NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2016

Cam Newton

Welcome to Week 4 of NFL Picks Against the Spread, where we have an opportunity to right the ship and get back on track. We improved on a 1-4 week with a 2-3 week. I know its been rough thus far but the column is 8-7 on the season. Things are going to get better this week. I’m feeling a 5-0 mark as we are starting to learn how good or bad these teams really are. Lets find some winners!

Carolina Panthers -3.5 at Atlanta Falcons

This week puts the Carolina Panthers in a huge bounce back spot after getting embarrassed on their home field a week ago. The Vikings offense is legit and wrecked havoc on the Panthers offense. This week Cam Newton and company face a Falcons defense that is nowhere close to what the Vikings deploy. They should have a field day. As for the Falcons, the finally get a real test when the Panthers come to town. They have a less the raucous home field that should have plenty of Panther fans making the trip. Matt Ryan has been really good through three games but those games came against the Buccaneers who were lit up by the Case Keenum, the Raiders who allowed 500 plus yards of offense in each of the first two weeks and the Saints who have so many injuries in the secondary I may be getting a tryout. Take the Panthers this week-3.5 and they’ll remind everyone they are one of the NFC’s best.

Pick: Panthers -3.5

(Jim Mone/Associated Press )

Jim Mone – Associated Press

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 vs Denver Broncos

I know this makes little sense but hang with me. The Broncos are undefeated and coming into this game after an impressive road victory in Cincinnati. Trevor Siemian played great and carried the Bronco offense. The Buccaneers come into this game at 1-2 after being embarrassed on their home field by the Los Angeles Rams. That said Tampa Bay is absolutely the right side here. Vegas is begging you to take the Broncos and 70% of the public bet is on their side. Yet the line moved from 3.5 to 3. Not a huge line move but one that says more money is on the Bucs here. The Broncos have put in a ton of miles the past week and likely will be sluggish and I can’t see Trevor Siemian winning back to back road games. Take the Bucs in this spot especially if you can find a 3.5 which may be available closer to game time.

Pick: Buccaneers +3

Tennessee Titans +4.5 at Houston Texans

This is an interesting contest and one that may decide the AFC South down the road. The Texans lost a massive piece when J.J. Watt was placed on injured reserve. He is massive part of the defense and allows the rest of the team to create havoc all over the field. Last season Houston struggled on the defensive side of the ball and started the season losing five of their first seven games. The Titans have shown the ability to run the football consistently and play solid defense. These two things travel well. I think this game comes down to a late field goal with the Titans having a legit shot to get the outright win. Take Tennessee plus the points to be safe.

Pick: Titans +4.5

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Christian Petersen – Getty Images

 

San Francisco 49ers +2 vs Dallas Cowboys

I love the 49ers in this spot. They are coming home after two really tough road matchups to face a Cowboys team coming off of back to back wins against wins. The Cowboys looked great against a very poor Bears defense. This week they face an underrated 49ers defense without Dez Bryant who garners a ton of the defense’s attention. The Cowboys will need to lean on the run game if they want to leave San Francisco with a W. The Niners have shown the ability to move the ball against tough defenses in Seattle and Carolina. If they can establish the run at home, San Francisco should have a great chance to cover the 2 points. A number that has moved down from the original 3 point line despite more bets coming in on the Cowboys. Go with the smart money and take the home team.

Pick: 49ers +2

Kansas City Chiefs +5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a very interesting spot for both teams. The Steelers come into this game after getting their doors blown off by the Philadelphia Eagles. They also get Le’Veon Bell back for this game which should be a huge boost to their team. The Chiefs come into this game after an impressive six interception performance against the New York Jets Ryan Fitzpatrick. Some may say that it had more to do with Fitztragic than the Chiefs defense but I don’t. I think the Chiefs have an elite defense who have only allowed a combined 21 points the past two weeks after getting off to a rocky start. I also expect their offense to be able to move the ball against a Steeler defense that has issues in the secondary. The Steelers likely get the win at home in prime time but I think the Chiefs keep it close enough to cover the 5 point spread.

Pick: Chiefs +5

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