MLB DFS: 6/23 Pitching Notes

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With games having higher than normal projected run totals, I’ll go over the other side of it and discuss pitchers that I really like for tonight’s 15-game MLB DFS slate. If you haven’t already, take a listen to our mid-week podcast for your season-long fantasy baseball leagues, with a new episode coming out on Sunday!

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Chris Archer (TB vs. BAL)

Moneyline: -200

Over/Under: 8 1/2

FanDuel: $10,400/DraftKings: $12,500

A batting order full of right-handed batters is what you want when rostering Archer, especially this year with his splits. His K/9 at home is 1o.23 for his career, versus 8.87 on the road. The matchup against the Orioles lines up nicely for Archer’s upside. The Orioles as a team are striking out at a rate of 23.8%, and they have the negative park shift working against them. Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching for the Orioles, and the Rays’ bats from both sides of the plate should find success against him. This game has one of the lower run totals of the night, which leads to the assumption that Archer shouldn’t be giving up many runs and he can get the win.

 

Alex Wood (LAD vs. COL)

Moneyline: -200

Over/Under: 8

FanDuel: $9,500/DraftKings: $9,600

Wood hasn’t really skipped a beat. In his last game at Cincinnati, he pitched eight innings and only gave up a solo shot, without giving up any walks. Back to Los Angeles, he’s facing the Rockies. If there’s something to Colorado and the altitude, this is a time to roster their opposing pitcher and fade their hitters. Wood actually has reverse splits in regards to hitter-handedness this season, so avoiding him because of the Rockies’ righties could be a mistake.

 

Patrick Corbin (ARI vs. PHI)

Moneyline: -200

Over/Under: 10

FanDuel: $8,200/DraftKings: $7,600

Corbin’s last start in Philadelphia was a good one, but with tonight’s start being in Arizona, there’s a chance things could turn out differently. With that being said, Corbin is a GPP play, and better one as a second pitcher for you on DK. It wouldn’t surprise me to pitch a just as effective game, but we need to realistic about Chase Field, where bad teams can look good. Mark Leiter Jr., is getting the start for the Phillies, and it’s his first start of the season. The most he’s pitched out of the ‘pen is three innings back on May 2nd. It looks like the D-backs should provide enough run support for Corbin tonight, and their left-handed bats will be popular.

 

John Lackey (CHC @ MIA)

Moneyline: -127

Over/Under: 9 1/2

FanDuel: $8,500/DraftKings: $6,500

Lackey has been underwhelming this season, and that can be a good thing for DFS. He pitched well in his last game in Pittsburgh, and he has another start in a pitcher’s park tonight in Miami. Because of its inconsistency, we can’t plan on Lackey having big strikeout games, and he does give up walks and home runs. If you’re looking to have some exposure to Lackey, it should be on DK as your second pitcher. Christian Yelich has cooled off, and Giancarlo Stanton has been hit or miss, making the top portion of the Marlin’s batting order a little soft right now. Lackey can certainly pull off the minimum that we need for his salary on DK.

 

J.A. Happ (TOR @ KC)

Moneyline: -140

Over/Under: 9 1/2

FanDuel: $8,300/DraftKings: $8,000

Happ has had some shaky outings this season, but pitched well enough for quality starts in his last two games, with a total of 17 strikeouts and just one walk. Tonight, he faces the Royals in Kansas City. He has a positive ball park shift, and is pitching against one of the worst offenses in MLB. It’ll be worth it to have some exposure to him, considering the moneyline increased by 10 overnight. Starting for the Royals is Jake Junis. He only has four starts this season, and hadn’t pitched well in three of them. The Blue Jays are coming out of a series at Globe Life Park in Arlington, and on paper, this doesn’t look like a good park shift for their bats. It’s easy to ignore them tonight but you probably shouldn’t with Junis on the mound.

 

Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!


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