NFL DFS: Week 4 Monday and Thursday Playbook

David Johnson

Welcome back to the week 4 NFL DFS playbook, the Monday and Thursday night edition. Last week was a solid week, but not quite the game flows that I expected. This week has some big questions looming ahead. The biggest thing to monitor is Carson Palmer and his progression through the NFL concussion protocol. Hopefully everything falls into place and we can continue to build our bankroll in this short week. All of my prices are according to DraftKings.

 

Quarterback

Sam Bradford ($5,100)

The only person who gets excited about the name Sam Bradford is his mother. Nobody feels good trotting him out there in a lineup. But I have all the confidence in the world that he can get around 200 passing yards and at least one touchdown. The Giants defense is banged up pretty badly and has more question marks than the Riddler. I love Bradford as the contrarian play this week.

Eli Manning ($6,100)

Eli will be the highest owned Giant this week without the last name Beckham. He’s been playing great, averaging three times his salary. The only problem is that this Minnesota defense is really good and Eli implodes at least two games a season. Still, this Giants receiving corps is one of the best in the league and they will be needing to throw the ball with their backfield shaky at best. He’s a safe play for cash games.

Colin Kaepernick ($5,000)/Blaine Gabbert ($5,000)

Full disclosure here: I think Kap will be named the starter this week because Blaine Gabbert has been playing like Blaine Gabbert so far this season. Kaepernick is a much better fit for this offense and should excel if his arm isn’t dead like Chip Kelly preaches to the world. Say what you want about Kaepernick and his personal decisions off the field, but he could be a DFS goldmine this week if he’s given the start. Gabbert is a play and pray for me in a tournament lineup.

 

Running Back

David Johnson ($7,900)

Johnson should be in every lineup this week. He’s been worth every penny in DFS and I see no reason that should slow down tonight. San Francisco is not a good defensive team and if Carson Palmer is out, they are going to run the ball all night long. Spend up and don’t think twice.

Carlos Hyde ($4,800)

Get your shit together DraftKings. I know with all the DFS controversy that’s been generated lately people have been shouting that, but Hyde is criminally undervalued this week. He’s been one of the five best players at his position and we have seen that he is going to get the ball no matter how lopsided the game. He’ll be highly owned but it’s because you know he is going to get at least 20 touches for this game.

Paul Perkins ($3,000)

Shane Vereen is out for the season and it is highly unlikely that Rashad Jennings plays tonight as well. Orleans Darkwa will get the start but head coach Ben McAdoo has made it clear that Perkins will get touches. For such a low price, if he scores a touchdown then he already returns his value. I love him this week and think he’s a super sneaky play this week.

 

Wide Receiver

Sterling Shepard ($5,800)

I loved watching Shepard in college and he has been one of the best rookies this season. Eli trusts him and I think he is a natural pivot from Odell Beckham Jr. He’s cheaper and has been out producing OBJ All season long. I think if I’m the Vikings, I’m rolling coverage to Beckham and I think that Shephard will be a great play in a PPR setup.

John Brown ($4,400)

Michael Floyd is a garbage can and Larry Fitzgerald is a little too expensive for my blood. I was glad to see Brown have a big game this week, but I know that his ownership in DFS is going to be higher now. Still, he’s so cheap that he allows you to get some of the bigger names in your lineup if you are playing cash games. He had 16 targets alone against the Rams and I expect that Bruce Arians will continue to get him involved more in the offense this week.

Torrey Smith ($3,900)

Smith was one decent throw away from having a solid game this week for at least a 60 yard touchdown. Unfortunately, Blaine Gabbert is a dumpster fire and managed to overthrow one of the fastest receivers in the NFL. He’s a homerun hitter but all it takes is one play for Smith to be the fantasy darling in your lineup.

Stefon Diggs ($6,100)

Diggs is the biggest question mark for me at the position. I think he’ll be highly owned because he’s cheap and the other Vikings receivers are irrelevant. With the Giants being so banged up, it’s hard to fade him though. Not to mention, he had a bad game last week so people are going to be fading him a little more and his ownership will be down. I don’t think he has a monster game but it would surprise me for 80 yards and a touchdown this week.

 

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph ($3,400)

Rudolph was a guy I believed in for years, so it makes me happy to finally see him be relevant again in fantasy football. Bradford loves going to him in the redzone so that bodes well for him to find the pay dirt this week. I think the Vikings will need to throw more than people think so Rudolph is easily the must start in this offense this week and the guy I’m most comfortable starting at the positon.

Garrett Celek ($2,600)

Vance McDonald is still banged up, so I would be surprised to see him play on such a short week. The tight end position has been a pretty productive one in this 49ers offense. I think that’s the best way to attack this Cardinals defense is through the middle of the field and Celek should get at least 8 fantasy points, which is almost four times his salary. Rudolph is easily the guy this week but Celek makes for a nice under the radar guy with little risk in my opinion.

 

Defense

Arizona Cardinals ($3,700)

If Blaine Gabbert is starting, he’s going to turn the ball over at some point. The defense hasn’t been playing their best so far, but Gabbert can right that ship for any defense he faces any week. I think everyone will be on the Vikings this week but the Cards are who I’m playing across the board.

San Frisco 49ers ($2,600)

I’m including the 49ers solely for the chance that Carson Palmer is out this week. Drew Stanton or whoever is under center for the Cardinals doesn’t exactly install fear into any defense. While I’m not over the moon about the 49ers, I think they’re worth a chance in a GPP.

You can reach me on Twitter with any thoughts, questions, concerns, or just want to talk fantasy sports. 

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