MFL 10: Baltimore Ravens ADP Shift

Baltimore Ravens Kamar Aiken

We are inside 100 days until the first game of the season and MFL 10 drafts are going full bore. Rotoviz has a great tool to watch the biggest risers and fallers in ADP. This helps you understand how soon you may need to pull the trigger on certain players.

As we head into July one major trend is very apparent, the Baltimore Ravens ADP as a whole is changing. There is a ton of potential to be had but are the MFL drafters getting it right? Let’s take a look.

Kamar Aiken – Riser

Kamar Aiken emerged a season ago as a legit fantasy option. He had 75 catches for 944 yards and 5 touchdowns. My biggest concern around Aiken is the situation that brought about the production spike. Steve Smith was the number one receiver in this offense and one of the main targets for quarterback Joe Flacco. After 7 games Smith went down with an injury that would sideline him for the season. When Aiken took over as the featured receiver his receptions per game doubled from three to six and his PPR points nearly did the same going from 8.36 to 15.66. His number also took a very similar step forward in the final six games without quarterback Joe Flacco. While I don’t want to take away from Aiken as I am buying him for 2016 I am proceeding with some caution.

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Wide Receiver guru Matt Harmon profiled Aiken in one his latest Reception Perception articles. I can’t help but assume he had something to do with the spike in where Aiken was drafted. As Harmon pointed out Aiken’s versatility to play both outside and in the slot for three wide receiver sets will be very helpful. With questions around the effectiveness of Steve Smith and the availability of rookie Breshad Perriman who we will get to also come into play. He is quickly approaching a top 100 draft pick which feels pretty fair for a player with Aiken’s potential. Marc Trestman is not shy about throwing the rock and a healthy Joe Flacco won’t hurt either.

Breshad Perriman – Faller

Many have been excited about the potential for Breshad Perriman to become an elite fantasy option for the Ravens since he was drafted a season ago. Perriman looks the part of an elite pass catcher. His 4.3 40 yard dash wowed many fantasy football players. I however have not been one who valued Perriman. I see a player that has issues displaying the full route tree, properly timing balls in the air and completing the catch when he gets his hands on the ball.

His falling ADP has little to do with me however as once again injury issues are becoming an issue for Perriman. There were reports that he had an ACL injury in practice that would cause him to miss another season. He missed all of his rookie season due to a PCL injury. There are reports now that he will be fine for the 2016 season but many are in doubt. Perriman and Aiken have flip-flopped in ADP throughout June. I’m probably avoiding Perriman without clarity, even if his ADP continues to fall. For bestball targets id rather draft players like Terrance Williams among others.

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Steve Smith – Faller

Like Perriman, Steve Smith has seen his ADP fall as well. His drop off has been much less drastic. Fantasy owners are starting to realize it likely won’t be easy for a 37 year old pass catcher to return from a torn achilles especially to full strength. It is very likely that Aiken owns the number one wide receiver role in this offense with Mike Wallace, Maxx Williams, Ben Watson, Kenneth Dixon and Javorius Allen joining Smith to soak up targets as complimentary pieces. Flacco has been consistently over 500 targets since 2011 and was on pace to break that total yet again last year, There should be opportunity for Smith but as a secondary option.

Javorius Allen – Faller

Unlike the rest of the Baltimore Raven ADP shifts Javorius Allen’s ADP drop makes little sense. The addition of Kenneth Dixon is something for fantasy owners to pay attention to but more for the potential impact on Justin Forsett and not Allen. There is a clear role for Allen as a complimentary piece to the starting running back. Allen showed some ability as a runner but excelled on passing downs. He had four or more catches in six of his last seven games including a 12 catch performance against the Dolphins. His ADP falling is not something that will make me mad. If he falls beyond a top 150 player off the board I will be happy to take him. He can be a top 30-ish running back that fits in around players like Karlos Williams, Duke Johnson, and Tevin Coleman.

For more Fantasy Football content check out Fake Pigskin’s Angle of Pursuit podcast on iTunes and Stitcher.

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