start since coming off the DL, but it looks as though he’s returned to form. The A’s having a three-game winning streak, but against pitchers who are not very good. Paxton should be able to get through this game in his usual form and at least make value for salary.

 

Hitters:

Yasmani Grandal (LAD vs. KC)

FanDuel: $3,100/DraftKings: $3,700

If you’re looking for a catcher in the mid-range, Grandal looks to be in a fine spot. The Dodgers are facing the Royals at home, with Jason Hammel taking the mound. Hammel has an ERA over five, and homeruns have been a problem for him. As a switch-hitter, Grandal will have the platoon batting from the left side, which is the preferred side of the plate. The Dodgers as a team have scored the fourth most runs in MLB, and with all of the other lefty bats in the lineup, they could make for a fine stack.

 

Daniel Murphy (WAS vs. ATL)

FanDuel: $3,900 (2B)/DraftKings: $5,000 (2B)

Murphy is a great hitter, and in a small sample size, he’s done great against Braves’ pitcher, R.A. Dickey. In just six at-bats against him, Murphy has four hits – two of which are homeruns. Some hitters can hit knuckleballers, while others can’t. Dickey pitches most of his knuckleballs in the middle of the strike zone. Murphy hits it well there, and he’s also able to knuckeballs down and in, and up and away too. Because of his price, it’ll be might be a challenge to fit him in to DK lineups, but he’s surely worth it as a one-off.

 

Nolan Arenado (COL vs. CWS)

FanDuel: $4,700 (3B)/DraftKings: $5,200 (3B)

This is probably a no-brainer, but Arenado can’t be ignored. The White Sox are sending LHP, Derek Holland, to the mound. With this game being in Colorado, it has the highest run total of the night, as we would expect. Holland has problems with giving up homeruns as it is, but he won’t get any help from Coors Field. Arenado is hitting extremely better if he has the platoon this season, with an OPS of 1.258, .386 ISO, and a wRC+ of 208. If you’re not stacking the Rockies, you can definitely roster Arenado as a one-off.

 

Marcell Ozuna (MIA @ SF)

FanDuel: $3,900 (OF)/DraftKings: $4,200 (OF)

Ozuna already has 23 homeruns on the season, matching his total for 2016. Tonight, the Marlins’ bats are facing Matt Moore at AT&T Park. Going from one pitcher’s park to another isn’t appealing to most, which is why Ozuna could be an under-the-radar play. Although Moore’s pitched better at home, he’s given up the same amount of homeruns at home and on the road, with seven each. It’s easier for right-handed hitters to hit homeruns at AT&T Park, assuming they’re pulling the ball to left field and not hitting it to right/right center wall and McCovey Cove. Ozuna will try to extend his seven-game hitting streak tonight, and he has a good chance at that.

 

Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!


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