Overhype the Offseason 2017 Edition

Hype_Energy_cans_in_fridge

Overhype the Offseason 2017 Edition

Dynasty football is a year round game. Even when there are no games played, there are still movements that create seismic changes in players perceived values. The offseason is a prime time where narratives, conjectures, and hidden statistics influence players value the most, outside of trades, drafts, and injuries. Over the years of playing dynasty football, I’ve seen a lot of weird things that happen too when the narratives go off the rails. In an effort to keep analysts and myself accountable, I will keep a record of all the “Offseason Hype” that is thrown around on the twitterverse/published articles. There are times when these hype are warranted, but often times these are based off film + statistical support; rather than guesses and extrapolations.

I’m going to point out the hypes that “I” personally believe are full of ….[it]. With that said, I’m also placing myself in a position to look like an idiot for not paying attention to well-reasoned arguments.

John Weast - Getty Images

John Weast – Getty Images

Joe Mixon is deserving of his 3rd round ADP. While I do think Joe Mixon is a very good (maybe even top tier RB), I think his hype is building to a critical point where people have convinced themselves that other factors shouldn’t matter. It’s known that Bengals OL will be taking a step back. This would mean that both the passing and running game will suffer as a result, which puts Mixon squarely in the same risk category as Fournette and McCaffrey (Both of who I believe are also overdrafted, but at the least people know the risk going in with either). Lastly, the Bengals are now 2 years removed from their best OC. Typically, I see a dramatic regression when an established OC is replaced by a lesser known guy in year two.

Last 5 games (college):
vs. Auburn 91 yd – 4.8 avg. – 2 TD / 5 rec – 89 yd
vs Oklahoma St. 99 yd – 9.0 avg. – 1 TD / 2 rec – 19 yd – 1 TD
@WVU 147 yd – 6.1 avg. – 1 TD / 1 rec – 10 yd
vs Baylor 124 yd – 8.9 – 1 TD / 5 rec – 63 yd
vs Kansas 74 yd – 8.2 – 1 TD / 2 rec – 35 yd

Terrelle Pryor

Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports

Terrelle Pryor will retain the same productivity and even be a better WR than he was last year. Yes, Pryor got a better QB and probably a better supporting cast…on paper. However, I believe that Hue Jackson was the best thing that happened for Pryor, and would’ve liked him better had he stayed with the guy who made his transformation to WR a success.

Now, with an overinflated self-confidence, Pryor is seeking to prove he’s a great WR with a different team, because he felt insulted by Browns’ offer. For me, there has been too few instances where WR who moved on to a different team found sustained success. Second, as much of a great season as Pryor had, he totaled total TD and with 0 TD between Nov and December. Concerning yards, TP had only put up 75+ yds in 6 games (with 1 of them being in week 17), and of those games only one back to back weeks. Pryor’s fantasy stats was also elevated a little by having to play QB for a few games when the Browns starters died like flies. He will not be getting the QB opportunity in Washington or looking forward. Last point against Pryor is the way he finished the season. It was a really bad December where he was less than useful even in PPR league.

I do not like it when a player fades late in the year (not explained by injury). Perhaps Pryor will enjoy a great September, but I see him trending in the wrong direction as the year go on.

Last 5 games (Cleveland Brown):
@Pit 7 rec – 94 yd
vs SD 3 rec – 36 yd
@Buf 4 rec – 19 yd
vs. Cin 1 rec – 3 yd
vs NYG 6 rec – 131 yd

Chargers Melvin Gordon

Todd Warshaw – Getty Images

Melvin Gordon is still an elite RB. As a rookie, MG3 had a really bad TD rate and total. In his sophomore year, as regression would’ve predicted, he enjoyed a great TD year. So, many expect a negative regression to hit his TD, but should see an uptick in his total yards.

With that said, I don’t think his uptick in yards will make up for the TD regression. Additionally, his OL only improved this year….on paper…I typically don’t expect OLs to gel, until late in the season, or year two, especially when all the pieces come back intact. Unfortunately, inconsistency at OL continues to be a problem for LAC. MG3 is  talented running back in his own right, but I’d be a buyer of MG3 in 2018, not 2017.

Last 5 games (San Diego Chargers):
vs TB 84 yd – 4.9 avg. – 1 TD / 4 rec – 54 yd
@Hou 70 yd – 4.1 avg. / 4 rec – 19 yd
vs Mia 70 yd – 2.9 avg. / 5  rec – 62 yd
vs Ten 196 yd – 6.1 avg. – 1 TD / 4 rec – 65 yd
@Den 111 yd – 4.8 avg. / 4 rec – 44 yd

Isaiah Crowell wins Free Agency

media.cleveland.com

Isaiah Crowell is going to become elite. Crowell’s hype is basically a carbon copy of MG3 hype. Better OL, better supporting cast than last year, all peripheral stats points to a good back. But! it is my believe that the Crowell you want is the 2016 version. That was his peak year, and this is the time to sell Crowell, not buy. He was inconsistent at best with no back to back good games to account for his whole season. Here lied on the receiving game to keep his fantasy points numbers up. With that said, I think both Duke and Crow will be used in the same way, so that will stay similar in terms of his ground and air game (0 receiving TD btw). Additionally, having read Joe Holka’s (@JoeHolka) Rushing Expectation article, a small blurb in his write up reminded me something that Matt Waldman (@MattWaldmanRSP) wrote

Finally, the supposed improve OL, much like my reasoning for MG3, probably won’t come together in 2017. And by 2018, Isaiah’s contract is up, and he’s either off the greener pasture, or he’s competing for a job vs. next year’s stellar rookie class.

Last 5 games (Cleveland Brown)
@Pit 152 yd – 8.0 avg. / 3 rec – 16 yd
vs SD 54 yd – 3.4 avg. – 2 TD / 4 rec – 4 yd
@Buf 28 yd – 3.5 avg.
vs Cin 113 yd – 11.3 avg. / 1 rec – 5 yd
vs NYG 44 yd – 2.8 avg. / 6 rec – 47 yd

Being the first to identify a breakout player, really gets people’s adrenaline and endorphin running at an all time high. People love to pound their chest, and let the world know they are “the first” or part of the “truther hive”. I love it too. At the same time, these players who are being hyped up really didn’t show me much to let me believe they are ready to jump into a the top 12 conversation – or in MG3’s case, to pay off his ADP.

I am taking a strong stance against these players, and this is a rarity for me to be strongly oppose to younger players. Just looking at the pool of players around where these players are going, I can confidently say that I rather have someone else over them. Personally, I think their draft value should drop at least 15 – 20 spots.

 

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