Quarter Check my Quarterbacks

fantasy football

We are at the quarter mark of the NFL football season. That means it’s time to Quarter Check what we thought we knew about the Quarterbacks coming into the season and make decisions for rest of season championship run. Just in one month, our 2-QB/SupFlex world was turned upside down. Just when you thought that you can ride Andrew Luck to your playoff shot or you became pleasantly surprised that you yolo’d and took a chance on rookie Marcus Mariota, the fantasy world is just as predictable as Alice’s Wonderland.

I’ll try to balance this article with redraft info, while giving you some ideas for dynasty. I’m also basing my writing on my pre-season ranking

My bad:

I was one of those few who thought Andrew Luck was a lock for my QB spot. But this superman is not another Manning. On top of his disappointing starts (which happens every year), he missed two divisional games that had soft defense. So, his redraft value, based on where he was taken, is at an all time low. The window to buy him in redraft is wider than dynasty. I am a fan of playing on people’s emotions, so if you can flip like a Matt Ryan and something for him, I would definitely try. Other top end QBs marred by injury were Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tony Romo.

Ryan Tannehill and  Andy Dalton are bad calls by me for different reason. I got caught up in the Dolphins hype (they have this weird magic that always to suck us fans in to disappoint). So far, his best game has been only decent. He’s not connecting consistently with Stills, Jennings, Cameron, or Parker. Play call has been overly disastorous. While the firing of Philbin will only garner optimism, it’s still better the have tempered expectations for Tannehill. On the flip side, Dalton is on fire. It seems like he’s finally using all the weapons around him in optimal fashion. Even in games where Bengals falls behind, there is now a sense that Dalton and the Bengals (an indy rockband name too) can make a furious comeback. There are not many NFL teams who can shutdown AJG, Marvin Jones, Sanu, Eifert, Bernard, or Hill. This will be one of the rare instances where I am recommending to go and trade for Dalton for this year (dynasty is a different discussion). If you are more of a believer in regression to the mean, then this advice is probably not to be taken.

Carson Palmer, looking back at my ranking I have Carson ranked way too low, even in a dynasty league. He looks spry and like the old pre-Tommy John surgery self. He’s also elevating that offense and turned the Cardinals into a point scoring juggernaut. Outside of the Bengals, Zona might actually have the same amount of weapons to utilize. There are some minor signs of chink in the armor showing, so I will be more cautious about buying Carson in a dynasty, but I am more than willing to trade up from my Romo, Brees, or Peyton to get Palmer.

Liking what I see:

Tygawd Taylor – I was one of the biggest doubter of Tygawd…until I watched 2 of his games. Tygawd is not just an athlete playing QB. He’s actually showing QB competent skills in processing defense and making sound decision. It’s not perfect, and it is still a far cry to call him a sure thing. In redraft or comepetitive teams, I will buy him. He reminds me of the fantasy surge of Nick Foles, Josh Freeman, Colin Kaepernick, Vince Young, and Michael Vick. In a dynasty sense, he also reminds me that his long-term value is probably about the same as those guys I mentioned.

Derek Carr – I had never been a big fan of Derek Carr. Part of this non-fandom is probably my supporting campagne of Teddy Bridgewater. In the fantasy world though, I need to keep in mind that poinst are all that matters in the end of the day. Carr will be up and down as the season goes by, so don’t be surprised if he puts up 300 yd one week, just to have a let down of 150 yd the following week. However, if your team is solid all around, Carr is not a bad QB to have as your starter. He’s a buy in dynasty, and well within reasonable value.

Marcus Mariota/Jameis Winston – Their contrast in style is really showing up. Mariota has been a machine over the last month. Even in a losing gam effort, he still puts up good stats. And when all the cylinder is clicking, Mariota can surgically destroy a NFL defense. While it is exciting, I will closely monitor his development. Right now Mariota is flourishing in a college scheme (kudos to Titans’ flexibility), but these gimmicks don’t usually last, just ask RG3 and Tim Tebow. As far as Jameis and his butter finger, what he has put up so far is surprising to no one who knows Jameis well. He is making a lot of mistakes and is showing a stupid amount bad decision making. I will preach patience with Jameis and not buy into the Jamarcus Russel 2.0 narrative. If you had asked anyone, I’m very anti-anything FSU. But for Jameis, I am willing to wait on him. He will be the reason why the team is winning or losing, and that will carry over to your fantasy team.

Tooting my own horn:

During the offseason, I had quite the discussion on twitter with @LaketwoQB about Mr. Cam Newton. It was looking dire for me when Kelvin Benjamin suffered a season ending injury. But that didn’t deter Cam at all. As of week 4, Cam is the top 3 QB ranked and doing this without the help of Benjamin. Even Olsen and JStew’s stats were not reflective of the success that Cam is enjoying. Cam is looking like his top-5 finish self again. Running in the RZ and making long throws to Tedd Ginn Jr. and Corey Brown. At this point I have no issue putting Cam Newton as the #3 dynasty QB asset after Luck and Aaron Rodgers.

Matthew Stafford has been nothing short of a disappointment. I thought I was low on him in the preseason, but now looking at it I wasn’t low enough. Stafford’s lack of development and reliance on instinct and undisciplined gunslinging style is really hurting himself, the team, and Megatron. There really is very little that separates Stafford’s development with that of Colin Kaepernick. I’m not saying they are the same kind of QB, but I’m talking solely about their trajectory in their development. Undiscipliness is the primary theme here, and that is bad in the NFL.

Looking ahead to rest of season (redraft):

  • If you have the bench spots and not very confident that your QB will have sustained success (e.g., Bortles, Andy Dalton, Peyton, Tannehill), go and pick up the following guys who are currently forgotten or have a negative label.
    • Johnny Manziel – I have absolutely no confidence that Josh McCown keeps the job. It’s only a matter of time. I am encouraged about the small positive progress Johnny has taken, but he’s really not only waiting for injury, he’s also have to overcome coaches
    • Brian Hoyer – Mallet has showed his ineptitude far too many times. This past TNF will be a pivotal point in the season for Houston. Mallet couldn’t muster up any points against ATL and Indy, but once Hoyer stepped in, the team was scoring on average 21 points.
    • Jameis Winston – I think the mistakes will be less and less as the season progresses. He may not be winning games, but he is learning while bullets are whizzing by. Some QBs learn through practice repetition, but others like Mr. Crablegs, learns in-game.
    • Nick Foles – I can’t believe I’m actually recommending the guy that I absolutely chewed out for the last two years. But Cignetti’s offense is working, not perfectly, but it’s working with Foles. I am also intrigued by 4for4.com article that teams that came out throwing in week one, will sustain a high volume offense through the rest of the season. It is very possible for Foles to be counted among those

 

Looking ahead to rest of season (dynasty):

  • Season is looking bleak? Salary cap got you sweating about losing player X in the future? Look to pickup/acquire these QBs for your future.
    • Brock Osweiler – Whether Peyton wins or losses, it si quite clear that Broncos also have the future in mind. Osweiler fits Kubiak’s offense better, and that was clear in the offseason. Broncos are in the midst of tinkering with a hybrid offense now, but once Manning moves on, I like Osweiler’s chances as a good contributing QB.
    • Garrett Grayson – Drew Brees missed time. The identity of the Saints are changing as well. Brees’ end of career is approaching faster than I had anticipated. He looks his age now, and even if he finishes this season on a high note. I have less confidence that he can sustain this for another 2-3 years. Grayson’s draft status (while not guaranteeing anything) is a signal that he’s being prepared. Buy now while people aren’t even paying attention.
    • Jimmy Garrappolo – Jimmy is no Brady. He can’t even hold Brady’s jock. But he has game experience and looked more comptent than most 2nd-string QBs. I can see Brady trying to push for 5 more years, but I’m not banking on it. When Belicheck goes, so does Brady.
    • Teams that will be looking for QBs in 2016: Philadelphia, Washington, Bears, 49ers, Buffalo, Jets, Browns, and Chiefs

 

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