MLB DFS: Targets for 4/7

Joy R. Absalon - USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a fun, first week of baseball and for MLB DFS! For tonight, there’s a smaller than usual slate because of the day games, but we still have 10 games to work with. If you’re ever curious about the results of my articles, scroll down to the bottom of the page and they are posted for the previous article.

60-feet-6-inches-web-banner

Pitchers:

Francisco Liriano (TOR @ TB)

Moneyline: -124

Over/Under: 8

FanDuel: $8,000/DraftKings: $8,900

Liriano is set to make his first start of the night in Tampa Bay against the Rays. Marcus Stroman was able to keep the Rays quiet last night, and I think that will continue tonight. It’s also nice to take advantage of the ballpark for Liriano since he’ll be pitching at Tropicana Field. He’s turned things around a bit after having a poor showing to start 2016 with the Pirates. The move to the Blue Jays didn’t seem ideal, but Liriano’s performed good enough for him to be usable in the right spots. No one pops off the page for pitching tonight, and with Liriano being the highest priced pitcher on the main slate, he’ll probably be highly owned.

Mike Leake (STL vs. CIN)

Moneyline: -170

Over/Under: 8

FanDuel: $6,600/DraftKings: $6,800

On most nights you probably don’t need to consider these prices for your only starter on FD, but this is one of the few times. If you don’t want to play Liriano, Leake is another target. He can surely be your second (or maybe first) pitcher on DK, up against his former team, the Reds at home. It’s a negative park shift for the Reds, who opened their season at home. Busch Stadium isn’t an easy place to pitch if you’re the away team, and the Cardinals should be able to tag up Reds’ LHP, Amir Garrett tonight.

Hitters:

Brian Dozier (MIN @ CWS)

FanDuel: $3,600 (2B)/DraftKings: $4,600 (2B)

For what Dozier’s able to do at the plate, it’s interesting to see him continue to bat leadoff (then again, the Twins don’t have many options). He already has three stolen bases, and while it’s nice to know he can get points in that category, it’s unlikely to continue at this pace. The Twins are in Chicago for this series at Guaranteed Rate Field (what is happening with these terrible names for stadiums and fields)? Derek Holland will be on the mound for the White Sox, and as a LHP, Dozier will have the platoon. Holland’s splits against RHHs are pretty extreme and especially so in 2016, where you can see on this FanGraphs page. Play Dozier as a one-off, or in a right-handed Twins stack.

Manny Machado (BAL vs. NYY)

FanDuel: $3,800 (3B)/DraftKings: $5,600 (3B/SS)

There are other games that are projected to score more runs, so there’s a chance Machado may go overlooked, especially with his price on DK. The Orioles are at home tonight against the Yankees and Luis Severino. Severino has reverse splits, with RHH having more success against him by giving up 1.8 HR/9. We know what Machado’s capable of and this is a great matchup for him.

Jake Lamb (ARI vs. CLE)

FanDuel: $3,100 (3B)/DraftKings: $4,200 (3B)

Lamb has been outstanding so far against pitchers like Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. This weekend series starts with Josh Tomlin and the Indians. Right now, this game has a run total of 10, up half a run from last night. Tomlin is another pitcher with reverse splits, but LHHs also have great numbers against him, too. Over his career, Tomlin’s giving up 1.55 HR/9 to LHHs, and a hard hit rate of 31.8%. The Giant’s threw fastballs to Lamb 63.4% of the time. Tomlin in his career has his fastball hit for flyballs 44.2% of the time. With this game being at Chase Field, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another Lamb bomb again tonight.

Other hitters to target:

Stephen Vogt (OAK @ TEX)

FanDuel: $2,800 (C)/DraftKings: $3,800 (C/1B)

Anthony Rizzo (CHC @ MIL)

FanDuel: $4,000 (1B)/DraftKings: $5,500 (1B)

Travis Shaw (MIL vs. CHC)

FanDuel: $3,200 (3B)/DraftKings: $3,700 (1B/3B)

Christian Yelich (MIA @ NYM)

FanDuel: $3,100 (OF)/DraftKings: $4,100 (OF)

Stephen Piscotty (STL vs. CIN)

FanDuel: $3,100 (OF)/DraftKings: $4,300 (OF)

Results from 4/5 value plays:

Screen Shot 2017-04-07 at 8.28.34 AM

Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!

One Comment

  1. Steve

    April 7, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    great article as always. love the dozier machado calls ill be playing machado on FD where he is cheaper. and yes i will be rocking with liriano in cash. i might have to have a few cocktails tonight lol. keep up the great work

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>