MLB DFS: 5/9 Pitching Notes

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There’s a lot to choose from in tonight’s 14-game MLB DFS slate, and I have some pitching notes to get you started. Also, check out: Pat’s Stacks if you’re looking to stack teams in your GPPs.

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Charlie Morton (HOU vs. ATL)

Moneyline: -194

Over/Under: 8 1/2

FanDuel: $7,800/DraftKings: $7,600

The Braves are visiting the Astros for this series, with Morton and the Astros being strong favorites for the win. The Braves as a team are better offensively than last season, but they are still vulnerable and their starting pitching has a tough time keeping them competitive in games. Morton has opened eyes with his increased velocity and strikeouts. So far this season, his swinging strike rate is its best in his career (if you don’t count his injury-ending season with the Phillies) at 10.5%, and contact rate is down to 76.5%. Morton should be able to handle the Braves.

Ivan Nova (PIT @ LAD)

Moneyline: +170

Over/Under: 7 1/2

FanDuel: $8,400/DraftKings: $8,200

Nova’s been quietly doing his thing under the radar, but maybe that’s a good thing. His last outing at Cincinnati was his “worst” of the season, but looks to bounce back at Dodger Stadium. What’s pretty amazing about Nova this season is that he’s only given up one walk, which was against the Yankees, who have a 10.9% walk-rate as a team this season. The Dodgers as a team are walking at a rate of 10.2%. We shouldn’t assume that Nova will give up walks against teams with those numbers. It’s been a few days since the Dodgers have faced a pitcher who’s been pitching as well as Nova, so they could have some trouble tonight.

Julio Urias (LAD vs. PIT)

Moneyline: -200

Over/Under: 7 1/2

FanDuel: $7,300/DraftKings: $8,000

Last night, Alex Wood pitched five innings and racked up 11 strikeouts. The Pirates haven’t been a team to strikeout so much, with a K-rate of 19.4% as a team for the season. That game might be an outlier, but Urias does have strikeout potential as well, with a 9.64 K/9 this season in AAA, and 9.82 in 15 game starts in the majors in 2016. The Pirates have only scored four or more runs three times in their last 10 games. Urias surely looks to have the upper hand in tonight’s matchup.

Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!

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