Fantasy Baseball Team Previews – Miami Marlins

Giancarlo Stanton

The Miami Marlins have to be the most exciting, un-inspiring team of all time. They have a ton of young talent in their line-up and potentially the best pitcher in the game, but you don’t get excited by when you talk about them and there is very little buzz to drafting most of them. They have three young outfielders, a young catcher and a speedy second baseman, but even in a poor NL East I have very little hope of them being much better than 0.500. Behind those young exciting options there just isn’t a lot of depth so they need all five of those hitters to play 150-plus games. On the pitching front they have two or three nice options but that is it, and if Fernandez is on the shelf for any time then it doesn’t leave a lot to be excited about.

They have definitely improved in the offseason adding Wei-Yin Chen as their number two and re-enforced that by bringing in Edwin Jackson at the back end of the rotation. They also added Chris Johnson who is projected to be a platoon guy with Justin Bour. Frankly, they lost no one of importance for real or for fantasy with Henderson Alvarez the biggest name out the door.

This is a team I want to be excited about but I just can’t be. They won’t play very good opposition so you likely won’t watch them that often, but they could have some solid fantasy options with many of them going at a value right now.

AL East

AL Central AL West NL East NL Central NL West

Baltimore

Chicago WS Houston Atlanta Chicago

Arizona

Boston

Cleveland Los Angeles A Miami Cincinnati Colorado

New York Y

Detroit

Oakland New York M Milwaukee

Los Angeles D

Tampa Bay

Kansas City Texas Philadelphia Pittsburgh

San Diego

Toronto Minnesota Seattle Washington St. Louis

San Francisco

 

Projected Starting Line-up

  1. Dee Gordon
  2. Marcell Ozuna
  3. Christian Yelich
  4. Giancarlo Stanton
  5. Justin Bour (vs RH), Chris Johnson (vs LH)
  6. Martin Prado
  7. JT Realmuto
  8. Adeiny Hechavarria

Giancarlo Stanton, OF

I covered Stanton and his abilities in my Fourth overall pick article last week. He’s good.

Dee Gordon, 2B

Can Dee Gordon steal 50+ bases in 2016?

Can Dee Gordon steal 60+ bases in 2016?

Gordon has taken full time opportunities the last two seasons, and quite literally ran with them. He stole 64 bases in 2014, with a further 58 in 2015. 2015 was arguably more impressive because he hit 0.333 thanks to a superb 0.383 BABIP. In those two seasons he has a combined 20 triples and 48 doubles but only six home runs, so there is next to no power here. I have him projected to hit around the 0.300 mark and steal 60 bases whilst scoring 85 runs, which is good enough to make him the sevond second baseman off the board. ADP wise he is going right at the end of the second round and if you have already locked up decent power in round one he is a decent gamble who could return first round value with his legs.

Christian Yelich, OF

At just 24, Yelich has plenty of upside but unfortunately he just doesn’t seem to excel at anything. In his three-year career he is a 0.290 hitter (he hit 0.300 in 2015) with a career high of nine homers and 21 steals. He should have more of an opportunity this year than previous to put up RBI numbers batting third, and with Stanton behind him he should still score plenty of runs. I have Yelich projected for a 10-homer, 23 steal season with a 0.290 batting average and 150 combined runs and RBI, which makes him a top 25 outfielder for me this season. Currently he is being drafted at outfielder 33 at around pick 115 which I think is nice value. However, with no major contribution in power and steals being available later you need to be in the right position roster wise to take advantage of the value.

Marcell Ozuna, OF

Fantasy owners will be hoping Ozuna can put it all together in 2016

Fantasy owners will be hoping Ozuna can put it all together in 2016

Another young hitter who just doesn’t seem to excel at any one thing. Ozuna managed to hit 23 bombs in 2014 but only managed 10 last year. His batting average has never been above 0.270 but also has never been below 0.259 (last season), so it isn’t as though you are taking a huge risk with him. The talk that he is going to bat second gives me optimism that he may get a couple more steals and could be encouraged to try and take a few more walks. I would actually be more encouraged if he batted third with Yelich in front to drive him in, but with Gordon at one he should still get plenty of opportunities. I have him projected for 17 homers with five steals at a 0.270 average with 130 combined runs and RBI putting him right around my 60th outfielder for both formats. He is currently going on average outside the top 270 so there is very little investment required for someone with 20 homer upside.

JT Realmuto, C

Realmuto had a decent first season hitting 10 homers and stealing eight bases with a 0.260 batting average and close to 100 combined runs and RBI. If he can get close to repeating that in 2016 then he will be right around the top 10-12 catchers in mixed leagues. Currently being drafted as the 16th catcher off the board means that he is a guy you can pick up in the last couple of rounds in roto, and can hopefully offer you some kind of bargain.

Any Other Business?

  • Martin Prado, 3B: Nothing special on offer here but Prado can hit 10 bombs and steal a couple of bases whilst hitting around 0.290, which, as a late round corner infielder, is decent value. In real deep leagues he is a fairly safe later round third base option. Going so late (after pick 300!) that you don’t have to pay much for this relative safety.
  • Justin Bour, 1B: There is plenty of power here with 18 homers projected but Bour is strictly a platoon option given that he is terrible against lefties. At the earliest is going as pick 226 but often much later. Is an interesting option at corner or utility but make sure you have someone for when he sits.

Projected Rotation

  1. Jose Fernandez
  2. Wei-Yin Chen
  3. Jarred Cosart
  4. Tom Koehler
  5. Edwin Jackson

Jose Fernandez

What innings restrictions are going to be placed on Fernandez and how will that hamper fantasy owners who take the risk this season?

What innings restrictions are going to be placed on Fernandez and how will that hamper fantasy owners who take the risk this season?

If you asked me to pick a pitcher who could be as dominant as Kershaw in 2016, then Fernandez would be one of the guys I would come up with (Sale and Scherzer being the others). However, the fact he has only pitched 115 combined innings between 2014 and 2015 concerns me greatly. In both seasons he has struck out 11 or more batters per nine and had an ERA under 2 with a FIP under 2.25 but the injury history is a massive concern. There was some issues late last year even after his return that just make it tough for me to take him in my top five pitchers. With a current ADP of 11th among pitchers at pick 36 on average I don’t have to invest that early but I likely do still have to take him as my number one late in the third round and that risk is an issue to me. If I pick him then I feel like I need two other pitchers just in case and taking three pitchers in the first five rounds is not something I am keen to do. I might try to pair him with another top 15 guy and then grab Hamels or Cueto as insurance later.

Wei-Yin Chen

Chen is someone I haven’t really looked at that closely this offseason, and that was a massive oversight from me. Chen has never been a dominant pitcher but two seasons of sub 3.60 in Baltimore and the AL East is really quite impressive. A move to pitcher friendly Miami and the fairly crappy NL East could see really nice results especially if he can get that WHIP down to 1.2 and get the strikeouts up around 7.5/9 with the extra opportunities then you could be looking at an absolute bargain at pick 200. This is someone I am going to be targeting later in drafts when looking for a fourth/fifth pitcher with upside.

Tom Koehler

I have Koehler just inside my top 100 so he is a streaming pitcher for me in shallower leagues. But in deeper leagues, he presents an arm who offers decent numbers at virtually no cost. Someone to put a ring around late in deep leagues drafts as he will likely not be considered by many.

Closer:

AJ Ramos

I liked Ramos early in the offseason and then the story of Carter Capps and a potential competition came out and I had grave concerns that they were going to give Capps the job. However, the news of Capps surgery has left Ramos un-challenged for the closer spot entering the season. Ramos has had two seasons of sub 2.50 ERA with 10+ Ks/9 and should be a decent closing option right around the top 15. He needs to keep the walks around or ideally below last year’s numbers but based on his career that could be an issue for him. A fairly safe option because I just don’t see where the competition is.

Prospect Potential

  • Kendry Flores, SP: Tough to know what the value is here. Had some success striking guys out whilst in the Giants system (highest level of A+) but struggles with his ERA at times. Came to Miami and had a 2.29 ERA across three levels for them but struck out 6.5/9 and didn’t do much better as a reliever for the Marlins in his 12.2 innings for them. At best a back end of the rotation guy for real life and probably a deep league streaming option for fantasy.

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