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- My 2017 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
- MLB DFS: Targets for 4/21
- Week 4 Two Start Pitchers
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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl 50
Super Bowl 50 is finally here. Both the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos are in San Francisco getting their media obligations out of the way. The two-week layoff can knock teams out of their rhythm. It is always interesting to see how teams react to the time off. Let’s take a look at the important factors for this game and pick a winner.
Denver Broncos +6 vs Carolina Panthers
>Season Total 53-29-3
>Upset Alert 8-7
>Playoff Record 7-2-1
The Denver Broncos enter this game with an offense that has been less than stellar. Peyton Manning’s struggles have been well documented. They will need to get something going with the ground game if they are going to try and keep up with the Panthers and their over 30 points per game. Peyton will have to make a few throws that lead to touchdowns and not field goals. They will face a tough Panthers defense that will give them trouble for four quarters.
The Panthers defense will have Thomas Davis for this game but he is playing with a broken arm. He is one of their most important defensive players. Assuming he can stay on the field, he should still be able to make all the calls. If he is unable to finish the game for some reason it may be a serious problem for the Panthers. They will be without Jared Allen for this game who has been out since getting injured against the Seahawks. The Panthers defense is still loaded with talent and should be able to keep the Broncos offense in check. Expect a ton of Brandon McManus in this game, who is 66/1 to win Super Bowl MVP which isn’t as crazy as it may sound. There is also a prop that if both teams successfully kick more the 3.5 field goals (+105) which seems like a great wager.
The only thing that makes me think the Panthers don’t slaughter the Broncos is the incredible defense that Denver possesses. Their front seven has been incredible all season and have carried it through the playoffs. Von Miller was a one-man wrecking crew against the New England Patriots. They also have three really good cornerbacks that can allow their front four to create pressure. DeMarcus Ware was also really impressive in the AFC Championship. In the Super Bowl he will face Michael Oher who doesn’t strike fear in opposing defenders.
The Panthers will need to get the run game going to give Cam the time to run the offense. Jonathan Stewart has been solid all season and will need to run effectively this week. Ted Ginn, Devin Funchess, and Corey Brown have to get open and complete the catch when they get opportunities, something they have had issues with. Ginn has a 60 percent drop rate on the season.
A little fun bit about previous Super Bowls, the team wearing white jerseys has won 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls. The Broncos are 0-4 in Super Bowls when wearing orange jerseys. In this game the Panthers will be wearing their black uniforms and the Broncos will be wearing, wait for it, their white jerseys.
This feels like a field goal game either way. Carolina feels like a team of destiny that has won all but one game. The Broncos have also found ways to hang around in games all season with their defense and make a key kick or find the end zone late. The Broncos moneyline is a good gamble but for safety I’ll take the plus 6 especially since I think the Panthers win the game. Taking the under on 45 also feels pretty solid. Parlaying the Broncos +6 and the under is probably my favorite bet. You can also use a teaser to get the Broncos to +12 and the under on 51. Enjoy the big game!
Pick: Denver Broncos +6