Dynasty vs Redraft: Quarterback and Tight End

dynoredraft

Dave Cherney @roadwarrior_D
IT Consultant; Fantasy Football Original Gangster

Contributor / Marketing Specialist for FakePigskin ; Owner / Moderator ofThe #1 NFL Fantasy Football CommunityGoogle Plus blog.

Dr. John Bush @prof_fantasy1
Associate Professor of Biology

John writes for his blog; Fantasy Sports Professors and has published a fantasy football textbookWinning Your Fantasy Football Draft: A Professor’s Textbook”  (Amazon ebook).

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By Dave Cherney and (Guest) Dr. John Bush

Previously: Dynasty v Redraft: The Draft we began this series testing how similar Dynasty and Redraft league drafts are.

Mission Statement:

Dave and John will research, analyze and report, through a series of articles, the relationships within and between Dynasty and Redraft leagues. We are committed to giving you sufficient leverage for success in either or both worlds.

Strength and Weakness:

Dave is a 9-year veteran in dynasty leagues while John is an expert in the redraft arena. Yet when each ventures into the others waters, they tend to sink for a reason we plan to excavate. A fusion of these two individuals’ talents and visions hope to open a pathway into development of a new interdisciplinary view of fantasy football from both perspectives.

Phase 1B – Deep Draft Analysis; Quarterbacks and Tight Ends

The Quarterback

Having previously shown the overall draft strategy between the two formats, we next want to see the entire landscape of positional picking and look at Dynasty vs. Redraft systems.

We present in the next series of figures; tabular data of the quarterback and tight end positions. These tables show the player, their Dynasty vs. Redraft ranking and finally the D – R number as the difference between the systems. The color staining of green means that player is more valued in a Redraft setting and a red coloring highlights those players more valued by Dynasty players. The data was sorted by high to low ranks in Redraft leagues.

Figure 3

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Interesting observations can be seen from data in Figure 3 of the quarterback position. The first 15 quarterbacks by redraft ranking are for the most part more valued in a Redraft vs. Dynasty league setting. The exceptions are Andrew Luck and David Carr; the only two players to have a negative D-R number.

Andrew Luck is highly prized in Dynasty vs. Redraft. Note the switch that occurs after Kirk Cousins. Of the next 10, five are more strongly valued in Dynasty vs. Redraft! One could easily have predicted Tyrod Taylor from Buffalo to have been in that Dynasty favored group but not so.

The average of the quarterback position was a plus-8. So we can conclude that redraft players would value the average quarterback slightly more than dynasty players.

We next graph the data from the Figure 3 table and generated Figure 4. This graph plots the D-R number from high to low quarterback in redraft. We clearly “see” the late quarterbacks are more valued in dynasty leagues, suggesting these prospects are drafted for multiple seasons vs. redraft players that need the production now.  

Figure 4

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John’s Observation

I was not expecting the clear favoring of the younger quarterbacks in dynasty. I can see again that having a redraft player’s mindset, in dynasty I was grabbing the old dogs and avoiding the young. In redraft, it is too risky to go for the late quarterbacks that are unproven! We look for seasoned players like Matt Ryan that have a series of good targets. This year I am grabbing him and others like him in my redrafts.

I was also surprised that dynasty players were more focused on Andrew Luck. I wonder how old is too old in dynasty? I do love our invention of D-R numbers. The graphing of these numbers really shows the bias landscape using our area graphs. So it looks like Dynasty players are using a biased “barbell” approach. Early quarterback targets such as Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are desired in both worlds. However, the worlds differ in the next group from about the fifth ranked quarterback to about the 15th. That is the land of the redraft biased quarterback picks. Dynasty players are just getting warmed up at the 15th quarterback late within the choices.

So I can see my failure in dynasty league was by drafting in the middle. But that is a strong approach in redrafts. Dynasty players might wait too late and draft a quarterback too late when they should have grabbed one earlier in redrafts. Again our purpose was to spot these areas of danger in moving between the drafting worlds. After reading all these articles, form your own plan and go for it!

Dave’s Observation

Along the Dynasty landscape you will often hear one common theme. Draft and/or trade for youth. 25 and under seems to be the threshold. Get that young quarterback who can take you to the Promised Land for the foreseeable future. That’s great news for me because I don’t believe that for one second. I have been fielding a championship team going on its fifth year having drafted Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer in 2012. They have remained planted on my squad ever since. I realize that I’ll never get any value if I ever decide to trade one but I will say the offers do roll in.

Checking the graphic, you will note that Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariotta are the most sought after which makes sense. They were the two top quarterbacks coming out last year. On the other hand the D-R rating of Ryan Tannehill shows exactly the enigma he is.

In redraft, I have always waited until the later rounds to draft my quarterbacks and tend to mix and match them depending on that week’s opponent. I have had intermittent success with the plan, yet I’ve notice most of the champions in my leagues usually have one of the top tier quarterbacks. Upon further review it may be worth an earlier pick on my behalf so I’m not playing weekly Russian roulette. Revisionist history also shows with the back-end quarterback drafting, if one of these players is out for an extended period of time my squad is put in a severely disadvantageous position for the duration of the injury.

The Tight End

We next move onto the tight end position. Figure 5 presents their position tabular data. Analysis suggests the top 10 tight ends are valued more by redraft while it flips to dynasty bias in the lower ranked players. The high positive numbers are very strong to the redraft players while the later have lower negative numbers. Let’s consider it a tale of two cities. The redraft city rules the higher ranked tight ends while the future tight ends are being recognized by dynasty players and supported accordingly.

Figure 6 shows the landscape and the two-world concept is clearly seen. A redraft player would not have the vision to see the future as do the hard-core dynasty players would.

Figure 5

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Figure 6

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John’s Observation

The “barbell” effect exists here as well when I am looking at the D-R area landscape graphs. The effect is not as pronounced as in the quarterback landscape which itself is interesting. It looks like both types of players look to draft them some early tight ends. So as a redraft player that seems reasonable. It’s the dynasty draft favoring of the unproven rookie tight ends that I would miss as a redraft player in a dynasty league. It also seems the depth of tight end drafting is higher than for quarterbacks. I hypothesize that tight ends are slower to develop as rookies (rookie articles are coming) and dynasty player are aware of that and maybe drafting multiples of rookie types of tight ends onto their teams. I will look to see if Dave comments on that idea. I will say that rookie tight ends are not the same as the other positions in their first year value! I know that because I have run the rookie data (upcoming)  

Dave’s Observation

John has once again hit the nail on the head; very few tight ends produce in their first years. According to NFL.com, just 25 tight ends have eclipsed 500 yards in their rookie year while only Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have exceeded the five touchdown mark in the last 10 years.

As a rule, tight ends tend to go much later in dynasty rookie drafts and stashed on the bench until they are either cultivated or released… usually the later. Players like Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz have owners who are patient; hoping this is their breakout year.

This is yet another position seen frequently streamed in the redraft world. Much like quarterback, I have always waited on the position and once again have had mixed results. At times I’ve had to pick up a player off the waiver wire, thus once again putting my squad at a disadvantage.

Looking back at both positions and my former mentality toward them, it may serve me well to select one of each much earlier than normal.

To be continued…

Next, we deliver the detailed breakdown of the Running Backs and Wide Receivers. We believe within each of these worlds lie the key positions to a championship. The values of each are very different as we presented in the first article. The third article shall complete our initial circuit and we can move onward to the rookies and their value in both formats! Stay tuned to FakePigskin.

 

 

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