Under Further Review – Week 8

StanfordOfficialReview2007

Under Further Review is a new series that we’re starting in FakePigSkin.com to take a look at the calls of the weeks by big websites, such as NFL.com, CBS.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com. Before anyone thinks this is an attempt to paint the big names in a negative light, it isn’t. We all make bad calls and good calls from week to week. This article is to look into the expert’s process and reasoning. Sometimes good process ends with bad results, and other instances bad process result in good outcomes. I will be doing some initial predictions about which calls will most likely come true or not. While these articles are released as a hindsight article, it is up to you to believe whether I made these calls before I knew about the results or not.

Our tour brings us back to CBSSports.com to Mr. Eisenberg. In week 2, when we last looked at CBS, Jamey had the misfortune of a weird week…or at least that is what the recap said. Let’s see if he does better this week in his process. Jamey uses a blend of matchup and game scripts to make his calls in his start/sit columns.

Start of the Week:

Phillip Rivers – Rivers lead all QB in attempts with a near ~70% completion rate. Going against an awful Ravens DST, who has been destroyed by players such as Kaepernick, McCown, and Carr. He’ll at the least have a high floor

Start QBs

  • Andy Dalton – Coming off a bye, a top 5 QB per game basis, will probably have a good floor game
  • Eli Manning – Despite a bad performance last week, he’ll be looking to bounce back on the road at New Orleans. Jamey is not sold on the Saints defense
  • Cam Newton – The Colts defense may have held Brees to only 15 fpts. But as a whole, the defense is very generous in giving up fantasy points
  • Matthew Stafford – Chiefs has not been good in the secondary, and only were able to stop a Roethlisberger-less Pitt team. Stafford will have a high floor game
  • Sleepers: Hoyer, Cutler, Fitzpatrick

Sits at QB

  • Peyton Manning – How long has it been since Peyton was a sit call? He has not looked good all year, and Packers are a disruptive team up front. Lacking the OL, Peyton is in trouble
  • Colin Kaepernick – The lows are very low for Mr. Kaep. Rams defense won’t allow Kaep to rely on his feet
  • Russell Wilson – The OL is still atrocious and Seattle can’t really get the passing game going. Cowboys are a strong QB pressure team. So add that along with a sieve like OL, and you should understand why Seattle will want Lynch to be the guy
  • Derek Carr – He’s been very good in a lot of games this year. However, when you’re facing the Jets squad who are top 5 in both pass and run defense, you can pretty much turn off the carr.
  • Jameis Winston – Despite Atlanta’s mediocrity on offense, the defense is quietly very good. They have only allowed two quarterbacks to score for more than 18 points this season. Jameis is also down to just one talented receiving target

Start’em

  • Chris Johnson – This is a soft matchup, and Chris Johnson seems to have found the fountain of youth
  • Jonathan Stewart – When you try to look for what team has a easy run matchup Colts won’t be far away from the top of your list. Stewart is the bellcow, let him run
  • Charcanderick West – Can we trust him? Jamey says yes, because Detroit has allowed seven running backs to score double digits in fantasy so basically one rushing TD per game
  • Danny Woodhead – The Chargers have seemingly went into self-preservation mode by benching their 1st round rookie and instead rely on Woodhead. Rivers and Woodhead will make music together this week
  • Giovanni Bernard – Bernard is seemingly the lead fantasy back between him and Hill in the Bengals backfield. This is a good matchup too
  • Sleepers: Antonio Andrews, Duke Johnson, Alfred Blue, Orleans Darkwa, Charles Sims

Sits’em

  • Carlos Hyde – (disclaimer he’s already ruled out)
  • CJ Anderson – He has yet to reach 70 total yards
  • Melvin Gordon – seems to be dealing with rookie-ness and ankle injury. Chargers aren’t afraid of letting Oliver and Woodhead take over the game. This is actually a good matchup too
  • Rashad Jennings – He may be the best RB, but he’s the best out of 4 actively used RBs
  • Latavius Murray – He’s been good, but going against the Jets running defense is not someone who you want to gamble on
  • Darren McFadden – His performance last week may have been one of his best ones, but this week he’ll face a Seattle

Receiver Start’em

  • Jeremy Maclin – Detroits secondary is banged up, and Maclin is the only deep threat the Chiefs has on the team.
  • Stefon Diggs – He’s heating up, and this matchup is favorable enough for him to put up decent numbers
  • Kendall Wright – Houston’s passing defense has been less than stellar Wright will find a way to
  • Eric Decker – All he does is score TDs. The only game he didn’t was vs. New England.
  • Martavis Bryant – Big Ben is back, but Martavis has been good before then…well now he can be even better….scary thought
  • Tyler Eifert – Has only one bad/terrible game all year. Continue to roll with him
  • Benjamin Watson – There are worst TE you can take a chance on. Whenever Drew Brees finds his TE, the Saints win.
  • Martellus Bennett – Minnesota has been stout everywhere, so the only “weakness” remaining in that offense is the TE spot.

Sit’em

  • James Jones – He can’t really just be td dependent right? Regression to the mean means something right? Jamey is saying this is the week where Broncos will shut that team down
  • Terrence Williams – This is not the matchup to rely on a boom/bust. Although he’ll probably see less coverage with Dez coming back, we’re still talking Matt Cassell though
  • Travis Benjamin – Benjamin has been stellar this season, but also seem to be slowing down. Against Patrick Peterson, he may be rendered unusable for this week.
  • Willie Snead – Has slowed down a lot since his hot start. Could be a bounce back performance or could be another dud. Too low floor
  • Amari Cooper – He has been a revelation and living up to his expectations. While he has been playing around with upper echelon CBs, he is about to meet the best CB in the NFL. Cross your fingers
  • Gary Barnidge – Arizona has not been kind to TEs, in spite of their history, but Barnidge has been the best TE until this point in the season with no down game. Manziel starting and tough D might be reason enough to sit him though.
  • Eric Ebron – Kansas City may be terrible against the pass and WR, but surprisingly stingy against TEs. Though Ebron has been good when healthy. Play at your own risk
  • Dwayne Allen – He has not been used a lot in the passing game this year. There is even less reason to roll him out against Kuechly and Thomas Davis

My take: Underlying many calls by Jamey Eisenberg is based on high floor. Most of the players listed either has a safe floor for his start calls and dangerous floor for his sit calls. While most analyst do the same thing, I think Jamey has been one of the few analyst who is bold in his calls. While he makes for very compelling cases in his sits, I want to believe Amari Cooper, James Jones, and Eric Ebron will exceed expectations, while Kendall Wright, Martellus Bennett, Chris Johnson, and Eli Manning will disappoint

Results:

This has been an awful week in both the NFL and fantasy. This seems to bear out for Jamey Eisenberg’s call. First, looking at My Take my contrarian believe all proved to be wrong. On film Amari Cooper (4pts) did make Revis look silly, but for fantasy that means very little. Denver proved too much for James Jones (0 pts) and Ebron (2pts) looks more like Enron. Chris Johnson (6 pts) rumbled for a decent day, so he’s not a bad call. But Eli Freaking Manning (38 pts) went HAM on the Saints in a losing effort.

Overall, Jamey has half of his starts correct and the other half of his sits correct.  Particularly interesting about his start call is Danny Woodhead (3 pts) who showed to be a more capable runner than Gordon, but didn’t get the opportunity. His thought process on Latavius Murray (11 pts) and Darren McFadden (10 pts) was correct as they faced the best rushing defense in the league. With that said, it may be time to start considering Murray and McFaddden as defense agnostic, though still capped as a mid-range RB2 from week to week. Similarly, Gary Barnidge (11 pts), wow! Either he gets a TD or 100 yards. But now, it’s Johnny Football time. The chemistry will make him an interesting play consideration for this upcoming week. I’m going off on a limb and say he’s QB-proof and still roll him out in a PPR league. For a standard league, I may just looking elsewhere first.


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