Redraft Value Picks: Rounds 5-8

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Part 2 on my top value by round. As a heads up these are taken from MFL’s 10 team leagues drafted after July 15th, 2016 and all “rounds” are based off a PPR 10 team league. If you play in a larger or smaller league like the MacArthur’s and friends you will have to do the simple math based on their ADP. In these mid rounds I have taken the liberty at times to give you 2 options because drafting at this point will heavily depend on the construction of your team. Without further ado here are rounds 5-8.

Round 5 Top Value- Julian Edelman &/or Doug Baldwin

This pick depends on your spot in the 5th round and what you might prefer. Edelman current ADP of 45, with an average draft spot of 51 is a mid 5th rounder right now. The PPR format has been very friendly to Julian Edelman over the years. He is a high volume play and PPR monster. He has had problems staying on the field over the years so if that scares you off. Doug Baldwin is your other option here. Baldwin’s current ADP of 50 puts him at the end of round 5 with a 54.4 average draft position. Baldwin won’t get you as many catches as Edelman but he has been much healthier over his career and last year he was a touchdown machine down the stretch.

In actuallity both are very good picks at this point in the draft. I would personally take Edelmann if he’s there and try and nab Hogan or Amendola late for insurance but I believe Baldwin will produce similar numbers to last year. Each year Seattle throws the ball more, trusting Russell Wilson more and more. With Baldwin’s repor with Wilson, these two will hook up 10 times for scores this year. Since 2013 Baldwin has increased his receptions each year from 50, 66, to 78 last year. Expect 75-85 catches this year, easily getting you value in the 5th round.

As for Edelman, he has caught on average 6.5 in each of the last 3 years. He is a lock to grab 100 balls if healthy all year, it’s hard to find a guy like that this late. At worst Edelman for 9-12 games + replacement is better than most at this point in the draft.

Round 6 Top Value- Eric Decker, NYJ WR

Decker is currently going as the 57th player off the board with an average draft position of 67.8. Decker just is not a sexy pick but all the dude does is produce. He’s had atleast 11 TDs in 3 of the past 4 years, was targetted 132 times in 15 games with 12 touchdowns. The receivers being picked around him are 2 of the Arizona receivers, Devante Parker, and Tyler Lockett. Fitz and Floyd are both great but they only have 1 ball and there are 4 very viable pass catchers playing with Carson Palmer. Parker and Lockett are 2nd year players that haven’t really proved it yet. Decker playing 2nd fiddle to Brandon Marshall will give you a ton of value in the 6th.

Decker also will benefit from a 2nd year working with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets have a pass happy attack that have also lost their bruising running back Chris Ivory to the Jags. The addition of Matt Forte and with the compliment of Bilal Powell it should suggest a more pass happy attack. The 2 running backs, Brandon Marshall, and Jace Amaro coming back from injury should lead to a lot of 1 on 1 coverage for Eric Decker. Expect another double digit TD season.

Round 7 Top Value- Carson Palmer, AZ QB

To be honest he is actually going as pick number 2 of round 8 with an average draft spot of 77.93. But when you look at the guys going in the 7th, I wouldn’t want any of them at their current price. Palmer is the top option at that point. Waiting on QB is the strategy but don’t wait all day. As I mentioned above Palmer has a plethora of pass catchers at his disposal and a coach who likes to chuck it all over the field. With Fitzgerald, Floyd, Brown, and David Johnson being his top targets he should easily match his numbers from last year where he threw 35 tds and 4600 yds.

Palmer is going almost 2 full rounds later than Blake Bortles and Tom Brady. Brady will be missing the 1st 4 games. Bortles coming off a breakout year still had fewer fantasy points than Palmer a year ago. If you can get Palmer in the 8th, don’t wait.

Round 8 Top Value- Melvin Gordon, SD RB

Gordon is the 75th player off the board with an average draft position of 83.6. Now there are no actual stats that suggest Gordon is a value pick. He finally scored his 1st NFL Touchdown in week 1 of the preseason, after failing to do so in both the pre and regular seasons last year. He also fumbled 6 times last year. So he doesn’t exactly scream value. But everything that led Gordon to be drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round of fantasy drafts a year ago still rain true. The chargers spent a 1st round pick on him. He has a the size and speed combination to carry the load through a full season. Lastly he plays in an offense that moves the ball and produces fantasy production.

Now saying there aren’t stats that back this pick up is a little misleading. If you look at Melvin Gordon’s numbers from last year they aren’t great. But they do show a few things. He caught 33 of 37 targets last year, while Danny Woodhead was handling most of the passing down work. That shows he does have the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, so he doesn’t have to necessarily leave the field on 3rd downs. Danny Woodhead isn’t the most durable player, so if anything happens to him, Gordon could be a true 3 down back.

Another stat I like is that the Chargers stayed with Gordon despite his fumbles and lack of production. He received double digit carries in all but 2 of his 14 games last year. This shows that the Chargers do believe they have a talented player. The Chargers also drafted Derek Watt who was Gordon’s fullback at Wisconsin. Having a true fullback on the roster and one the Gordon is familiar with could lead to some big days and after a tough week 1 matchup with the Chiefs he gets the Jags, Colts, and Saints the next 3 weeks which could build his confidence giving you terrific value from your RB 2 or 3.

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