NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 7

NFL Eliminator Challenge

Welcome to the seventh week of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! Last week we went 2-1 again, hitting our pick of the week as the Bills manhandled the 49ers in Buffalo.  We additionally saw another dominant performance by the Patriots as they beat the Bengals at home.  Our streak is now up to six and it is time to go for seven!  Read on and feel free to comment at the end.

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last week we saw the Chargers beat the Broncos on Thursday night at home. The Texans came back to beat the Colts at home.  Even the Saints won a blowout against the Panthers at home.  What do all these games have in common (other than showing that home field advantage is back)?  They were all division games and were both unpredictable and exciting to watch.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division matchups:

  • Bears at Packers
  • Bills at Dolphins
  • Browns at Bengals
  • Seahawks at Cardinals
  • Colts at Titans

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

While the Monday night matchup might have been a snoozer, the Thursday night and Sunday night games were both decided by a touchdown or less, and both were a play away from going either way. Unless you want to take a chance I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Bears at Packers
  • Seahawks at Cardinals
  • Texans at Broncos

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Last week there were 15 matchups including Thursday and Monday night. Of those 15 games, only three of them were won by the away team.  That means the home team won 80% of the games last week.  That included a Dolphins upset over the Steelers, a Chargers upset over the Broncos, and a Redskins upset over the Eagles.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Giants at Rams
  • Vikings at Eagles
  • Buccaneers at 49ers
  • Patriots at Steelers

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Falcons over Chargers

Many people have doubted the Falcons but after strong showings against Denver, Carolina, and Seattle, they may prove to be the real deal. Their offense is flying on all cylinders and this week they host a very inconsistent Chargers team that is 0-3 on the road.  While I expect a shoot-out, I also expect the Falcons to win.

Other options I like this week:

  • Chiefs over Saints

The Chiefs are a very good team at home, especially this season where they are currently undefeated at 2-0 on their home court. On the other side of the stadium is a very inconsistent Saints team coming off a big win.  I expect the Saints to fall off their high horse this week and the Chiefs to start the season 3-0 at home.

  • Patriots over Steelers

Yes, this goes against our earlier rule, but if Big Ben is truly out of this game, I don’t see how the Steelers could pull off this upset. Brady comeback tour moves to 3-0 this Sunday.

 

Thanks for reading!

Feel free to follow me for great fantasy football advice on twitter @DE_aaron

One Comment

  1. FootballDave

    October 18, 2016 at 11:01 am

    Hi, id anyone aware of Bee coming back, hope he is ok. Who will keep the idp info flowing?
    Thanks

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