2QB Dynasty Fantasy Football – Quarterback roulette: not a Siemulation!

2QB Dynasty Fantasy Football - Quarterback roulette: not a Siemulation!

2QB Dynasty Fantasy Football – Quarterback roulette: not a Siemulation!

A common poker phrase is “All you need is a chip and a chair.”

I could tell you a lot of stories about me taking money from people at a poker table, but a particular afternoon that comes to mind happened at a video poker machine.  I was awarded ten dollars for signing up for a player’s card and took it to the machines to waste some time on a Saturday this summer.  I played for about two hours and got down to my last quarter.  I decided to take a break and grab a drink, but before I did, I wanted to put that last quarter in.  When I did, I won $85.  I still went for that drink, but you can imagine I felt very different about spending money on it than I would have without the win.

That last opportunity – the tiny edge that keeps you in the game is all a football player needs sometimes.  “Put me in and see what I can do, and I won’t disappoint you.”  99.99% of football players from high school to college never get a chance to start in an NFL game.  Trevor Siemian will get that chance this year.  He HAS a chip and a chair, and right now that’s worth more than what Mark Sanchez lost and what Paxton Lynch has yet to gain.  What will he do with it?  The next few games will decide if he keeps the job or has to give up his chair.

But what if he wins $85 tonight?  What if the Broncos win with Trevor Siemian at the helm and he doesn’t regress?  Well, he keeps the job.  That simple.  And when he does, his price goes way up.

He’s worth trying to make a last-minute trade in mandatory start 2QB dynasty leagues, because he’s still cheap until we know what he’s going to do.  A mid-second-round pick is about right as a price because you can immediately use him in week 1.  If someone tries to get a first for him, maybe you can add a player to the second-round pick, but don’t overpay.  We don’t yet know how things will work out and he could be a Mike Glennon-type of player who plays for a while before the redshirt first rounder is called in to start.  If he winds up sitting behind Paxton Lynch for another three years, his value will take a hit.

But also like Mike Glennon, his possibly sitting isn’t necessarily a bad thing for his long-term value.  Years down the road he will get another look and might wind up starting for another QB-needy team.

So the question is, how much of a gambler are you?  Are you going to drop that quarter in, or wait to see what happens and possibly miss the open window?  He’s already got the job…

 

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