NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 6

NFL Eliminator Challenge

Welcome to the sixth week of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. Last week the Flacons gave us a bit of a scare, but in overtime got us the victory we needed to get our streak to five. In our secondary picks, once again we went 1-1 as the Packers were able to take care of business, but the Chiefs fell apart in the final minute of their game. Time to go for six!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last week we got to enjoy three division matchups, one decided by seven points, one by six, and one by three in overtime. Not many people expected Denver to only win by six, or for Cleveland to continue Baltimore’s losing streak, in Baltimore, but sometimes the unexpected happens in these games. Division games are just too entertaining to put your eliminator season on one. Follow my number one rule: avoid the below division games:

  • Atlanta at New Orleans
  • NY Giants at Philadelphia
  • Chicago at Detroit
  • Houston at Jacksonville

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. There were three prime time games last week. One was decided by seven points, one by four, and one by three. Just like the division matchups, all three prime time games were decided by one touchdown or less. We even witnessed the 49ers score more than seven points for only the second time this season, and they put up a whopping 27! Looks like the networks are finally starting to get their prime time matchups right, good for television, bad for eliminator leagues. Unless you want to take a chance I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Atlanta at New Orleans
  • New England at Indianapolis
  • NY Giants at Philadelphia

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

OK, we can’t win them all. While the division matchups and prime time games were as close as expected, the home field advantage wasn’t as apparent last weekend as we are used to. Surprisingly, the away team won eight of fourteen games last week with victories by teams such as Chicago, Cleveland, Buffalo, and even a Mike Vick led Steelers team. That being said I expect last week to be more fluke than trend, and where possible I’m still sticking with the home team. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Cincinnati at Buffalo
  • Denver at Cleveland
  • Arizona at Pittsburgh

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

Green Bay over San Diego

Green Bay’s home field advantage is something that is very underrated in the NFL. You often hear how loud and devastating places are such as Seattle and Kansas City, but did you know the Packers went 8-0 at home last season and are currently 3-0 this season? Aaron Rodgers always plays some of his best football in Lambeau and with an expected temperature drop in the forecast, the warm-blooded chargers may be in trouble. I’m going with the hot hand this week and picking the 5-0 Packers.

Other options I like this week:

NY Jets over Washington

I never thought I’d see the day where I picked the Jets to be an eliminator pick twice in a season, but the truth is this is a well-coached team with an amazing defense. On the other side of the ball will be a Washington team that can’t get out of their own way. I expect the Jets defense to get multiple turnovers this weekend and easily win this game in front of their home crowd.

Seattle over Carolina

You may think I’m crazy for this one, and maybe I am, but I just don’t believe in the Carolina Panthers, and I think Pete Carroll is too good of a coach to not right the ship in Seattle this weekend. The Seahawks had a devastating loss last week and the fact that they are coming home to one of the best home field advantages with a healthy Lynch expecting to play makes me think that this could mark the Panthers first loss of the season.

Thanks for reading!

 

Feel free to follow me for great fantasy football advice on twitter @DE_aaron

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