Fantasy Football: Chris Ivory to the Jacksonville Jaguars

Chris Ivory

The Jacksonville Jaguars have signed Chris Ivory to a five-year deal for $32.5 million. Chris Ivory hit career highs across the board a season ago. He was a guy that has battled injuries during his time with the Saints and Jets. He had 247 carries in 15 which helped him eclipse 1,000 yards and reach the end zone seven times. Yeldon had 182 carries in his rookie season, rushing for 740 yards. I expect the two to get close to 350 carries combined in 2016 in a full-blown timeshare. Yeldon likely gets more work between the 20’s and Ivory is getting more work inside the 20.

The Jaguars seemed very anti Yeldon when it came to red zone work a season ago. Yeldon got 43% of the work inside the 20 yard line which on the surface isn’t awful and puts him on par among lead running backs. However that number drops to 33% inside the 10 which is lower than Cam Newton, Jeremy Langford and Alfred Morris. Inside the 5 it gets even worse at 22%. Ivory on the other hand saw 85% of the work inside the 5 and 75% inside the 10 for the Jets a season ago.

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Their goal line touches should remain roughly the same though. Expect Ivory to have an opportunity to eclipse double-digit touchdowns but have reduced totals everywhere else. 130-150 carries and 500 plus yards feels fair for Ivory who should be a solid supplemental piece to Yeldon. There may be some concern around Ivory who has a 28% conversion rate each of the last two seasons but he has 13 touchdowns over those two season. If he can get his conversion rate 30% plus rate the touchdown total can approach double figures.

 

Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson

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The addition of Ivory is likely to impact the Jacksonville passing game as well. Blake Bortles passing touchdown totals took a tremendous leap from his first to second season going from 11 to 35. His 35 was good enough to finish 2015 in a tie with a handful of quarterbacks. To expect Bortles to reach that total in 2016 seems unrealistic. The Jaguars threw an impressive number of times in the red zone. Bortles was tied with Carson Palmer for the most passing attempts inside the 10 yard line with 45 attempts scoring 19 touchdowns on those attempts. You have to assume those attempts come down and thus the touchdown totals should follow suit.

Allen Robinson was second in the NFL with 15 targets inside the 10. He was able to catch 9 of those passes and 8 resulted in touchdowns. While I’m not saying Robinson’s production was a fluke or that massive regression is coming, there is some reason to believe Robinson scores less than 14 touchdowns in 2016. It likely hits the rest of the pass catchers as well.

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