Week 14 FanDuel Top Shelf & Bargain Bin Plays

Seahawks Russell Wilson

This is the time of year a lot of season-long players turn their attention to DFS. For the hardcore DFS players there is still a lot of football left in the 2015 NFL season. We should have prepared ourselves for a crazy week of football after the Thursday night game in Detroit ended with a 61-yard Hail Mary pass from Aaron Rodgers to Richard Rogers.

The madness continued on Sunday as we witnessed two overtime thrillers in New York and Chicago. The Bears lost a heart-breaker in OT on a big pass play from Blaine Gabbert to Torey Smith resulting in a 71-yard touchdown. The Jets rallied from a 20-10 4th quarter deficit led by beardless Harvard grad Ryan Fitzpatrick to force overtime. The Giants prevailed in OT after Josh Brown missed a 48-yard field goal attempt with 6:33 left in the extra session. Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson all had outstanding performances  leading their respective teams to victories. They finished as the top four scoring fantasy quarterbacks and hopefully you took my advice last week and played all four in your cash and GPP lineups. Without further ado here are my Week 14 FanDuel Top Shelf and Bargain Bin Plays.

Top Shelf Picks

Quarterback

Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks $8500

at Baltimore Ravens

Russell Wilson has been on fire the past three weeks which coincides with Thomas Rawls taking over as the Seahawks workhorse running back. Over the past three games, Wilson has thrown for 879 yards, 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions, while adding another score on the ground. Wilson is making much better decisions with the football and has less pressure on his shoulders with a strong ground game led by rookie Thomas Rawls. Wilson gets a cupcake matchup in Week 14 versus the Baltimore Ravens porous secondary. Expect another strong performance from Wilson against a Ravens defense that ranks 26th in Football Outsiders pass DVOA. Wilson also seems to be very comfortable with his pass-catching options Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, and Jermaine Kearse. He’s averaging 31.5 points on FanDuel over the past three weeks and is an automatic play in cash games and high-upside GPP play.

Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers $9200

vs Atlanta Falcons

Cam Newton continued to ball out in Week 13 and stay at the top of the MVP list. I recommended Cam last week and he was my poster boy proving to be worthy of the spotlight. Newton finished his dream matchup versus the Saints with 331 yards passing, five touchdowns, and one interception. Hell, he might have had seven touchdowns if Tedd Ginn could catch the football! Regardless, it was another amazing performance from Superman and if you played him on FanDuel you were rewarded with the highest scoring quarterback with 37.14 points. In Week 14 Cam gets to come home and face a division rival Atlanta Falcons team that ranks 22nd in Football Outsiders pass DVOA. The matchup is prime and Newton has been stellar at home tossing multiple touchdowns in five out of six contests at Bank of America Stadium. You have to pay up for Cam but he’s got one of the highest floors and ceilings at the quarterback position with his dual-threat capability.

Bargain Bin Plays

Jameis Winston- Tampa Bay Buccaneers $7800

vs New Orleans Saints

I’ve professed my undying love for Jameis Winston on more than one occasion this season and for good reason. Winston is maturing rapidly and is the complete package at quarterback with his rare combination of athleticism, skill-set, and moxie under pressure. Digging deeper the numbers support my bold claim on Winston. According to Pro Football Reference, Winston has been nearly perfect in the red zone this season. He has thrown 12 touchdowns inside the red zone and has yet to be intercepted. As an added bonus for his fantasy owners Winston has added five red zone scores on the ground. In total, he’s completed 24 of 57 passes for 185 yards when inside the 20.  Winston has a pretty big sample size considering how many trips he’s had to the red zone this season. His 57 passes are the ninth-most of any quarterback in the NFL.  Winston is just scratching the surface in his rookie season but is on pace to throw for 3,849 yards, which would be the second-most in a single season in Bucs franchise history. In addition Winston is projected to throw 23 touchdowns, which would be the fourth-most in team history.

If I haven’t sold you on Winston yet well the matchup this week versus the New Orleans Saints will! The Saints rank 32nd overall (dead last) in Football Outsiders pass DVOA. This heated NFC South divisional matchup has the highest over/under of the week 14 slate of games at 50.5 points. It would be wise to target as many players from this game as possible starting with a Winston-Evans or Winston-Jackson stack.

Tyrod Taylor - Buffalo Bills $7500

at Philadelphia Eagles

TyGod as he has been referred to many on Twitter is playing like a God for the Bills. Taylor came on strong out of the gate tossing multiple scores in two of the first three weeks of the season. He cooled off considerably in Weeks 4-11 while dealing with an AC joint injury but has reemerged the past couple weeks. Over the Bills last two games, Taylor has thrown for 501 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. As a bonus he’s rushed for 74 yards on the ground and had an acrobatic diving touchdown plunge last week against the Texans.

This week Taylor faces an Eagles defense that has been shredded lately by opposing quarterbacks. Philadelphia has surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in five consecutive games, including at least three scores through the air in four of those contests. Combine this with an already fast-paced Eagles offense and the third-highest projected over/under of the week at 47 points, you have all the ingredients necessary for another monster week for Tyrod Taylor.

Top Shelf Picks

Running Back

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Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers $8000

vs New Orleans Saints

I’ll start by saying that Doug Martin isn’t on my Christmas card list but I’m here to give you the best weekly plays at their respective positions. If you haven’t noticed yet, Muscle Hampster is playing the best football of his career while in a contract year. Make no mistake, he’s highly motivated for a big payday this off-season in Free agency but regardless he’s backing it up on the field. Martin is 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards (1,133) and rushing yards per game (94.4) He’s also averaging a career-best 5.0 yards per carry which is very impressive given all the questions the Bucs had with their offensive line. This Sunday Martin gets a dream matchup at home versus the New Orleans Saints. It’s no secret how bad the Saints defense has been this year, currently 32nd and 27th on Football Outsiders pass and rush DVOA rankings. Opposing running backs have feasted on the Saints and especially good pass-catching backs. The Saints have allowed an average of 261 all-purpose yards a game to opposing backs over their last three games. Martin is going to have a field-day and should have no problem producing elite numbers while out producing more expensive options like Adrian Peterson and Devonta Freeman.

LeSean McCoy- Buffalo Bills $7900

at Philadelphia Eagles

LeSean McCoy returns to South Philly in Week 14 and the narrative for a revenge game takes center stage. Let’s just say it was a messy divorce between McCoy and Kelly this past off-season and I’m sure McCoy will have some extra motivation to steamroll the Eagles. Shady has been hot lately rushing for 100 yards or more in three of his past five games. He’s benefiting from Tyrod Taylor’s ability to beat opposing secondaries with his arm and also the threat of TyGod doing damage with his legs.  As I touched on previously with Taylor, this game will most likely be an up-tempo, high-scoring affair which should benefit Shady. The Eagles are better versus the pass than the rush and currently rank 20th on Football Outsiders rush DVOA. This is a prime matchup to target for stacking options. I would highly recommend a Taylor-McCoy stack or even possibly a Taylor-Watkins-McCoy triple-stack. This stack would assure you of most if not all exposure to the Bills 24.25 projected team total in this game.

Jonathan Stewart- Carolina Panthers $7200

vs Atlanta Falcons

Jonathan Stewart has been one of the most consistent running backs in fantasy this season. In DFS terms he’s been a chalky play most weeks but is a lot safer option at his position since he possesses a nice floor of 20-plus carries a week. More often than not JStew is going to produce in the Panthers high-octane offense given the high-volume. The knock on Stewart has been his lack of touchdown upside but that’s actually not the case this season. Actually since Week 7 no running back has more touches inside their opponent’s 10 yard line than JStew, who has 13. I’m all in on JStew in Week 14 and you should be too since he’s going up against a Falcons defense that ranks 27th in rush DVOA and has allowed 4.9 yards per touch to opposing backs. Stewart offers elite level production at mid-level pricing with a FanDuel salary of $7200.

Bargain Bin Plays

Shaun Draughn- San Francisco 49ers $6500

Shaun  Draughn

at Cleveland Browns

I can’t believe what I’m doing! I’m recommending Shaun Draughn and I feel good about it! If you’re looking for a cheap GPP pivot from chalkier options like David Johnson then Shaun Draughn is your guy. I don’t want to beat a dead horse but similar to JStew Draughn is getting a lot of work. Since taking over the reins from Carlos Hyde in Week 9 Draughn has accounted for 44.6 percent of his team touches, the second highest in the league, and has averaged 6.8 targets per game which is tops among all backs. He comes with a low-floor as far as his touchdown potential but makes up for it with his involvement in the passing game. Draughn has averaged six receptions and 41 yards receiving a game over his past four starts.

The 49ers have shown some signs of life recently with Blaine Gabbert under center which should increase Draughn’s scoring opportunities moving forward. In Week 14 Draughn gets every running back’s dream matchup this year versus the Browns in the Dawg Pound. The Browns defense ranks 29th in rush DVOA on Football Outsiders and has allowed 5.6 yards per touch to opposing backs this year. It’s all about the volume when it comes to Draughn and the discounted price tag of $6500 makes him one of the top values at his position in Week 14.

T.J. Yeldon- Jacksonville Jaguars $6400

vs Indianapolis Colts

T.J. Yeldon has the same perceived warts as Jonathan Stewart due to his lack of involvement in the red zone. In this case we have the numbers to back it up with only seven carries inside the 5-yard line and only one red zone touchdown on the season for Yeldon until last Sunday. I’m really not sure what changed or if the Jags coaching brass have finally come to their senses that Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson aren’t their best options at the goal line. Whatever the reason it’s a boom to Yeldon’s value if he’s finally getting the majority of the work in the red zone.

Yeldon is coming off his best game as a pass-catcher with four receptions for 79 yards against the Titans. In Week 14 T.J. gets to face an Indianapolis Colts team that is currently 24th versus the run, allowing 118.7 yards per game. Yeldon recorded his first career 100-yard rushing performance against this same Colts team back in Week 4. You can go cheap at running back on FanDuel this week and pair Yeldon with Draughn for only $12,900. This allows you the opportunity to beef up the rest of your skill positions and start at least two stud wideouts like OBJ and A.J. Green.

FantasyDraft2

Top Shelf Picks

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr.- $9300

at Miami Dolphins (MNF)

I was high on Odell Beckham Jr. last week and he came through big for me with six receptions on 11 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown. Beckham has topped 100 yards in five straight games while scoring six touchdowns in those contests. Over those five contests OBJ has averaged 13 targets and seven catches a game. This week the Giants face a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in pass DVOA on Football Outsiders. You can trust OBJ in your cash and GPP lineups and can expect another monster performance from one of the NFL’s most talented and exciting players to watch.

A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals $8500

vs Pittsburgh Steelers

A.J. Green has been hot lately with 11 receptions, 189 yards receiving, and three touchdowns over his past two games. While some of the increased targets may be a result of Tyler Eifert’s absence from the starting lineup I’m expecting Green to remain Andy Dalton’s preferred pass-catching option. In Week 14 A.J. Green gets a home matchup versus AFC North rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers. Green had one of his best performances back in Week 8 versus the Steelers registering a season-high 17 targets and 11 receptions for 118 yards and a score. Digging deeper I found that history is on Green’s side when facing the Steelers on Sunday. Over the last five meeting with the Steelers Green has had the following number of targets: 15, 18, 15, 13, and 17. Green has averaged a whopping 15 targets a game in those matchups so I expect the Bengals to make him a focal point of their game plan again this week. I’d consider Green a nice pivot option from higher priced wideouts on FanDuel like DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown.

Mike Evans - Tampa Bay Buccaneers $8000

vs New Orleans Saints

Mike Evans continues to frustrate his season-long and DFS owners with mediocre play and most alarming his lack of touchdowns. While this is a concern in both cases he’s dealt with his fair share of injuries and the lack of a competent receiver opposite the second-year stud. The good news is that Vincent Jackson is back and Evans has scored two of his three touchdowns this season over the past three weeks. The return of Austin Seferian-Jenkins also helps draw attention away from Evans. All signs point to a Mike Evans explosion game on the horizon. What better week for fireworks in Tampa Bay then in Week 14 against the New Orleans Saints? As I mentioned earlier the Saints rank 32nd overall in Football Outsiders pass DVOA. They’ve allowed a whopping NFL-worst 35 receiving scores. Mike Evans will present a matchup nightmare for the Saints which could result in a top-five fantasy performance. If you’re looking for stacking options I’d recommend pairing Winston with Evans at an affordable cost of $15,800.

Bargain Bin Plays

Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks $6800

at Baltimore Ravens

Doug Baldwin has been blowing up box scores on the regular the past month. He has five touchdowns over the past two weeks and six total over his past four contests. It’s becoming apparent that Baldwin is for real and isn’t a “Flash In The Pan” as our segment on Angle of Pursuit podcast backs up. Over his past two games Baldwin has 11 receptions for 239 yards, and five touchdowns! It definitely helps that Russell Wilson is playing at an elite level and the loss of Jimmy Graham has opened up the middle of the field. Fire up Baldwin in Week 14 to gain exposure to the juicy matchup he draws against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens defense ranks 26th in Football Outsiders pass DVOA. Baldwin presents one of the best bargains at wide receiver on FanDuel at $6800. His price tag hasn’t caught up with his level of play over the past few weeks so be sure to take full advantage.

Dorial Green-Beckham - Tennessee Titans $5100

at New York Jets

Don’t look now but Dorial Green-Beckham has started to emerge. The highly prized Titans rookie wide out is coming off his best pro performance. DGB caught five passes on for 116 yards and scored on a 47-yard play where he displayed his physicality and his amazing run after catch ability. DGB possesses a very special size-speed combination and is gaining the trust of his coaches. He will be leaned on more and more and with a maturing Marcus Mariota under center. DGB could make some serious noise to close out the season. In Week 14 the Titans travel to East Rutherford to face the Jets who have allowed 22 scores to opposing wide outs this season. I like DGB even more if Darrelle Revis is out but even if he does play he’s beatable and may only play limited snaps. The Titans will need to keep the pace up in this game and game-flow could lead to a lot of pass attempts for Mariota in comeback mode.

Top Shelf Pick

Tight End

Delanie Walker - Tennessee Titans $6100

at New York Jets

With Gronk still on the shelf there’s Greg Olsen and then there’s everyone else at the tight end position. When targeting a tight end in DFS I’m looking for consistent targets and involvement in the passing game. Walker fits that description with 30 targets over his last three games while hauling 20 passes for 292 yards and a touchdown. Mariota will continue to lean heavily on Walker on the road versus the New York Jets this week. Walker should find plenty of room over the middle of the field with an emerging Dorial Green-Beckham stretching the field on the outside. Walker is just about as safe as Olsen and can be had at a major discount at $6100 on FanDuel.

Bargain Bin Play

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers $5500

vs New Orleans Saints

I touched on the Buc-Saints matchup earlier as a game to target in DFS due to the extremely high over/under at 50.5 points. I’m also optimistic about ASJ’s prospects since he’s likely to get more work in his second week returning to the starting lineup. Last week ASJ played in 21 of 71 plays and in limited action but was targeted six times by Winston catching three balls for 31 yards. He also dropped a potential touchdown catch in the end zone so his day could have looked a lot better on paper. This week Seferian-Jenkins faces the most generous defense to opposing tight ends in the league. The Saints have given up the most points in the league to opposing tight ends and an NFL-leading 10 touchdowns to the position. They’ve given up an NFL-worst 73 receptions for a whopping 989 yards to opposing tight ends this season. If you want to save money at the tight end position look no further than ASJ at his bottom of the barrel salary of $5500 on FanDuel.

Defenses To Target

Kansas City Chiefs $4800

vs San Diego Chargers

Chicago Bears $4500

vs Washington Redskins

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