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NBA DFS Playbook 2.19
We made it. It’s going to be alright, the NBA is back.
The all-star break can be a dark and depressing time for those of us who rely on the opportunity to play NBA DFS daily. I somehow found myself playing Soccer and NHL lineups, two sports that I’ve never tried before and probably won’t be rushing to lose money in again. But now dark times are behind us, and the light of the NBA once again shines bright with 14, yes FOURTEEN games to pick from tonight. It’s one of the biggest slates we’ll see all year, and it should provide for a wild night of basketball. You have tons to choose from, so lets take a look at some of the guys you should look to build around.
Stephen Curry $10,8000
Curry’s playing in the highest scoring game of the night, against a Portland team that may be able to avoid the typical Warrior blowout. All-Star guards always seem to bring the extra effort against Curry, and he always seems to respond by one upping them. Dame Lillard’s the type of player that will bring his all tonight, and I expect Curry to respond with a MVP performance.
Ish Smith $7,300
Revenge! The only problem here is that Ish realistically plays a revenge game against half the league, but still, the freshest one has to hurt the most. The matchup is great, with the Pelicans struggling to fill their backcourt voids with a bunch of guys on 10-day contracts. Ish should easily be able to make them question their poor decision to trade him away.
Emmanuel Mudiay $5,800
Mudiay was playing well before the break, and Mike Malone has proven he has no problem giving his young guard all of the minutes he can handle. To add to that, Denver traded Randy Foye away at the deadline, and Jameer Nelson is still out with a wrist injury. Mudiay will definitely see over 30 minutes, and in a matchup with one of the worst teams in the league at defending the point, he is a lock to return value.
DeMar DeRozan $7,700
The Bulls have really been struggling lately with the absence of Jimmy Butler in the lineup, and at this deflated price DeMar makes for an elite play. I’m slightly concerned with the blowout possibility, but the game is in Chicago so I’m betting the Bulls show up better than they did last night. There’s not a player on the Bulls with the ability to stop DeMar, if this game stays competitive, expect him to put up huge numbers.
Mario Hezonja $3,700
Value is going to be hard to find tonight, with the entire league coming off extended rest, we won’t see the normal amount of injuries holding guys out. One place to look at is teams who just made trades. Super Mario was already starting to play more minutes before the break, and we should this trend continue with Tobias Harris now gone. Orlando made some questionable trades at the deadline, and GM Rob Hennigan explained part of this was an effort to see more Mario on the court. The Magic seem to believe in him, so he’s worth a shot in GPPs.
Danilo Gallinari $6,900
Gallo gets the Kings, and at a position that lacks any type of depth tonight, that may be enough to justify playing him. Coming in with the second highest scoring total of the night, the Nuggets will be forced to pick up there pace, likely resulting in more shots for their go to scorer. Last I checked Rudy Gay isn’t the biggest fan of giving effort on defense, so Gallo will be able to get to the rim against a team that is never able to defend the paint. Gallo may be the chalkiest play of the night, which says a ton with all of the options we have.
Mirza Teletovic $4,000
Mirza is another one of those guys who gets the benefits of minutes opening up from trade. With Markieff gone, and the majority of the lineup injured, the Suns will need to find scoring from somewhere, and Mirza is a shooter who can get hot. The matchup with the Rockets is always ideal, as Mirza spends more time as a stretch four than he does as small forward. Keep a close eye on who the Suns look to start between Mirza and Jon Leuer, because if it is Mirza, he quickly becomes one of the best values on the slate.
DeMarcus Cousins $11,000
Two of my DFS rules to live by collide tonight:
- If Boogie is on the slate, he’s in my lineup.
- Play big men against the Nuggets.
As a bonus, with the lack of slate value and all of the options to choose from, I think his ownership may be lower than usual. Find a way to get him in tonight and I promise you won’t regret it.
Amar’e Stoudemire $4,200
Is Amar’e about to play 30 minutes tonight? On one end there’s no way his knees could hold up that long. But on the other, who else are the Heat going to play? Whiteside and Bosh have both been ruled out, and they got rid of Birdman at the deadline, which means they are left with only Haslem, and Amar’e. The Hawks remain one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, so if Amar’e finds himself with some extra minutes, we could see him easily exceed value.
Rudy Gobert $6,700
I really love playing big men against Boston’s undersized frontcourt. Gobert has found his form recently and he is still way underpriced for the production he’s been putting up. Kelly Olynyk is also expected to miss some time with a shoulder injury, which means Gobert will see a lot of Sullinger and possibly even some Tyler Zeller. Both of those guys give up either size, or strength in comparison to Rudy, and I expect Gobert will dominate whoever he’s matched up against.
Jahlil Okafor $6,400
The Pelicans remain the worst team in the league at defending the Center position. Beyond the numbers, there’s no chance a guy like Omar Asik has the skill set to guard Jahlil, especially if he gets his jumper going early. Nerleans Noel may miss tonight’s game, and if he does Jahlil should get a huge boost in usage and could challenge Gobert as tonight’s top center play.
Make sure follow me on twitter at @MLoveDFS to guarantee you’re staying up to date with all the NBA news. You can also give me your thought’s on tonight’s picks, and let me know which play helps you cash. Best of luck on tonight’s slate, go get those big checks!