Under Further Review – Week 7

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Under Further Review is a new series that we’re starting in FakePigSkin.com to take a look at the calls of the weeks by big websites, such as NFL.com, CBS.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com. Before anyone thinks this is an attempt to paint the big names in a negative light, it isn’t. We all make bad calls and good calls from week to week. This article is to look into the expert’s process and reasoning. Sometimes good process ends with bad results, and other instances bad process result in good outcomes. I will be doing some initial predictions about which calls will most likely come true or not. While these articles are released as a hindsight article, it is up to you to believe whether I made these calls before I knew about the results or not.

We are headed to Week 6!

I have made slight modification to my UFR article. From now on I will include the rankings of the points allowed by opposing team next to the player’s name. The rankings are based on standard scoring and ranges from 1st – 32nd, with 1st being the stingiest to 32nd being the most generous. The rankings are based on 4for4.com data set.

This week we are putting Talented Mr. Roto under the microscope. His article is uniquely titled Love/Hate, instead of the usual Start/Sit. While the idea is the same, Mr. Berry always had a flair for writing a narrative that is both funny and informative with mediocre fantasy advice. I encourage you to read it every week, if not for the advice then at least for the witty writing.

Quarterback love

  • Matt Ryan (v. 32nd) – Rob Ryan’s defense is not good. Saints has given up more than 22 points a game to QBs so far.
  • Eli Manning (v. 25th) – Eagles has given up 250 yd and at least 1 TD to Cousins, Fitzpatrick, and a little more than a quarter playing time of Brandon Weeden. Expect the team to air it out, since rushing seems like a bad idea v. Eagles
  • Sam Bradford (v. 27th) – Giants is one of the worst team in generating sacks and pressure. Bradford with time in the pocket = top 10 play at QB
  • Jay Cutler (v. 26th) – This is a desperate play. With the potential return of Alshon Jeffery vs. weak Lions DBs
  • Teddy Bridgewater (v. 31st) – Chiefs hasn’t stopped much of QB they’ve faced. Even the aforementioned Jay Cutler dropped some big numbers against this defense.
  • Colin Kaepernick (v. 30th) – Baltimore made Josh McCown a top 5 play

My take: Not surprisingly, like most analyst you want to recommend the not-so-obvious starters against the bottom defense. Berry really picked out the bottom 10 defenses to pick on this week. I’m interested to see what Teddy would do, as I am rolling him out this week based exactly on the matchup (and loss of Tygawd L). I didn’t realize the Giants had such a bad pass rush this year, so I’m looking forward to Bradford to heave in a big haul. Conversely, I’m not a fan of the Eli call, as both his top targets are still uncertain whether they will play or not. Addtionally, Eli’s history is up and down, regardless of Eagle’s seasonal outputs. Kaepernick is intriguing, but I will go against the grain here and say he puts up less than 15 fpts, just a gut feeling to go on.

Quarterback Hate

  • Cam Newton (v. 11th) – has not played well against the Seahawks throughout his career. Seattle much better at home than on the road.
  • Russell Wilson (v. 4th) – Bad offensive line and playing against a top 5 shutdown secondary. Oh and Kuechly’s back. It’s a Lynch game
  • Blake Bortles (v. 28th) – bad shoulder, Blake Bortles does not handle pressure well, and Texans are blitzing on 51% of drop backs.
  • Josh McCown (v. 1st) – Possibly he’ll keep feeding Barnidge to hit Broncos only weakness on defense, but Mr. Berry will not gamble on that.

My Take: I think the only one I’ll disagree here (and maybe foolishly) is the Cam Newton call. Cam’s career against Seattle were when the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom were burgeoning and at it’s peak. Even so, with Bobby Wagner at best questionable, and a secondary that no one is truly afraid of anymore, Cam will have his chance to beat the odds. This will be a ground game, but on Cam’s legs. I get it, you drafted Russell Wilson as one of the top 5 QB this past summer. You’re also unsmart for reaching for a QB that early. It’s time to throw out any emotional attachment you may had have from the draft (heck, should’ve thrown those out the moment the draft ended). Face it, Russell Wilson has not really looked great in any of the games he played so far. He had a couple of pretty throws, but his work on a per game basis were bad overall.

Runningback love

  • Darren Sproles (v. 11th) – PPR leagues Eddie Lacy (v. 30th) – Feels like a wasted 1st round? This could be the game for him to turn it around against a Chargers team that let both Browns RB put up enormous points on them.
  • Dion Lewis & Blount (v. 19th) – Patriots enjoy running all over the Colts. They have done it back to back years with lesser talents. This year they have at least 2 guys who has been tearing it up in the fantasy world. Oh, and New England has no problem running up the score
  • Duke Johnson Jr. (v. 12th) – A pass catching back, and Broncos are one of the weaker teams against pass catching backs
  • CJ Anderson (v. 31st) – Hillman is hurt with hamstring, and Cleveland can’t stop the run. Still recommended a flex play.
  • Theo Riddick (v. 5th) – PPR play
  • Lamar Miller (v. 7th) – How will new coach use Lamar (ESPN has Titans 23rd against run)
  • Melvin Gordon (v. 20th) – Break out game coming?

My take: I agree that it is time for Fat Eddie to eat. He must be starving after all this time. San Diego is not stopping the run game whatsoever. As of this writing, I’m trying to guess which of the two backs from New England will destroy Colts. My best guess it’s probably Blount, but you’re not sitting Dion Lewis this week (unless his injury holds him back). I cannot and will not bring myself to trust CJ Anderson. He could have a good game, and I still won’t feel bad for missing out.

Runningback hate:

  • DeMarco Murray (v.11th) – Murray’s history vs. Giants has not been great. Giants have also allowed 2nd- fewest rush yards/game. Murray needs volume, but won’t get it with Mathews and Sproles around
  • Jonathan Stewart (v. 2nd) – Despite his workhorse status, Stewart hasn’t even produced against weaker competition. Not expecting him to do anything against Seattle
  • Jeremy Hill (v. 10th) – Hoping for a reverse Jinx, but Bills rush d has been stout all year long
  • Alfred Morris (v. 6th) – Split workload vs. Jets no Thanks
  • Charcandrick West (v. 26th) – Vikings defense has been very good. You’re basically hoping for a long run for West to have any real value

My take: Hard to argue against any of these calls. Statistically though, I’m sure one will be a bad one. But on Friday, Oct 16th, 2015 at 1:35PM EST, I have very low expectations for all of these RBs.

Receiver love

  • Brandon Marshall (v. 14th ) – Off bye, at home, volume, there is just no Washington CB who can cover Marshall
  • Keenan Allen (v. 16th ) – Double-digit target guy
  • Jarvis Landry (v. 12th) – Leads NFL in Red Zone targets
  • Mike Wallace (v. 32nd) – See Teddy
  • Leonard Hankerson (v.19th) – See Matt Ryan
  • Antonio Gates (v. 9th) – Continued love from Rivers
  • Greg Olsen (v. 28th) – Tyler Eifert destroyed them, Olsen can do the same
  • Jordan Cameron (v. 20th) – Averaging 15.5

Widereceiver hate

  • DeSean Jackson and Garcon (v. 6th) – Revis Isle
  • Travis Benjamin (v. 5th) – Tough matchup
  • Sammy Watkins (v. 23rd) – Tyrod Taylor may not play, and relying on EJ Manuel is just plain foolish
  • Jimmy Graham (v. 10th) – Panthers allowed fewest TE points
  • Gary Barnidge (v. 15th) – Not confident in McCown no confidence in Barnidge

My take: I’ll just be lazy and make a quick summary. I am playing Marshall regardless of the ranking of the defense. He really looks like his old dominant self. I’m not sure I like Mike Wallace even with the weak matchup, but Teddy Bridgewater should be decent so I guess as a flex play.

 

Results:

All fantasy points are reflective of a standard league (4pt pass TD, nonPPR)*

Teddy Bridgewater (9 pts) finished with the same points as Peyton Manning. If you’re listening to your video or watching your sports channel on Monday morning, you’ll hear about how atrocious Peyton has been. Imagine Teddy finishing in that range vs. the 31st passing defense. If you haven’t yet, it’s time to shut it down for Teddy. He will win the Vikings games, just not your fantasy team. Granted, TMR did state that Teddy is a desperate play. Now, where blame is abound, it’s also fair to give him credit. Kaepernick (22 pts) finished inside the top 10 this week. What a great outing against the hapless Ravens team who are probably for all intent and purposes eliminated from playoff contention. As of this writing, the MNF game hasn’t started yet, so it bears to see if he belongs in the love section. Cam Newton (19 pts) was one of the guys who I disagreed on with Mr. Berry, and I’m glad I stuck to my guns (I even started him in a couple of leagues ahead of Carson Palmer). There are two lessons to be learned here: 1. Cam is good for fantasy; 2. Seattle defense is not to be feared.

Brutal week of RB love calls for Mr. Berry, Eddie Lacy (1 pt.),  Dion Lewis (3 pts), CJ Anderson (3 pts), Melvin Gordon (0 pt.) all finished so low, that you would’ve been better off taking a chance on a random guy from the waiver wire. I’m pretty sure no one thought this was remotely possible, but certainly I would suspect the starting % for each of these players were extremely high. To add salt to the wound Jonathan Stewart (19 pts.), who was on the hate list, fell into not one but TWO short yard Touchdowns…what the hell Cam, I thought you were supposed to sneak them all. Lamar Miller (17 pts) and LeGarrette Blount (22 pts) however, were excellent start recommendations this week, and particularly for your DFS.

Like many of us, I think it’s time to stop hating on Gary Barnidge (15 pts). For the 4th straight week, he has been a top 10 TE, and McCown continues to pepper him with target. Barnidge is a big target and finally showed good hands that he has never shown prior to this year. Overall, Matthew Berry made very astute calls on the receiving love and hate. Jimmy Graham (14 pts) is the only guy who has really over produced his projection. Perhaps Mr. Berry is better at predicting receivers than runners? Should play more PPR leagues then

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