DraftKings Week 14: All the Bucs

Jim Mone - Associated Press

For quite some time now, it’s made wise fiscal sense to attack the Saints. All year long their defense has been horrible, but ever since Eli ripped them apart for five touchdowns in week 8 they’ve since taken on a new meaning to the word “sieve”. This week the Bucs get another shot at their division rivals, this time at home, and Vegas seems to think this game will be a barn burner as it currently sits at a 50-point over/under, good for the highest on the slate (*commences to rub hands together and salivate uncontrollably*).

Quarterback Jameis Winston will undoubtedly be a popular option across all formats, and is a steal at just $5,500. Winston completed 14 of 21 passes for 207 yards and two touchdowns (one rushing) in the first matchup back in week 2, and while he only totaled 19.58 DK points, it’s important to remember that it was his second career start and it came on the road. This time he’ll be 12 games more seasoned and he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium.

When Winston drops back to pass he will have his favorite target to throw to, Mike Evans, who missed the first matchup due to injury. Evans has reeled off five straight games with at least four catches and has a touchdown or 100 yards receiving in four of those five games. It’s likely that he’ll draw some Delvin Breaux in coverage, but Evans’ athleticism combined with the four inches and 40 lbs. he’ll have on Breaux should make for a long afternoon for the breakout cornerback. At $7,200 Evans is probably better suited for tournaments, but with the expected point total being so high for this game I don’t hate him as a cash game play, assuming he does indeed find himself on the end of five or six Winston passes.

Here’s who else I’ll be targeting this week…

Quarterback

Cash

Andy Dalton/$6,600 vs. Pittsburgh

The last time Cincinnati faced off against Pittsburgh, Dalton was a popular DFS selection and he underwhelmed as he finished with only 11.64 DK points. This Sunday, at Paul Brown Stadium, the tables should be turned. The Steelers secondary, though they’ve improved somewhat, can still be exploited. Tight end Tyler Eifert is still questionable, but is expected to make it back for this game, only increasing the case for Dalton in week 14.

Ryan Fitzpatrick/$5,400 vs. Tennessee

With the exception of a complete dud against Oakland in week 8, “Fitzmagic” has been “Fitz$$$$” all year long. He’s developed quite the rapport with his two star receivers, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, and he seems to be able to find them at will. This game opens with one of the lower over/under’s on the slate (43 1/2) so I don’t think we’ll see the monster numbers he’s posted the past two weeks, but he’s a strong bet to throw for a couple of scores. On the season, he’s thrown two or more touchdowns in every game but three.

Other Considerations: Blake Bortles/$6,000 vs. Indianapolis, Tyrod Taylor/$5,400

GPP

Ryan Tannehill/$ 5,200 vs. New York Giants

In most other weeks I wouldn’t be excited about Tannehill because I think his upside is limited, but if there ever was a game for him to explode, it’s against New York. The Giants rank 26th against the pass per DVOA and are actually dead last in terms of passing yards per game.

Running Back

Cash

Doug Martin/$6,200 vs. New Orleans

Martin’s is starting to get priced out of cash games for me due to his inconsistencies, but you can’t ignore him in this matchup. The only caution I’d offer in terms of Martin and the Bucs offense in general, is to limit your exposure – especially in cash games. In the odd event that the offense doesn’t thrive, you don’t want to have two or three of their players weighing your lineup down. For example, if you decide to roster Winston, don’t roster Martin – quarterbacks and running backs often have a negative correlation.

LeSean McCoy/$6,100 @ Philadelphia

McCoy will be the chalkiest of the chalky plays this week, as his price is still depressed for his recent level of production. Oh, yeah, and there’s the tiny little matter of him making his return to Philadelphia after being shipped out of town in the offseason. If there was ever #NarrativeStreet, this is it. But if that’s not enough for you and you’d like to get a little more scientific, the game should be fairly high scoring (47-point over/under) and the Eagles rank 20th against the run per DVOA. McCoy’s involvement in the passing game gives him a fairly safe floor, and at $6,100 you only need about 18 points from him to pay off the price tag.

Shaun Draughn/$4,800 @ Cleveland

One of the underrated aspects of fantasy sports is the fact that we don’t care how a player scores his points. The sexiness in which a player performs (though fun to watch) means absolutely nothing to degenerates like us. In that vein, Draughn is the fantasy football poster boy. Nothing he does is flashy or special, but he plays almost all of the running back snaps for his team and is excellent in the passing game. The bottom line is there’s few (if any) running backs around his price point guaranteed to get 18-20 touches a game.

Other Considerations: Jonathan Stewert/$5,800 vs. Atlanta, TJ Yeldon/$4,900 vs. Indianapolis

GPP

Devonta Freeman/$7,700 @ Carolina

Freeman, though he ended up with a respectable 20.3 DK points, underwhelmed in his return from his one game absence. What stood out, though, was his 10 receptions for 56 yards. The Falcons offense is a mess right now, and I’d steer clear from any of them in cash for the foreseeable future, but Freeman is an excellent tournament option this week because Julio Jones will be shadowed by stud corner Josh Norman. This should continue to force the offense to flow through Freeman, and I expect him to be amongst the team lead in receptions again.

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Wide Receiver

Cash

AJ Green/$7,900 vs. Pittsburgh

Green, despite a somewhat up and down year, is still playing at a very high level. The up and down nature of his season, though, has kept his price from reaching upper echelon levels like some of his peers at the position. The last time he saw Pittsburgh he went for 11/118/1, and he should yet again be able to feast on a poor Pittsburgh secondary in a game that should be fast paced with plenty of points.

Alshon Jeffery/$6,900 vs. Washington

Jeffery, and the entire Chicago offense outside of Matt Forte, let the DFS community down last week in what should’ve been a cake walk against San Francisco. Jeffery managed to only catch four passes, but what we should be focused on are his team-leading 12 targets. His price has not changed from a week ago, and this week he’s presented with yet another plus matchup in the Washington secondary.

Allen Hurns/$5,000 vs. Indianapolis

The last time Jacksonville saw Indianapolis, and breakout star receiver, Allen Robinson (who I still like this week, by the way), was held to 80 yards on four catches by Vontae Davis, Hurns went bonkers for 11/116/1. Robinson shouldn’t be held down as much this time around so it’s hard to see Hurns seeing the same amount of targets, but there’s plenty of love to go around in the Jacksonville passing game and he should see enough to more than pay off his meager price tag.

Other Considerations: Antonio Brown/$8,900 @ Cincinnati, Jarvis Landry/$6,300 vs. NYG, Danny Amendola/$5,200 @ Houston

GPP

Sammy Watkins/$6,100 @ Philadelphia

Watkins has posted back to back terrific outings, but still lands in tournament territory for me due to the fact his floor is four or five DK points. With a 47-point over/under and the Eagles only favored by a point, Buffalo is projected to score well and “Tygod” is beginning to look Watkins way more and more – especially on deep throws.

Tight End

Cash

Jordan Reed/$5,100 @ Chicago

Reed only managed three catches last week, but he continued his trend of being one of Kirk Cousins’ favorite targets as he saw eight on the day. Chicago ranks 24th against tight ends per DVOA and is giving up an average of 6.7 targets per game to the position. The Chicago secondary has played much better over the second half of the season, but that’s thanks mostly to their play on the outside. Inside the still lack the size and athleticism to matchup with someone like Reed.

Gary Barnidge/$5,000 vs. San Francisco

“Barnkowski” is listed as questionable this week, but all signs point to him suiting up. His upside is limited due to the overall nature of the Browns offense, but he seeing a healthy amount of targets each week. The team will now have Johnny Manziel under center which should give the offense a little more spark, and he should be able to find Barnidge with ease against a San Francisco defense that’s allowing 7.6 targets per game to the position.

GPP

Tyler Eifert/$5,600 vs. Pittsburgh

Eifert is expected to return from injury this week, and his absence last week should cause him to fly under the radar. Not knowing exactly how he’ll bounce back from this injury makes him a tournament-only option for me, but he should resume his role in the offense and be a force in the red zone.

Defense

Carolina/$3,400 vs. Atlanta

I’m not crazy about the 47-point over under in this game, but Carolina is favorited by six points which leads me to believe they should be operating with a lead for most of this game and can get after Matt Ryan. I also really like that their best offensive player will essentially be taken away by Josh Norman, forcing Ryan to have to rely on sub-optimal players (outside of Freeman, of course) to move the ball.

New York Jets/$3,200 vs. Tennessee

The Jets defense probably isn’t quite as elite as everyone thinks, but they’re still very good. Marcus Mariota is an exciting player, but he’s still a rookie and should be forced into several ill-advised throws. The Titans can’t run the ball and lack any real threat outside at wide receiver, which will limit Mariota’s options on offense to Delanie Walker and make the Jets’ job very easy on defense.

 

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