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- 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
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Jarvis Landry’s Dynasty ADP Is Whack
Jarvis Landry has been a polarizing fantasy football player ever since he got into the NFL, for several reasons. He was taken in the second round, so obviously the Dolphins have faith in him, but his 40-time leaves a lot to be desired. He’s got great volume, but doesn’t score a lot of touchdowns. For every positive about him, there’s a negative.
According to DynastyLeagueFootball’s June ADP, Landry is going 28th as the 20th receiver off the board. Just ahead of Jordy Nelson and Jordan Matthews, and just behind Devante Parker and Donte Moncrief.
This is too high.
This isn’t to say that Landry can’t be a fantasy contributor or even to say that he’s not a good dynasty asset. I’m not even saying Landry is a bad football player. But at his current ADP, he’s just not a good value (drink!) for a few reasons: he’s woefully inefficient, he’s not even the best wide receiver on his team, and there are much better options with similar ADPs.
Lack of efficiency
Of players with seasons of 100 receptions, Landry has the sixth lowest yards per reception ever. He also has the ninth worst yards per target, since targets were were even recorded.
Now, you might say, “the reason his efficiency is so bad is because he runs mostly underneath routes, I mean look at the guys on that list.”
That’s woefully untrue.
As you can see, Julian Edelman and Wes Welker, two guys that are the staple of this type of receiver, both were very efficient targets for Tom Brady, despite running mostly underneath routes.
But Jarvis Landry? Since he’s come in the league, he’s been a horribly inefficient target for Ryan Tannehill. In fact, he’s closer to Brandon Gibson in adjusted yards per attempt, as he is to Brian Hartline.
While touchdowns can be fluky, and aren’t a true measure of a receiver’s actual efficiency, scoring can certainly help boost fantasy efficiency. Landry only has nine touchdowns over his two-year career, less than Ted Ginn Jr. had just last season.
He’s even more inept at scoring touchdowns when you look at players with high volume. Of players with at least 100 receptions, Landry’s four touchdowns last season puts him tied for fourth worst ever.
So he’s volume dependent while simultaneously not scoring touchdowns. That’s not a good recipe for success, especially when the Dolphins are starting to bring along Devante Parker, who is already better at scoring touchdowns.
Landry might not be the best receiver on his team
The dynasty community is infatuated with Devante Parker. As I said earlier, he’s already jumped Landry in dynasty ADP. Maybe Parker’s anointment is a little too early, maybe it’s not. But there are certainly reasons as to why.
As shown above, Tannehill was hyper-efficient when throwing to Parker. Parker also scored three touchdowns in four games. Plus, he came into the league as a much better prospect than Landry.
Whether you believe in athletic traits or production, both Parker and Carroo clearly have Landry beat, at least athletically. Carroo is obviously more of an unknown, but going out and drafting a receiver when you already have two productive ones, plus Kenny Stills has got to mean something.
Backers of Landry will point to his statistics when Parker finally got healthy, in weeks 12-16.
During this period, the Dolphins went 2-4 and only scored more than 20 points one time. With Landry being featured, the offense wasn’t good. This doesn’t mean Landry is a bad player. It means he’s not good enough to be a number one option. And if he doesn’t get the targets of a number one option, his lack of efficiency will be exposed.
That being said, the production alongside Parker is obviously a positive sign for Landry. But if you’re expecting Landry to get 188 targets, you’re kidding yourself. He had 166 last season, and I expect him to regress a bit in that category. Why?
Partially because I expect Devante Parker to gather a greater target share, and partially because since 1992 (when target data is available from), there have been 72 cases of players getting at least 165 targets in a season. Not counting players who did it this past season and only counting players who played at least 14 games in the following season, there have been 50 cases of players playing at least 14 games the season after they cracked 165.
In those 50 cases, the average target regression in the following year was 13 percent. If Landry’s targets were reduced by 13 percent he would have 144 and taking his catch rate and touchdown rate, his season line would be: 100 receptions, 993 yards, 4.6 touchdowns. That’s 226 fantasy points and 14.1 per game. Looks pretty solid yeah? Except it would’ve put him at the 26th PPR receiver last year in points per game.
That doesn’t look like the guy you’re drafting as the 18th receiver in MFL10s.
But this story is about dynasty ADP. I actually think Landry will have a fine year in redraft, probably around WR 22. Still below his redraft ADP, but not horrible. The problem I see is him being drafted as the 28th overall player in dynasty and 20th receiver.
There are much better options around his dynasty ADP
The receivers I like near Landry in dynasty ADP are Devante Parker (WR19), Donte Moncrief (WR18), and Jordan Matthews (WR23).
Where should I begin?
First thing f***ing last: all three of these guys were better prospects coming out of college.
Parker and Matthews were both decidedly better athletes while also having significantly more production in college.
Moncrief’s production wasn’t quote there, but he’s the most explosive athlete of the bunch. Plus, while the sample size is relatively small due to injuries his rookie year and an injury to Luck last season, Moncrief looks like the real deal. And he’s been endorsed by Matt Harmon so get on the bandwagon.
If you didn’t get it from the previous section, I think Parker has a much better chance to succeed in the NFL than Landry. Tannehill is incredibly efficient when throwing him the ball and he’s a proven touchdown scorer. Plus, I expect him to take over the Alshon Jeffery role in Adam Gase’s offense.
Jordan Matthews is a guy, similar to Landry, who’s been polarizing in his first two years in the NFL. Unlike Landry, Matthews is a guy I fully support buying at this ADP. He’s played with terrible quarterbacks his first two seasons and has still put up incredible numbers. He’s one of just five players to get 150 receptions, 1,800 yards, and 16 touchdowns in his first two seasons. That’s quite the list.
Colston and Fitzgerald are also two guys who fit the mold of “big slot receiver” that Matthews currently embodies so the precedent is obviously there.
If, by some miracle, you’ve now decided to sell your Landry shares, here are some potential moves you could make.
By whatever trade calculator you use, Landry+mid 2nd for Jordan Matthews+Ameer Abdullah seems to be fair value. But I would take the Matthews side 100/100 times.
This is another trade I would do instantly, although I’m probably higher on Maclin than most.
Jarvis Landry is a good fantasy football player. I just don’t think he’s a great one. If you told me that 2015 was his best statistical season, I would not be surprised. Because of that, this is the time to sell.
You can tell Jackson where he’s wrong here: @JacksonSafon.