DraftKings Week 13: “Da Bears”

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It’s not all that often we can get excited about the Bears, but a week 13 home date against the 49ers has provided us an opportunity to do just that. And, being the bargain hunters that we are, targeting the Bears offense (and defense, for that matter) makes excellent fiscal sense as most of them are trading at a discount, thus freeing up funds to splurge on other studs for our lineups.

The biggest value amongst Chicago’s offensive options (cover your ears, darling) is non other than “Smokin'” Jay Cutler. Cutler, who comes in at $5,100 – just north of the quarterback minimum, has been excellent under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Adam Gase. In fact, after missing week 3 against Seattle he has totaled 12 touchdowns (13 total) to just four interceptions. Obviously those aren’t earth-shattering numbers, but it’s the efficiency – something we don’t usually see from Cutler – that gives us hope in him and this offense going forward. At that price he becomes an excellent cash game play, needing just 15 points to pay off his price tag.

Another excellent play is Cutler’s go-to target, Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery returned from groin and shoulder injuries last Thursday night against Green Bay and recorded nine catches on 11 targets for 90 yards. It’s been an up and down year for Jeffery due to the injuries, but those injuries have actually worked in the favor of DFS players because it’s kept his price depressed for most of the year. At $6,900, he comes in at the 13th highest priced receiver, which, for a player of his caliber, is still far too low and should be exploited. The combo of Cutler and Jeffery should have a field day against San Francisco’s 32nd ranked pass defense.

Chicago’s backfield is perhaps the only part of the offense I don’t like for cash games. Matt Forte‘s hefty price tag of $6,900 is not reflective of his “starter in name only” role, and Langford, while still with a reasonable price tag of $5,300, won’t see the amount of touches I generally prefer for my cash game running backs. However, given the cupcake matchup I wouldn’t mind either in tournaments, banking that one of them gets multiple chances near the goal line.

Let’s look at the other options for week 13…

Quarterback

Cash

Tom Brady/$8,000 vs. Philadelphia

Brady, as usual, is the highest priced quarterback on the slate. And while I’m not sure he’s necessary this week, you can’t ignore the matchup against a horrible Philadelphia secondary. He’s likely going to be Gronk-less this week which means he’s going to have to be even more vintage Brady and continue to do more with less, but I won’t bet against him – especially in this matchup. If you do pay up for him, you can feel confident in his very high floor.

Andy Dalton/$6,400 @ Cleveland

Given who he has around him in regards to price this week, Dalton might actually make for a decent contrarian option in tournaments, but I’m fine rolling him out in cash this week, too. Cleveland ranks 29th against the pass in Football Outsiders DVOA, and surrendered 234 yards and three touchdowns to the “Red Rocket” back in week 9. Vegas predicts this will be a relatively low scoring game with a 43-point over/under, and has the Bengals favorited by seven points, but Dalton is likely going to be the reason this game isn’t that close. We’ve seen his price tag drop some now that he’s cooled off a bit, but that makes him an even stronger play as he just needs around 20 points to pay off his price tag.

Marcus Mariota/$5,500 vs. Jacksonville

I recommended Mariota last week, and while the box score didn’t look stellar with the two interceptions, the final tally of 21 DK points shouldn’t have disappointed those who rostered him. I’m going right back to well again this week in cash games, as he gets the 30th ranked pass defense (per DVOA) in Jacksonville. Two weeks ago Jacksonville did a decent job limiting the rookie signal caller, limiting him to no touchdowns through the air, but he did rush for his first score of the season and through for 230 yards. I don’t think they’ll be able to hold him down as much this week.

Other Considerations: Cam Newton/$7,400 @ New Orleans, Ryan Tannehill/$5,300 vs. Baltimore

GPP

Matt Hasselbeck/$5,300 @ Pittsburgh

Hasselbeck has been very solid in relief of Andrew Luck, compiling seven touchdowns to just two interceptions in his four starts. This week he’ll face a Pittsburgh secondary that has been shredded at almost every outset, and it should be a high scoring affair as Vegas has it pegged at a 48-point over/under, tied for the highest on the slate with Philadelphia/New England.

Running Back

Cash

Doug Martin/$5,900 vs. Atlanta

Martin has been tough to predict this year, with a few massive performances mixed in with some subpar, head-scratchers. However, he has 15-plus touches in all but three games so far, and is averaging almost 100 yards per game. On those figures we can hang our hats on in week 13, as Tampa Bay should lean on their lead runner in a contest against a middle-of-the-road run defense in Atlanta.

Deangelo Williams/$5,600 vs. Indianapolis

Williams carried the ball eight times for 29 yards and a touchdown last week against Seattle, and even if he hadn’t scored he still would’ve hit his value threshold thanks to his seven catches for 88 yards. The point I’m trying to make is Williams is clearly a workhorse in this offense and can accumulate points even if one part of his game isn’t working. I’ve already touched on how this game is likely to be high scoring, and Williams will be a huge part of it.

Jonathan Stewart/$5,300 @ New Orleans

This one’s pretty simple: Stewart hasn’t received less than 20 carries in a game since week 4, has 100 yards or a touchdown in five of those seven games, and is facing a New Orleans team ranked 26th in DVOA run defense. The lack of goal line work concerns me some as that usually need to be a staple of cash game running backs, but Carolina is a big favorite in this one (-7) and should be operating with a lead for most of the game, allowing Stewart to at least amass 100 yards-plus.

Other Considerations: C.J. Anderson/$3,500 @ San Diego, David Johnson/$3,400 @ St. Louis

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GPP

Shaun Draughn/$4,000 @ Chicago

Draughn, by no means, is a sexy play. But, he’s dominating the running back touches in the San Francisco backfield and rarely leaves the field. He’s gotten 20 touches in each of his three starts, and will be the focal point in an offense that will likely be playing from behind. Chicago is 31st against the run per DVOA.

Wide Receiver

Cash

Julio Jones/$9,000 @ Tampa Bay

Jones, along with Deandre Hopkins, laid an egg in week 12 and let down a lot of fantasy players. For that reason both warrant extra considerations in tournaments as they’re ownership will dip, but I really like both for cash this week, too. Julio, in particular gets an excellent bounce back matchup with Tampa Bay, who he torched for 12/162/1 back in week 8. It sounds as if Devonta Freeman will return this week, but will likely be somewhat limited as he gets eased back into action. That will leave Jones to shoulder most of the load on offense.

Eric Decker/$6,300 @ New York Giants

For the money (and for any receiver at any price, really) it’s hard to find someone as consistent as Decker. It’s not sexy and he certainly doesn’t have the upside of some of the higher priced receivers, but he just flat-out gets it done week in and week out. Certainly his yardage totals don’t jump out at you, at that’s what limits his ceiling, but you have to love his touchdown potential as he’s found pay dirt in every game except two. The matchup with Giants is a good one, as Vegas predicts this will be a somewhat high scoring contest with a 45-point over/under. The Giants currently rank 21st against the pass per DVOA.

Danny Amendola/$4,700 vs. Philadelphia

It sounds as if Amendola will be ready to go this week, and has actually been described as looking “sudden” on his routes in practice. Assuming he doesn’t experience a setback, Amendola becomes pretty much a lock as he’ll likely see an other-worldly amount of targets with Gronk sidelined.

Other Considerations: A.J. Green/$7,600 @ Cleveland, Amari Cooper/$6,900 vs. Kansas City, Martavis Bryant/$5,600 vs. Indianapolis

GPP

Deandre Hopkins/$8,800 @ Buffalo

Like I mentioned earlier, I love Hopkins in any format this week but you’d be silly not to roll him out in some tournaments this week. The dud last week will drive his ownership down, and his matchup with Buffalo is excellent as the Bills defense funnels their opponents attack to the passing game.

Tight End

Cash

Delanie Walker/$5,700 vs. Jacksonville

With Gronk likely out this week, Walker is probably going to be the chalk play at tight end. He’s easily Mariota’s favorite target and has five or more catches in all but three games this season. Jacksonville is almost dead last against the tight end per DVOA, surrendering an average of 8.5 catches and 71.5 yards to the position per game.

Scott Chandler/$2,500 vs. Philadelphia

If Walker isn’t the chalk play this week, then it’s certainly going to be Chandler – at minimum price, who is set to fill in for Gronk. Chandler is far from Gronk on a talent basis, but New England has made a dynasty by turning nobody’s into somebody’s. He won’t wow us with his athleticism, but Chandler is a big, physical presence who can use is size to get open and Brady will find him. I expect Amendola to be the clear leader in targets, but Chandler should see around 8-10 himself.

Other Considerations: Travis Kelce/$4,700 @ Oakland

GPP

Julius Thomas/$4,000 @ Tennessee

Many will likely be ready to roll Thomas out in cash games after his last two games, but I’m not quite ready to chase those points yet. However, he’s still an excellent tournament option as Blake Bortles is clearly looking his way more often, and he’ll be facing a Titans team allowing eight catches and 60 yards on average to the tight end position per game.

Defense

Chicago/$2,600 vs. San Francisco

Most of the higher priced defenses are on the road this week, and while several of them certainly still make fine cash game plays, I’d rather roll the dice a little, get some nice salary relief, and go with a home team in Chicago who’s favorited by six points to a Blaine Gabbert-led offense. Wile their secondary certainly lacks teeth, the Bears front line can get after the passer, and should force a couple of turnovers.

Minnesota/2,600 vs. Seattle

The Vikings make for an excellent tournament option this week, as many players will likely see their matchup with Seattle and think of Russell Wilson carving up the Steelers last week. The Seahawks will now be without Jimmy Graham and facing an underrated Minnesota secondary. Additionally, the Vikings have an excellent pass rush and should be able to carve through the Seattle offensive line like a hot knife through butter.

 

 

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