2QB Dynasty: Finding value after the first two rounds

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2QB Dynasty: Finding value after the first two rounds

I’ve long been a proponent of taking elite young quarterbacks with the first two picks in a two quarterback dynasty startup (and for trading for them if you’re inheriting an orphan).  This strategy challenges an owner to find the value picks after the first two rounds of a startup for the next most valuable position – wide receiver.  Many strategies exist for this such as looking for the “recency bias” picks like Michael Floyd who under-performed last year due to injury.  One might also settle on seasoned players and work the draft and trade market in subsequent seasons.  My preferred method on how to find value after the first two rounds is to seek rookie value in wide receivers.

I feel that the best indicator of rookie value is one simple test.  What was their catch ratio on targets thrown to them in their last year of college?  This doesn’t seek to discount other work by professionals who diligently study routes, coverage and other metrics available to the studious observer (Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception stands out as a fantastic product and I recommend it highly).  Rather this looks at what I consider to be the single most important indicator of NFL success in a wide receiver which is did they actually catch the ball that was thrown to them?  You’re a receiver.  It’s your job to receive.  Did you perform that one task better than your peers?

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Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall puts out an amazing spreadsheet and article every year going over target-to-catch ratio for all college players and from this we can gather data for the top wide receivers drafted to the NFL.  Which ones will make my two quarterback dynasty teams in 2016?  Here they are in the order they were drafted:

Targets to Catches Spreadsheet 2016

2QB Dynasty: Finding value after the first two rounds

As you can see, Sterling Shepard, Josh Doctson and Tyler Boyd are my top WR rookie pick values and I would expect to be able to get all three of them after drafting my two top quarterbacks, using the third round to find a sophomore or veteran wide receiver.  Sterling Shepard in particular has been a favorite target of mine throughout the offseason in large part due to the aforementioned Reception Perception work by Matt Harmon.  Where I was unable to trade up to get Ezekiel Elliott in dynasty rookie drafts, I’ve nearly always been able to trade up to the 1.02 or 1.03 and acquire Shepard.  As a result of both he and Odell Beckam Jr. being on the same team, I’ve also moved Eli Manning up in my ranks and am trying to acquire him in trades.

Don’t be pressured into thinking that the best dynasty wide receivers need to be taken up front in two quarterback dynasty.  If you get two elite young quarterbacks, they will win you leagues for more than a decade while you can draft wide receivers, running backs and tight ends in the first rounds of rookie drafts for the foreseeable future.

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