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Go Get Charles Sims Before It’s Too Late
A large part of dynasty fantasy football is assessing value. Being able to find and acquire players before their uptick in value is a key.
You should make Charles Sims an offseason target.
In DLF’s most recent ADP, Sims is being drafted at 106 as the RB35. He’s being drafted behind guys such as C.J. Prosise, Kenneth Dixon, and Duke Johnson. What these three players have in common is they all want to be as fantasy relevant as Charles Sims is.
Sims is being drafted behind players with a very similar outlook
Last year, Sims was the PPR RB17, just behind Giovani Bernard. While Johnson is a much more trendy pick this season, he finished as the RB23 last year. Prosise and Dixon are in very crowded backfields and many of their dynasty owners would be ecstatic if they outperformed Sims this season.
But dynasty is obviously about more than just this season, so to look ahead let’s first look back. Coming out of college, Sims had some really strong comparables based on his size, speed, and college production.
This list has some seriously positive comps for Sims, including Prosise himself. What stands out about this list, aside from the appearance of Forte, Bernard, and Lynch, is that Sims was the best college receiver out of a group of highly successful receiving backs. He’s simply great at what he does.
So if Sims is such a strong prospect and has good production, why is he being drafted so low? One explanation is the presence of Doug Martin. While guys like Prosise, Dixon, and Johnson all have a slightly clearer path to volume carries, Sims is stuck behind a feature back who just got an extension.
But I’m not fretting. Why?
Sims has a defined role that he’s really good at
Last year there were only three players who received over 100 carries and over 70 targets.
While Sims had a disappointing rookie season with under three yards per carry, he was much better in year two hitting almost five. He benefitted from often running against six-man boxes, Sims was still a significantly better runner in year two. Plus, he obviously gets a ton of targets for running backs and is very efficient in those targets.
His outlook looks even better in the coming future as Pewter Report’s Mark Cook “really believes” Charles Sims will see an increase in carries, and Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter called Sims “an every-down back, if need be”. If Sims sees an increase in carries, even if his efficiency dips, he could potentially hit 700 yards or more.
Plus, I expect the Buccaneers to target their running backs a bit more. While the Buccaneers hired Todd Monken as their offensive coordinator with Koetter moving to head coach, Koetter will maintain play-calling responsibilities. In Koetter’s three years as offensive coordinator of the Falcons his running backs totaled 124 targets, 146 targets, 119 targets, while the Buccaneers gave their RBs 117 last year.
If that number bumps up to 125 or so and Sims gets an increase in targets, he could have more than enough volume to be a successful RB2.
What’s potentially more important for maintaining his role, is the Buccaneers game script looks good for Sims.
According to Bovada, the over/under for the Buccaneers win total is 7.5 this season, after finishing 6-10 in Jameis Winston‘s rookie year. They’re non-division schedule includes the Cardinals, Broncos, Panthers, Chiefs, and Seahawks. While the team is moving in the right direction they’re pythagorean win expectation is only about six wins, so they will still be down in the majority of their games and as that happens they’ll need to keep Sims on the field.
Sims is currently being drafted as the RB31 in redraft and RB35 in dynasty, both of which provide great opportunities for value. He’s priced significantly below his floor in redraft. While the Doug Martin extension does hurt Sims’ dynasty outlook for the short-term, his seasonal floor is good enough to make him worth targeting in trades. And in a couple of seasons when Sims’ contract is up, he will either go to a new team with a larger role, or be re-signed by Tampa Bay which would show they’re committed to giving him the ball.
While Sims might not have the true upside of a Kenneth Dixon or a Duke Johnson, his floor is high and he’s a prime candidate for a guy who’s value will increase with another season of production.
Go get him before that bump.