MLB DFS: Targets for 9/9

Can Carlos Martinez become a top-25 pitcher in 2016?

There’s a little different look for our MLB DFS article today, but this layout should be helpful as well.

Clayton Kershaw is back, but he’s battling against Jose Fernandez at only a -135 favorite, which decreased by 10 overnight. Kershaw will probably be on a leash, whether it be an innings or pitch limit. The Washington Nationals are the highest favorite for the win at -270, but Tanner Roark hasn’t been putting up the fantasy points we need during the last 3 of 4 starts. September baseball is not always par for the course, so keep an open mind because what usually would be chalk will may not always be chalky.

Pitchers to target

Carlos Martinez (STL vs. MIL)

Moneyline: -220

Over/Under: 8

FanDuel: $10,000/DraftKings: $10,300

Martinez dominated against the Brewers a couple of starts ago and accumulated 13 strikeouts along the way, with 11 and eight in two other starts against them this season. The park shift back home is definitely in favor of Martinez, and there’s no reason to think that he can’t find the same success. The Cardinals bats should be able to score runs against Jimmy Nelson to get the win for Martinez.

Madison Bumgarner (SF @ ARI)

Moneyline: -190

Over/Under: 8 1/2

FanDuel: $10,700/DraftKings: $11,200

Bumgarner showed up in a big way in his last start against the Cubs in Chicago, and will face the Diamondbacks offense tonight. The Dbacks had struggled to score runs, but even going home to a better park might not help because of who they’re having to face. Over his career, Bumgarner’s been able to tame bats at Chase Field, with allowing just .385 slugging, .292 OBP, and .263 BABIP.

Julio Teheran (ATL vs. NYM)

Moneyline: -130

Over/Under: 8

FanDuel: $8,600/DraftKings: $10,700

Teheran has pitched well over his last two starts; granted they were against below average offenses, it’s still a good sign after coming off of the DL. The Braves are back at home with one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks. Back in June, Teheran faced the Mets in back-to-back starts where he pitched a combined 17 scoreless innings, gave up only six hits, and 14 Ks. The Mets lineup currently looks different, but Teheran has the stuff to continue these strong starts.

Michael Pineda (NYY vs. TB)

Moneyline: -145

Over/Under: 8 1/2

FanDuel: $8,200/DraftKings: $7,400

I have some interest in Pineda tonight against the Rays. The Rays have a K-rate of 24.2% which is 3rd in the most in the league, while ranking in the bottom half in walk-rate, BABIP, and OBP. This is an opportunity for Pineda’s strikeouts to get back on track, and there could be one less offensive threat if Brad Miller sits out with an elbow injury. Of the 14 home runs that Pineda has given up this season, 14 of them have been off of right-handed bats. If the Rays try to load up on left-handed bats, it might not be bad for Pineda to avoid the long ball.

Pitchers to target against

Marco Estrada (TOR vs. BOS)

Estrada’s coming back down to Earth, and it’s happening fast. In five of his last starts, Estrada’s given up home runs in four of them, and 19 earned runs altogether in those five games. David Ortiz could be the highest-owned at first base tonight with the Red Sox potentially being a popular stack. You can look to Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogearts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. in GPPs.

Jimmy Nelson (MIL @ STL)

Nelson has had a tough go of it this season and going into Busch Stadium is no easy task. Left-handed bats, like Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss are in play, and Kolten Wong too if he gets the start. Right-handers this season are having success against Nelson also, making Jedd Gyroko, Stephen Piscotty, and Randal Grichuk appealing options as well.

Luis Perdomo (SD vs. COL)

Perdomo is having trouble with giving up home runs this season and he’ll be facing a Rockies lineup that does a lot of that. Given that this game is not at Coors Field, expectations should be tempered a little, but with Perdomo giving up 1.84 HR/9 to lefty bats, that makes nice targets of the usual suspects of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and David Dahl. We also can’t forget Nolan Arenado, who has 29 of his 37 home runs this season, off of right-handed pitchers.

Other batters to target:

Yankees Starlin Castro

Adam Hunger – USA TODAY Sports

Starlin Castro (NYY vs. TB)

People may not be on the Yankees side of this game because of southpaw, Blake Snell, being on the hill. If there’s a one-off to play in this game, I like Starlin Castro. Snell’s given up all four of his home runs allowed to right-handed bats. Castro’s definitely made the most of the change in teams, and can surely hit one out with the pop he has in his bat.

Pedro Alvarez (BAL @ DET)

Michael Fulmer hasn’t been sharp as of late, and tonight he faces an Orioles team who has hit the most home runs in the majors. Alvarez shouldn’t go overlooked, espeically if Chris Davis sits out again.

Brandon Crawford (SF @ ARI)

DraftKings priced up Crawford a little bit at $4,500 for today’s match up against Rubby De La Rosa, whereas he’s just $3,200 on FanDuel. With the platoon, a hitter’s park, and a big outfield to hit towards, Crawford has a chance to get his bag going again in this game.

Christian Yelich (MIA vs. LAD)

If you like BVP, Yelich is 4 for 9 against Kershaw in his career, and if there’s a time to roster hitters against him, today’s the day. As mentioned earlier, Kershaw will probably be limited so a chunk of this game will be a bullpen game, giving Yelich a chance at having the platoon.

Results from 9/6 targets:

2016_09-06

Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!

For more help winning your fantasy baseball league check out Fake Pigskin’s 60 Feet 6 Inches podcast on iTunes and Stitcher

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