MLB DFS: Targets for 6/16

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

We’re seeing a trend for MLB DFS again for tonight’s 15-game slate. There are a bunch of high scoring games, which could be a result of so many starting pitchers going on the DL. Couple that with the surge in offense that hasn’t stopped since last season, and we’re scrounging for pitchers to roster.

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Pitchers:

Junior Guerra (MIL vs. SD)

Moneyline: -166

Over/Under: 10

FanDuel: $8,100/DraftKings: $6,200

Starting pitchers against the Padres – yes, please! For his price on DK, it’s going to be hard not to use Guerra as your second pitcher. The Padres took advantage of the positive ballpark shift in Cincy, but I think they’ll run into trouble tonight in Milwaukee. Guerra’s been doing just fine since returning from the DL and that’s enough against this season’s Padres team. They’re still striking out the second most in MLB, and not taking many walks. If Guerra can avoid a walk or two, and gain at least a couple more strikeouts, that should make his salary on FD worth it.

Alex Wood (LAD @ CIN)

Moneyline: -175

Over/Under: 9 1/2

FanDuel: $8,600/DraftKings: $9,100

Wood is back in the rotation, as a result of the Dodgers’ DL carousel. The Great American Ball Park isn’t ideal for pitching, but Wood has put up excellent numbers so far, with 11.24 K/9 and a 2.01 ERA. Wood just faced the Reds in Los Angeles, but he should be in better form for this start. Being a lefty, he should be able to tame the bats of Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Scott Schebler, and Adam Duvall. For a pitcher that can get you the QS and pile up the strikeouts, he’s a viable target on both sites, especially FD.

Patrick Corbin (ARI @ PHI)

Moneyline: +106

Over/Under: 8 1/2

FanDuel: $8,000/DraftKings: $7,400

Corbin is my guy if you want to take a chance. The D-Backs being the dog in this game is more about Aaron Nola‘s abilities, than the offense that the D-Backs are capable of putting out. In their last 10 games, the Phillies have only scored five or more runs just one time! Corbin’s numbers look underwhelming if you’re scanning his game log. He doesn’t pitch deep into games, he’ll give up a few runs and walks, and the strikeouts aren’t always there. But it’s hard not to take advantage of a Phillies team who has been struggling offensively for years. Corbin’s worth a shot in GPPs.

 

Hitters:

Edwin Encarnacion (CLE @ MIN)

FanDuel: $3,600 (1B)/DraftKings: $4,900 (1B)

Encarnacion is heating up, just in time for summer. He’s a streaky hitter so it’s a good idea to take advantage of it while we can. He has hits in five of his last six games. During this time he’s also scored eight runs, which is impressive because he bats fifth in the order. Left-hander, Nik Turley, is pitching against the Indians tonight. He just got his first start of his career out of the way (I like to avoid pitchers making their first start). The Indians have a ton of bats from the right side of the plate and they could be stacked.

Brandon Belt (SF @ COL)

FanDuel: $3,500 (1B)/DraftKings: $4,600 (1B/OF)

AT&T Park holds back Belt’s homerun numbers, so he’s worth a look anytime he can get to a hitter’s park. Coors Field isn’t just any hitter’s park, of course. Belt and the Giants are another possible stack for tonight, with Rockies sending Antonio Senzatela to the mound. Senzatela has been fine, but he’s not pitching as deep into games, and has been walking more batters, all of which favors Belt and the Giants. While Belt already has 11 homeruns for the season, 12 games had passed between his last two. I think regression has come, and it’s time to take advantage of what we’re given this weekend in this series.

Justin Turner (LAD @ CIN)

FanDuel: $3,600 (3B)/DraftKings: $4,500 (3B)

Turner has missed some playing time (like many players with the new 10-day DL), but he’s carrying an 11-game hitting streak into this game. The Reds are sending RHP, Tim Adleman to the mound. Adelman’s last start was against the Dodgers, but with this game being in Cincy, I think he’ll have a more difficult time in this matchup. Turner’s been batting third, which is great for fantasy-point opportunities. He also has reverse splits, so you can definitely roster him against RHPs. The Dodgers are another team that I like for a stack tonight.

Aledmys Diaz (STL @ BAL)

FanDuel: $3,000 (SS)/DraftKings: $3,700 (SS)

In his last 12 games, Diaz has only gone hitless in two of them. For his price, I don’t think we need to worry about him batting seventh because he’s consistently getting some kind of points whenever he gets on base. Kevin Gausman is pitching for the Orioles tonight, and he’s been awful. This season, RHBs are slugging .581 against him, versus .414 against LHBs. Gausman’s had reverse splits during his career, but they’ve widen this season. Advanced stats for Diaz’s career favor RHPs, and I really like this matchup for him tonight.

Mitch Haniger (SEA @ TEX)

FanDuel: $3,600 (OF)/DraftKings: $4,600 (OF)

Haniger’s picked up where he left off after his stint on the DL. He won’t have a ton of power, but he’ll get on base through hits and walks. Batting second in the order really helps him to score runs while being in front of hitters like Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager. This will be Tyson Ross‘ first start of the season and I’m not exactly sure how it’ll pan out. I’m leaning more towards the side of it being a struggle for him, and that’s why I like the Mariners’ bats tonight.

 

Teams to stack:

San Francisco Giants (@ Colorado Rockies)

Los Angeles Dodgers (@ Cincinnati Reds)

Seattle Mariners (@ Texas Rangers)

 

Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!


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