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NFL Week 5 Favorite DFS Plays
At quarterback my favorite plays are Tom Brady $7500 and Ryan Fitzpatrick $5100 on Draft Kings. Brady is easy and I’m guessing will be very high owned with the angry Tom Brady narrative. He is coming off a 4 games suspension, narrative street is running wild and the Cleveland Browns are sitting in front of him. I would be surprised if he doesn’t throw 3-4 touchdowns and go well over 300 yards. The Patriots aren’t ones to lay off the gas pedal.
Unfortentely this isn’t going to be a very contrarian play though. I would expect a lot of Brady lineups. You can differenitate with his receivers quite easy though. Any of the Edelmann, Amendola, Hogan, Gronk, Bennett, or even James White could be beneficiarys.
The contrarian play for me is Fitzpatrick. His price is $100 over min on DK, he has been absolutely terrible this year, Eric Decker is probably out again, and is playing a Defense that stiffled the Chiefs on national TV. His ownership will be down but that price puts him in play for me. To get 4x value in a tournament you only need 20 points out of Fitz which he can easily pull off. His ceiling is still high and they will have to score to keep pace with the high powered Steelers. I will enjoy the extra $2400 in savings to spend elsewhere. This year the Steelers have given up at least 300 yards passing in 3 of 4 games with the lowest being 287 last week by Alex Smith. This is a defense that funnels to the pass.
At running back Jordan Howard $5200 and Jerick McKinnon $4000 will be highly owned but you probably have to use them. Running Back value is down this week. I like either using both of them or grabbing McKinnon and grabbing Le’Veon Bell, Demarco Murray, C.J. Anderson, or Todd Gurley.
Gurley at $6500 is really interesting to me. He has routinely faced 8-9 men in the box and just can’t get going. Last week Jeff Fisher finally threw him a couple passes and he looked good catching them. With Buffalo traveling across country I like this to potentially be the Todd Gurley coming out party for 2016. It will happen eventually, I am making sure to get him in atleast 20% of my lineups. Don’t Play him in Cash tough.
I think Demarco $7200 is the safest play this week. Miami is a mess on defense and Demarco is such a large part of the Titans offense. C.J. Anderson at home against the Falcons is a great spot. A weak run defense, I really like stacking CJ with the Broncos D. So many people will be scared away from the Broncos high price and playing the redhot Falcons but Matt Ryan is a much different player on the road outdoors. He is very turnover prone and I don’t think their line can hold up to the Broncos pass rush. This is my favorite RB/Def stack this week.
At wideout I am stacking Edelmann $6700 a lot in my Brady lineups and Enunwa $4600 with Fitzpatrick. Edelmann is due to get going, Brady will be feeding him the ball this week. I like Enunwa more that Marshall because of the price and because Pittsburg has played a lot of zone and forced underneath passing. I think Enunwa could see 12 targets this week.
With the Fitz stack I am also throwing Antonio Brown $9800 into these lineups. Darell Revis is Pro Football Focus’ number 102 coverage corner out of 112 qualifiers. AB is in a prime spot even at the hefty price tag. If you want to pay down, look no further than the other side of the field from AB, Sammie Coates is $3600 on DK. Coates is quietly on pace for 1128 yards but is still yet to get in the endzone. That should change very soon.
Odell Beckham Jr is my favorite play this week. At $8500 he is due, coming off an ugly Monday night, I think his ownership will be down. Expect big things Sunday night facing the Packers who have given up 9/182/1 to Steffon Diggs and 6/205/2 to Marvin Jones in their last 2 games without Sam Shields who still isn’t back at practice. I will gladly take advantage of all the OBJ haters out there who simply won’t play him because they don’t like his antics.
I do think both Jordy Nelson $7900 and Randall Cobb $6200 are in play as well in this game against a very banged up Giants secondary. Cobb is due and coming off the bye I think they will find ways to get him the ball and get him going. He will be a contrarian play at that price point and the fact he hasn’t done much all year.
Lastly I like Dontrelle Inman $4100 and Tavon Austin $3700 this week. Inman is coming off 11 targets and seems to have the best chemistry with Rivers. Inman is playing in Keenan Allen’s spot, While Benjamin and Williams are staying outside.
Austin will have low ownership and is a boom or bust GPP play. His targets are up this year and he is always a threat to break a long one. His value helps you get to AB and OBJ.
A couple others to keep an eye on are Devante Parker $4900 getting the Parish Cox treatment this week (that’s a good thing) and Brice Butler $3500 if Dez is still out.
The tight ends I like are Gronk $6500, Hunter Henry $3300, Zach Ertz $2500, and Richard Rodgers $2900. Gronk gets Brady so he has to be thought about. Henry has played well in Gates out and price remains low. I think Gates will miss another game. Ertz sounds like is a full go after the bye and gets the tight end inept Detroit Lions who gave up another TD last week to the tight end. Richard Rodgers is the only show in town and is a redzone target for Green Bay.
Keep an eye on the Antonio Gates situation, he was at practice yesterday in a limited role. You can late swap to Ertz or go down to Rodgers is you need to. One more guy I do like is Charles Clay $2700. That price tag really helps, if you are strapped for cash he is an option.
At defense I mentioned my favorite above the Denver Broncos $3800. If I don’t have enough I like the Vikings at home $3400, the Patriots $3700 in Cleveland, and maybe just maybe the Lions $2500 at home against the Eagles. This is a hard week for cheap defenses, I am probably just paying up in most cases.
Hit me up on twitter @BigTimeSethyBob to discuss or argue. Or challenge me on Draft Kings my username is spikedfbats