DraftKings Week 16: Merry Christmas!

David Johnson

With the busy week ahead of us, I’m going to get right down to it and just give an abbreviated column, listing a few plays that I like at each position, along with a brief explanation for each. Hopefully amongst the hustle and the bustle you’ll find a little time to enjoy some DFS this weekend, but more importantly I hope you enjoy this time with your family and friends. Good luck and Merry Christmas!

As a quick aside, my plays will only be for the main slate, Sunday – Monday.

Quarterback

Tom Brady/$7,500 @ New York Jets

As is the case most weeks, spending up at quarterback probably isn’t necessary but you can’t ignore the top options either. Brady makes for an excellent contrarian play this week, as most people will likely either pay for Newton, Wilson, or Palmer in the same tier, or won’t spend up altogether. On paper the Jets are a tough opponent, but Brady usually plays well against them. The Pats still have plenty to play for, and this game projects to be close, with the visitors only favored by three.

Blake Bortels/$6,500 @ New Orleans

I like Bortles in all formats this week, as he provides a very safe floor (25 or more DK points in four straight), but also has 30-35 point upside. The Saints defense is hot garbage, as we all know, and this game has the highest over/under on the slate at 51 points.

Ryan Fitzpatrick/$5,200 vs. New England

Ol’ Fitzy certainly isn’t sexy, but he’s going to have to sling it this week in order to keep pace with “Touchdown Tommy”. The Jets figure to be behind for most of this game, and Fitzpatrick is more than capable of dropping back at chucking it 40 times to Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. He’s also in play in all formats, as he only needs around 15 points to hit value but has upside for much more.

Running Back

Adrian Peterson/$7,300 vs. Minnestoa

I always seem to get Peterson wrong, recommending him in what seem to be no-brainer spots only to see him tank, subsequently dragging my whole lineup down. By that logic you should probably stay away from him this week, but he has another great matchup and will probably be very low owned due to his recent struggles. He could be a huge difference maker in GPP’s.

David Johnson/$5,800 vs. Green Bay

Until the DK algorithms catch up to “the next Matt Forte”, DJ is basically a must-play. His price has only gone up $100 after his monster game against Philadelphia last Sunday night, and even though he’ll be very highly owned you simply can’t fade him at this price. Green Bay won’t be as easy to run against as Philly was, but they’re still middle of the pack against the run per DVOA.

James White/$4,700 @ New York Jets

The Patriots will probably skip the “ground and pound” against the Jets, knowing it’s futile against that stout front seven, which should mean more work for White who has filled the Dion Lewis role quite well. He should see plenty of check down’s from Brady, and has legit 10-catch upside in this matchup.

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Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown/$9,300 @ Baltimore

Brown, a.k.a. the best receiver in the game, is pretty much a must-play in cash games. Yes, the price is through the roof, but he’s being targeted an unreal amount and simply can’t be covered right now – especially by anyone on the Ravens. As I heard Davis Mattek say on a podcast a few weeks ago, “he’s basically a free 24 points each week”.

Eric Decker/$6,500 vs. New England

You can probably already tell this Pats/Jets game is one of my favorites to target on this slate. While I don’t mind Marshall is this one either, I have a hunch he’ll be priority one for the Patriots defense, leaving Decker to wreak havoc on a mediocre secondary. He has a touchdown in all but three games, and only has two games under 50 yards receiving.

Kamar Aiken/$5,400 vs. Pittsburgh

Aiken has become a fairly safe play, as he’s basically the entire Baltimore passing game. Since week 8, he’s caught five or more passes in every game, and that doesn’t seem to change no matter who’s under center. Baltimore will undoubtedly be playing from behind in this one, and will be facing a defense that funnels action to the pass.

Tight End

Julius Thomas/$5,100 @ Jacksonville

Thomas has been on quite the streak since returning fully from injury, and seems to have become a favorite of Bortles. The two have hooked up five or more times in all games but one since week 11, and that includes four touchdowns. Fortunately the Saints defense is all about equality and spreads out their suckiness to the tight end position, too, ranking dead last against the position per DVOA.

Gary Barnidge/$4,700 @ Cleveland

Barnidge will see a lot of Eric Berry this week, which is concerning, but his amount of targets should give him a fairly safe floor. And even with the tough matchup, do to his size and athleticism he always has a good chance to find pay dirt. Like last week, most will stay away due to the matchup, making him a strong tournament play.

Defense

Kansas City/$4,200 vs Cleveland

The Chiefs will be the chalk defense this week, and it’s hard to ignore them as they’re currently a 12-point home favorite. Manziel is mistake prone, and that plays right into the teeth of the Chiefs defense.

Buffalo/$3,200 vs Dallas

With everyone on Kansas City or Seattle, Buffalo is my contrarian play, and comes in at a cool $1000 cheaper. The Bills are a current five-point home favorite in a game with a low over/under of 43 points. They’ll be up against Matt Cassell or Kellen Moore. Enough said.

 

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