NFL 2015: DFS Strategy and Musing From Five Weeks

DFS killer of dreams

So you are playing DFS because you think it is easier?  It isn’t.  Think of it this way: in traditional fantasy you have 11-12 weeks to weather the storm of unpredictability.  In DFS you have one day.  This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t play.  On the contrary, you play for the possible game changing payout.  You play for the opportunity to say you beat 1000 other fantasy players.  So play on player.

And as you play keep these three philosophies/strategies in mind.

1. Bad Defense versus Mediocre Offense

Even a bad defense cannot make a sub-par player on an average offense a superstar.  And in DFS you need Superstar performances from at least 85 percent of your line-up.

Case in point: Everywhere you turned in week 5, almost every single fantasy expert was telling you to play Denver Broncos’ tight-end Owen Daniels against the Oakland Raiders because they were terrible against tight-ends.  How did that work out for you?   Yes, Daniels had one touchdown in the two games before meeting the Raiders.  But if you are thinking clearly, you realize the Broncos offense isn’t very good right now.  Daniels has been used to block because the offensive line is a bit porous.  His receiving upside is a downside.

So when looking at your match-ups, be realistic.  Which brings us to number 2.

2. Your goal in DFS is to make order out of chaos

You have heard of the chaos theory and/or the butterfly effect? And no this is not a reference to Ashton Kutcher’s subpar film.  This chaos theory is the theory that a very small change in initial conditions can create a significantly different outcome.  And every week in the NFL there are initial changes in conditions.  Your mission should you accept it is to attempt to diminish the infinite amount of changes that happen each week.

Case in point:  Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Andre Johnson had given fantasy players no hope.  But look, he is going up against the team that let him go.  Going against the only other team he had ever played.  And he was going to be receiving passes from an old school quarterback who understood Johnson’s need to be good in this game.  And BAM, Johnson was good.

So each week make as much logic you can out of the randomness.  You won’t be able to control it but you will be able to make it a little less chaotic and your line-up a DFS contender.

3. Different DFS games need different strategies

Play feature games.  Play tournament games.  And play 50/50 and multipliers.  But remember the line-up that will put you in the money for the 50/50, will not necessarily net you that payday in the tournament games

In 50/50 you only have to beat half of those entered.  You want a line-up that is solid, minimal chaos and players that are steady.

In tournament and features you want a contrarian line-up.  It still needs to be solid, but with a little more chaos and those sleepers that no one else is considering.

So play on…but remember to think before you submit.

 

Follow me on Twitter @neverenoughglt

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